Your early 2020 Senate rankings

[MT Treasurer]

From most likely to least likely to flip.

The 10 seats most likely to change hands:

1) CO
2) AL
3) AZ
4) MT (with Bullock)
5) NC
6) MI
7) ME (assuming Collins wins the primary, if not it moves to 2 or 3)
8.) GA
9) KS
10) TX

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Most to least likely to flip:

1. AL
[gap]
2. CO
3. ME (without collins)
[gap]
4. NC
5. AZ
6. NH
7. ME (with collins)
[gap]
8. MI
9. MN
10. IA

[Xing]

1. Alabama
2. Colorado
3. Arizona
4. North Carolina
5. Maine (becomes 3 if Collins retires/loses in the primary)
6. Georgia
7. Michigan
8. Iowa
9. Montana (moves up to 4 or 5 if Bullock runs)
10. Texas, or New Hampshire if Sununu runs

[lfromnj]

1. Alabama
2. Colorado
3. Arizona
4. North Carolina
5. Maine (becomes 3 if Collins retires/loses in the primary)
6. Georgia
7. Michigan
8. Iowa
9. Montana (moves up to 4 or 5 if Bullock runs)
10. Texas, or New Hampshire if Sununu runs

[DaWN]

Obviously categories are not prohibitive

Flipping Barring Extraordinary Circumstances
1. Colorado
2. Alabama

Flipping in a decent year for Ds
3. Arizona
4. North Carolina

Flipping in a good year for D/Rs
5. Maine (fluctuates depending on Collins primary result)
6. Montana (fluctuates depending on whether Bullock runs)
7. Michigan

Flipping in a great year for D/Rs
8. Georgia
9. Minnesota

Flipping in a mega wave year for D/Rs
10. New Hampshire (in this category unless Sununu runs which I currently doubt but who knows)
11. Kansas
12. Texas

[Politician]

1. Alabama

2. Colorado


3. Arizona
4. Maine
5. North Carolina

6. Iowa
7. New Hampshire
8. Michigan
9. Georgia
10. Montana

[Crumpets]

Out of an abundance of caution, I put a couple of would-be safe seats as "likely." Nebraska, for example, seems like the kind of place where Sasse might face a far-right challenge and lose, making the general election more interesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO, ME, AL, AZ are top tiers
IA, NC are second tiers
Potentially competetive KS and KY

[MT Treasurer]

Out of an abundance of caution, I put a couple of would-be safe seats as "likely." Nebraska, for example, seems like the kind of place where Sasse might face a far-right challenge and lose, making the general election more interesting.

You’re taking Bullock at his word about not running for Senate?

[lfromnj]

Out of an abundance of caution, I put a couple of would-be safe seats as "likely." Nebraska, for example, seems like the kind of place where Sasse might face a far-right challenge and lose, making the general election more interesting.

You’re taking Bullock by his word about not running for Senate?

I think he runs for senate after he realizes he polls 0% except among atlas users but only after CCM literally forces him to. Why is he so popular. Reading about him he seems more like a New Dem than a #populist. So I heard he has really good approvals but why?

[pantsaregood]

CO and AL almost certainly flip.

ME likely to flip if Collins gets primaried.

AZ and NC are toss ups.

MT and IA are tough targets.

Anything else doesn't really stand a chance.

I do like that everyone here seems to be aware that NC is more winnable than IA. Tillis only won in 2014 (a decent R year) by 1.5%, so he's not quite at unbeatable titan status.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Safe R: SC, TN, KY, WV, AL, MS, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, WY, ID
Likely R: ME, MT, AK
Lean R: GA, IA
Toss Up: NC, AZ, MI
Lean D: NH, CO
Likely D: MN
Safe D: MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, NM, OR

[Storr]

Safe R: SC, TN, KY, WV, AL, MS, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, WY, ID
Likely R: ME, MT, AK
Lean R: GA, IA
Toss Up: NC, AZ, MI
Lean D: NH, CO
Likely D: MN
Safe D: MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, NM, OR

I agree with most of these. The only ones I'd change would be Maine to Lean R, Texas to Likely R, New Hampshire to Likely D (I don't see Shaheen losing in 2020 when she won in 2014), and Michigan to Lean D. Right now Montana is where it should be since we don't know if Bullock will run.

