Mission 2022.

[MillennialModerate]

Really if we are to have any hope of the SCOTUS staying with the current balance then I think winning the White House is an absolute must in 2020 because of Ginsburgs age. But then there’s the other side to all that - the Senate. (It’s obviously not a sure thing the Senate confirms a nominee if the other party is in the White House. It used to be a sure thing because it was called being fair and called being bipartisan but it’s not any more). Then there’s the fact that taking the Senate makes it possible to pass some real interesting and serious legislation.

So how do the Democrats win the Senate? The main problem I see is the political sentiment. Looking at the maps it seems POSSIBLE to take it back in 2022, but because most of the states are swing states you’d have to have political sentiment on the Dems side. Now for that to happen they almost def need to NOT be in the White House... right? Is there any chance the Dems win the White House and have a POSITIVE 2022 midterm?

Because looking at the map:

2020:
GOP gains Alabama, DEMS gain Colorado & Maine.
You really aren’t going to see the Dems gain anything else, so 52-48 going into 2022.

2022:
DEMS gain: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

That brings it to 50-50, Democrats break the tie with the Vice Presidents vote.


... So, how likely is it the Dems get the Senate back?

[Person Man]

Probably when the next recession causes a D wave.

[Zaybay]

I feel that I should just establish that the Ds can pick up the 4 seats needed to take the senate in 2020, but it seems that the question is whether the Ds can pull a 2018, losing house seats but making gains in the senate. And the question really is, what happens after 2020? Does WI, MI, and PA swing hard D? Well, WI and PA may give Ds their senate seat. Does the D flip GA and NC? Well, those seats might become competitive. Does Grassley retire? That could be on the map, then.

The Ds really have no where to go, but up. Their vulnerable list consists of:
-NH
-......CO, I guess?

So it is possible that the Ds gain in the senate come 2022. But it should be noted that that is 4 years from now, so its ill-advised to make a prediction this far out.

[lfromnj]

Do people forget az 2020. It's probably Tilt d by now

[Person Man]

If Trump wins, they will take the senate in 2022. If he loses, they take it in 2020.

[pantsaregood]

Democrats are more likely to pick up NC in 2020 than ME. Tillis only won by 1.5% in a decent R year.

[Gustaf]

Democrats are going to struggle in the senate for a while I Think. Politics is partisan, polarized and nationalized. And in a neutral Environment Republicans lead in states about 30-20 or so. Now, to be fair, I don't Think we have a neutral Environment with Trump. But even so it seems tough.

If you assume a uniform swing from 2016 and a D+5 environment Republicans still lead 26-24, so 52-48 in the senate.

You can obviously play around with this a bit and there are a lot of other factors that come into play but just in general Democrats need a lot of things to break their way to have any kind of shot at the senate.

[Person Man]

Democrats are going to struggle in the senate for a while I Think. Politics is partisan, polarized and nationalized. And in a neutral Environment Republicans lead in states about 30-20 or so. Now, to be fair, I don't Think we have a neutral Environment with Trump. But even so it seems tough.

If you assume a uniform swing from 2016 and a D+5 environment Republicans still lead 26-24, so 52-48 in the senate.

You can obviously play around with this a bit and there are a lot of other factors that come into play but just in general Democrats need a lot of things to break their way to have any kind of shot at the senate.

Like I said. People are being paid off right now. When the gravy runs out, those who are voting on identity politics but otherwise persuadable when it becomes apparent they can't afford to identify as the "winners", or as "normal" anymore. Just look at Indiana 08 compared to 04.

[Zaybay]

Democrats are going to struggle in the senate for a while I Think. Politics is partisan, polarized and nationalized. And in a neutral Environment Republicans lead in states about 30-20 or so. Now, to be fair, I don't Think we have a neutral Environment with Trump. But even so it seems tough.

If you assume a uniform swing from 2016 and a D+5 environment Republicans still lead 26-24, so 52-48 in the senate.

You can obviously play around with this a bit and there are a lot of other factors that come into play but just in general Democrats need a lot of things to break their way to have any kind of shot at the senate.

For now, yes, but you are going off the 2016 result. Its possible that a neutral environment includes MI, PA, and WI, meaning the divide is actually 23-27. And that isnt even factoring in AZ, GA, and other states that might make the transition. Then again, the Ds also have states that could leave the coalition, such as NH, and ME.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, of course, that's the scenario now. But, Dems are gonna competete all over. Especially, if the 2019 Gubernatorial election, promise KY and MS for the Dems.

Dems can put IA, KY and KS into play. Due to fact Grimes, or Jim Gray promises to run against McConnell, if KY does appeal to be more bluer.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

No in reality the Senate is 2020 or bust.

The democrats have an outside chance of nagging a net of 3 seats in 2020 and that is their best chance of taking the chamber for a while. The easiest path for dems is probably CO,  NC, ME, AZ while losing AL. This leaves them at a 50-50 senate were any liberal policy survives at the whims of Joe Manchin and any opening could provide disastrous for the dems.

50-50 is probably the best the Democrats can expect in 2020 as they have to defend 3 potentially vulnerable seats of their own, MI, NH, MN and the only real other openings TX, IA, GA probably start as at best lean R.

