IN-05 2020: Should Democrats aggressively target Rep. Susan Brooks in 2020?

[Suburbia]

Rep. Susan Brooks (R-IN-05) represents the affluent Indianapolis suburbs of Hamilton County and those areas. Her fellow Republican, state Sen. Mike Delph, one of Indiana's well-known Republicans lost to a gay white Democrat in the GOP fortress!!

Should Democrats target Brooks in 2020?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_5th_congressional_district

[lfromnj]

Aggresively?
No because its mostly defensive in 2020
But Donnely actually won this district so its a target.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Aggresively?
No because its mostly defensive they probably can't win a house race in this district.
But Donnely actually won this district so its a target.

FTFY

[wesmoorenerd]

Not sure where the "2020 wholly defensive election" thing came from because the Dems still have plenty of viable targets in 2020. NY-24, TX-23, PA-01, NE-02, IL-13, TX-24, GA-07, OH-01, and whatever redistricting puts on the table in NC are all viable targets.

Anyway, as to IN-05, no. That's a bridge too far.

[lfromnj]

Not sure where the "2020 wholly defensive election" thing came from because the Dems still have plenty of viable targets in 2020. NY-24, TX-23, PA-01, NE-02, IL-13, TX-24, GA-07, OH-01, and whatever redistricting puts on the table in NC are all viable targets.

Anyway, as to IN-05, no. That's a bridge too far.

its not a bridge too far if its a wave year like 08 or 80.
Joe Donnely won it while losing his home district
LOL.
Its basically Mo 2nd placed in Indiana.

[Xing]

Not aggressively, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

[Badger]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

[Tekken_Guy]

Target? Yes. Aggressively? Probably not.

The rurals will still probably offset any gains the Dems will have in the Hamilton/Marion/Boone areas. I still see it as the Hoosier equivalent of Balderson’s or Wagner’s districts, and they both won only narrowly. If they invested in Thornton as much as they did in O’Connor or even VanOstran, she could have gotten within single digits of Brooks.

[lfromnj]

Target? Yes. Aggressively? Probably not.

The rurals will still probably offset any gains the Dems will have in the Hamilton/Marion/Boone areas. I still see it as the Hoosier equivalent of Balderson’s or Wagner’s districts, and they both won only narrowly. If they invested in Thornton as much as they did in O’Connor or even VanOstran, she could have gotten within single digits of Brooks.

Clearly dems should invest in In 9th a Trump +26 district and In 2nd a trump +24 district than the Trump +12 trending D suburban district.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It may well be the most winnable district in IN for Dems to pick up, but that is not really saying much.

It is definitely worth recruiting a decent candidate in and seeing how they can do though. If the national environment turns out right and the Dem nominee is winning in a 2008 type wave, it could be interesting if Dems have made the right preparation laying the groundwork. It is in some ways pretty similar to OH-15, as well as MO-02.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Absolutely.

[Tintrlvr]

Can't hurt to at least try to get a strong recruit.

[Orser67]

No, this type of seat would be a waste of resources unless 2020 is a landslide. Focus on defending incumbents and targeting swing seats (i.e. seats where the Democratic presidential candidate will come within ~5 points of the national popular vote average) instead.

[ElectionsGuy]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

You say that as if Democrats should easily be able to perform better than Donnelly.

[lfromnj]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

You say that as if Democrats should easily be able to perform better than Donnelly.

Tbf donnely was an idiot trying to appeal to rural hicks. A more suburban oriented campaign can win this district. These voters wanted to vote for him but he said build the wall

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

You say that as if Democrats should easily be able to perform better than Donnelly.

Tbf donnely was an idiot trying to appeal to rural hicks. A more suburban oriented campaign can win this distrift. These voters wanted to vote for him but he said build the wall

[MycroftCZ]

I mean, probably not aggressively but definitely keep an eye out for it. Democrats have been doing increasingly well in it...

Really depends on candidate quality.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Rep. Terri Austin of Anderson could run. She could help flip Madison back to the dems and continue eroding GOP margins in Hamilton

[IceSpear]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

Because not every year is going to be a D+9 Democratic wave.

[lfromnj]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

Because not every year is going to be a D+9 Democratic wave.

tbf this is one district they should compete. They just forgot to recruit a candidate. You kept MO 2 as competetive so IMO this should be just be just as competetive
The districts are very similar
Suburban
Pretty republican
Only districts in their states to swing towards Clinton
Each has a GOP women as the incumbent.
States in general are trending fast R>=.

[IceSpear]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

Because not every year is going to be a D+9 Democratic wave.

tbf this is one district they should compete. They just forgot to recruit a candidate. You kept MO 2 as competetive so IMO this should be just be just as competetive
The districts are very similar
Suburban
Pretty republican
Only districts in their states to swing towards Clinton
Each has a GOP women as the incumbent.
States in general are trending fast R>=.

I mean, Brooks won by 14 while Wagner won by 4.

[lfromnj]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

Because not every year is going to be a D+9 Democratic wave.

tbf this is one district they should compete. They just forgot to recruit a candidate. You kept MO 2 as competetive so IMO this should be just be just as competetive
The districts are very similar
Suburban
Pretty republican
Only districts in their states to swing towards Clinton
Each has a GOP women as the incumbent.
States in general are trending fast R>=.

I mean, Brooks won by 14 while Wagner won by 4.

yeah In 5th is a bit to the right(like by a point or two) but a lot of the reason is due the dems targeting of the seats. Indiana dems wanted to win the #populists in the 2nd and 9th district instead of the 5th district. I don't think its super competetive but Joe Donnely won it while Mcaskill won the 2nd and both were won by similar amounts by relatively similar campaigns(appealing to hicks instead of burbs)

[ElectionsGuy]

May I ask why this is so Out Of Reach if even Donnelly won it?

You say that as if Democrats should easily be able to perform better than Donnelly.

Tbf donnely was an idiot trying to appeal to rural hicks. A more suburban oriented campaign can win this distrift. These voters wanted to vote for him but he said build the wall

So they voted Republican? This makes no sense. Y'all think Donnelly would've done better if he had run a more progressive and socially liberal campaign, but why would they vote for a conservative Republican if indeed these people are socially liberal/economic moderate suburbanites. It would be like a choice between bad and worse, you'd vote for bad.

And I'm not going to buy that they stayed home as this election had record midterm turnout.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I should rephrase it. It shouldn't be aggressively targeted, but we should keep an eye on it! Based on the high turnout in this midterm, I fail to see how the result will be much different in 2020. Keep in mind Donnelly focused mainly on rural voters and not here and he still won the district! Trump is not popular in this region and he most likely will remain unpopular here in 2020! Pence's homestate effect will wear off as well! Might I also add that Dee Thornton was never regarded as a serious candidate and raised little money!
 This could definitely come into play