Your early 2020 Senate rankings

[President Phil Scott]

Yus, absolutely agreed.

[lfromnj]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

Lupe Valdez could run against Abbot and still have a better chance than Doug Jones.

[President Phil Scott]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

Lupe Valdez could run against Abbot and still have a better chance than Doug Jones.

Who said Abbott was running for senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Co, IA, NC, ME, AZ and MT. TX, KS and KY are upset potential, but the incumbents are favored

[lfromnj]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

Lupe Valdez could run against Abbot and still have a better chance than Doug Jones.

Who said Abbott was running for senate?

sorry meant Corynyn. My bad

[President Phil Scott]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

Lupe Valdez could run against Abbot and still have a better chance than Doug Jones.

Who said Abbott was running for senate?

sorry meant Corynyn. My bad

Ah.

[President Phil Scott]

Co, IA, NC, ME, AZ and MT. TX, KS and KY are upset potential, but the incumbents are favored

Gardner isn't favored right now. Collins would be debateable.

There won't be any incumbent in the AZ seat unless Kyl steps down early and Ducey/success for nominates an appointee who then runs (Mcsally time)

But even then, unless McCain comes back to life I do think the dem nominee is favored there for '20.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont know about Bullock, hopefully he runs

[IceSpear]

Evidence Kentucky is Safe R:
-Past results
-Kentucky’s PVI
-Polarization

Evidence Kentucky isn’t Safe R:
-Hope and change-y stuff

More Evidence Kentucky isn't Safe R:

- I'm a liberal Democrat Hillary Clinton voter from a coastal city and I REALLY hate Mitch McConnell! So do all my friends on Twitter! So clearly Kentucky must hate him too, because clearly everyone agrees with me!

[adrac]

1. Alabama

_. Maine (without Collins)
2. Colorado

3. Arizona
4. North Carolina
5. Maine
_. Montana (with Bullock)

_. Maine (with Collins)
6. Iowa
7. Texas
8. New Hampshire
9. Michigan
10. Georgia
11. Montana

Pretty generic initial rankings. The order towards the bottom doesn't matter too much.

[Don Vito Corleone]

7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Berkowitz

[IceSpear]

7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Berkowitz

Because he has such a stellar record of success in Alaska elections...

[Don Vito Corleone]

7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Berkowitz

Because he has such a stellar record of success in Alaska elections...

Sure, that's a mark against him, but Mayor of Anchorage is a great launching pad for Statewide politics. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he won that seat (or Begich, seeing as how he has avoided the problem with most retreads where their profiles simple fade away to the point of irrelevancy).

[brucejoel99]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

Lupe Valdez could run against Abbot and still have a better chance than Doug Jones.

Ok but it's wayyy too early to be writing off an incumbent. I'm not gonna deny that AL is one of the most Republican states & that, unless the AL GOP nominates Moore or Strange &/or the NRSC sucks at its job again, it's gonna be a very difficult race for him, but I'm also not gonna deny that it's not unwinnable for him. Jones is probably DOA (esp. if either Sessions or Byrne is the GOP nominee), but he definitely shouldn't be underestimated. He could very well be perceived as much more authentic than normal red state Democrats, & voters care about that. Likely R is a fine rating for now, & counting him out is foolish, especially if 2020 turns out to be another Democratic wave.

[MT Treasurer]

Ok but it's wayyy too early to be writing off an incumbent. I'm not gonna deny that AL is one of the most Republican states & that, unless the AL GOP nominates Moore or Strange &/or the NRSC sucks at its job again, it's gonna be a very difficult race for him, but I'm also not gonna deny that it's not unwinnable for him. Jones is probably DOA (esp. if either Sessions or Byrne is the GOP nominee), but he definitely shouldn't be underestimated. He could very well be perceived as much more authentic than normal red state Democrats, & voters care about that. Likely R is a fine rating for now, & counting him out is foolish, especially if 2020 turns out to be another Democratic wave.

I agree 100%, but what did you expect from the same people who think that Bullock couldn’t possibly beat Daines in 2020 just because it’s a presidential year? MUH polarization!

[ElectionsGuy]

Going through these you'd think Alabama and Colorado are equally partisan states.

[IceSpear]

Going through these you'd think Alabama and Colorado are equally partisan states.

Atlas: "LOL at rating Virginia only likely D when it's clearly safe D. Kentucky is lean R at best for the GOP though imo tbh imho tbqh."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shaheen and Peters are safe

[here2view]

Safe D: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia
Likely D: Michigan, New Hampshire,
Lean D: Colorado (FLIP)

Tossup: Arizona, Maine, North Carolina

Lean R: Iowa
Likely R: Alabama (FLIP), Alaska, Georgia, Montana
Safe R: Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming

Montana would be Safe R if Bullock doesn't run.

[Young Conservative]

1. Alabama



2. Colorado


3.Arizona
4. North Carolina
5.Montana
6.Maine
7. Michigan
8. New Hampshire
9. Iowa
10. Georgia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]