The democrats are unlikely to net senate seats in a year where they hold the white house. The republicans in 2022 are only holding seats in red or purple seats and Wolf in PA is likely there only chance for a Rick Scott. The democrats would have to defend NH and AZ with lessened Latino midterm turnout. I just don't see it happening given the seats that are up.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pathway to 50/50 senate

CO, ME, IA

one of the following: AZ, NC, KY(McConnell goes down, should Dem win big next year in KY), KS  are the 4th pickup opportunity, should they lose AL

[Peanut]

If Trump wins, they will take the senate in 2022. If he loses, they take it in 2020.

This. There's a very decent chance 2020 ends up being D+3 (we aren't going to lose MN, and I have a hard time seeing Shaheen and Peters going down. They held on in 2014, they'll hold on in 2020.) Strong Likely D, Moderate Likely D, and Slightly Less Likely D, respectively.

Jones is DOA. Likely R, barring Roy Moore.

I'm not as bearish on ME as other people seem to be. May be only my hate of Collins, but I could see her going down jn a general. Tossup seems fine.

I believe Iowa is Tilt R, not quite Lean. IA is an elastic State with a 75% D House delegation by 2020. Ernst is meh. A good Democrat without that Des Moines, urban feel can take her down.

CO is... well, Gardner's toast. Likely D, though slightly less likely to flip than AL.

NC is a reasonable target. Tillis is not a strong incumbent and that seat seems to hate incumbents for some reason. I believe he goes down.

AZ is a pure Tossup at this stage. Depending on the R candidate, I believe it flips.

This would take us to D+4, enough for an outright majority, but even then it's likely one of Tillis, Collins, or Ernst holds on (80% chance one survives if Trump is reelected, 50% chance if not),which makes it D+3, enough for a tied Senate.

Add to that other, less realistic targets like MT, GA, or TX, and I believe the recipe for a D Senate is there. If a D wins the Presidency, it's probable the new Congress has Democratic control of both Houses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

[Zaybay]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Julian Castro is looking to the presidency than running, who is running

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol at anyone who thinks dems can win McConnell’s seat.

[Person Man]

No in reality the Senate is 2020 or bust.

The democrats have an outside chance of nagging a net of 3 seats in 2020 and that is their best chance of taking the chamber for a while. The easiest path for dems is probably CO,  NC, ME, AZ while losing AL. This leaves them at a 50-50 senate were any liberal policy survives at the whims of Joe Manchin and any opening could provide disastrous for the dems.

50-50 is probably the best the Democrats can expect in 2020 as they have to defend 3 potentially vulnerable seats of their own, MI, NH, MN and the only real other openings TX, IA, GA probably start as at best lean R.

The democrats are unlikely to net senate seats in a year where they hold the white house. The republicans in 2022 are only holding seats in red or purple seats and Wolf in PA is likely there only chance for a Rick Scott. The democrats would have to defend NH and AZ with lessened Latino midterm turnout. I just don't see it happening given the seats that are up.   

If a Democrat is winning in 2020, they are taking  EVERYTHING. If they fail, they will still have the House unless they truly get annihilated. If they lose and unless they are pounded into their ass is black and blue, they have an excellent shot in 22.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol at anyone who thinks dems can win McConnell’s seat.

It's not Lol, it's a 50 state strategy, and we should wait until 2019, after Gubernatorial races to see, when KY elects a governor. Just because Kennedy is winning in LA, Dems shouldn't give up in MS and KY

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yes, of course, that's the scenario now. But, Dems are gonna competete all over. Especially, if the 2019 Gubernatorial election, promise KY and MS for the Dems.

Dems can put IA, KY and KS into play. Due to fact Grimes, or Jim Gray promises to run against McConnell, if KY does appeal to be more bluer.

I have no idea what you're talking about.  Why is it so impossible for you to come up with a coherent thought?

[MillennialModerate]

Yes, of course, that's the scenario now. But, Dems are gonna competete all over. Especially, if the 2019 Gubernatorial election, promise KY and MS for the Dems.

Dems can put IA, KY and KS into play. Due to fact Grimes, or Jim Gray promises to run against McConnell, if KY does appeal to be more bluer.

I have no idea what you're talking about.  Why is it so impossible for you to come up with a coherent thought?

LOL, I’m glad you said this cause I thought I was losing it - that post made no sense

[MillennialModerate]

Some in this thread thinking we win the Senate in 2020, that’s wildly optimistic.

The Presidential race is predictable already, and with the lack of split tickets due to partisan polarization - its doubtful you’ll see any flips aside from ALabama, Colorado and Maine

[MAINEiac4434]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

Disagree. Ted Cruz has the popularity of measles.

[Zaybay]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

Disagree. Ted Cruz has the popularity of measles.

Incorrect. Ted Cruz, while polarizing, has had a better approval than Cornyn in almost every TX poll done, with only MC being the outlier.
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/john-cornyn-approval-june-2018
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/

[lfromnj]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

Disagree. Ted Cruz has the popularity of measles.

Incorrect. Ted Cruz, while polarizing, has had a better approval than Cornyn in almost every TX poll done, with only MC being the outlier.
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/john-cornyn-approval-june-2018
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/

Yeah Cornyn  gives me a gary Peter's vibe with people not really knowing him that well