[lfromnj]

Safe R: SC, TN, KY, WV, AL, MS, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, WY, ID
Likely R: ME, MT, AK
Lean R: GA, IA
Toss Up: NC, AZ, MI
Lean D: NH, CO
Likely D: MN
Safe D: MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, NM, OR

I agree with most of these. The only ones I'd change would be Maine to Lean R, Texas to Likely R, New Hampshire to Likely D (I don't see Shaheen losing in 2020 when she won in 2014), and Michigan to Lean D. Right now Montana is where it should be since we don't know if Bullock will run.

single thinks because beto spent 70 million and lost and outspent cruz 2.5 to 1 that means he sucks not realizing the texas GOP  infrastructure was vastly superior and that Beto had to build the dem party infrastructure himself along with the fact that Abbot had $50 million to spend basically evening out the statewide races as most of Texas money should be spent on GOTV(albiet carefully as Abbot had to as a lot of people were Beto Abbot voters)

[😥]

1. Alabama
2. Colorado
3. Maine (without Collins)
4. Montana (with Bullock)
5. North Carolina
6. Arizona
7. Georgia
8. Michigan
9. Iowa
10. Texas

[Person Man]

So 2020 will be between R+2 and like D+6.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Espy has just filed to run again in 2020

[Pandaguineapig]

I really think people are overestimating how vulnerable Collins is in a general election, even in the immediate aftermath of the Kavanaugh vote her approval ratings were around 60%. Nobody will care in two years, heck the Democrats have already moved on to countless shiny objects a little less than two months later

[Zaybay]

I really think people are overestimating how vulnerable Collins is in a general election, even in the immediate aftermath of the Kavanaugh vote her approval ratings were around 60%. Nobody will care in two years, heck the Democrats have already moved on to countless shiny objects a little less than two months later

She has never been that high. Suffolk University found her approval at 50/30 on August 8th, and PPP found it at 35/48 during the Kavanaugh debacle.

If you are talking about the 2nd district, and the 2nd district only, then yes, she got a 64/30 approval according to Siena. But there is another district.

[Pandaguineapig]

I really think people are overestimating how vulnerable Collins is in a general election, even in the immediate aftermath of the Kavanaugh vote her approval ratings were around 60%. Nobody will care in two years, heck the Democrats have already moved on to countless shiny objects a little less than two months later

She has never been that high. Suffolk University found her approval at 50/30 on August 8th, and PPP found it at 35/48 during the Kavanaugh debacle.

Exit polls in Maine showed her around 60, that PPP poll was an internal for a far-left advocacy group and has been well off from everything else

[Zaybay]

I really think people are overestimating how vulnerable Collins is in a general election, even in the immediate aftermath of the Kavanaugh vote her approval ratings were around 60%. Nobody will care in two years, heck the Democrats have already moved on to countless shiny objects a little less than two months later

She has never been that high. Suffolk University found her approval at 50/30 on August 8th, and PPP found it at 35/48 during the Kavanaugh debacle.

Exit polls in Maine showed her around 60, that PPP poll was an internal for a far-left advocacy group and has been well off from everything else

From what I can find, there was no exit poll done for ME. If you could link it, that would be greatly appreciated.

[Pericles]

I've decided to assess the races by national environment and have 5 different scenarios, R+4, R+0, D+4, D+8 and D+12 for the national environment(so don't confuse these with gains by parties, though sometimes they do align).

2020 Senate(R+4)
R 57+4
D 41-4
I 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

GOP gains AL, MI, MN, NH

2020 Senate(R+0)
R 53_
D 45_
I 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

GOP gains AL
Dems gain CO

2020 Senate(D+4)
R 50-3
D 48+3
I 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

GOP gains AL
Dems gain CO, NC, AZ, ME

2020 Senate(D+8)
D 50+5
R 48-5
I 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

GOP gains AL
Dems gain CO, NC, AZ, ME, GA, MT

2020 Senate(D+12)
D 54+9
R 44-9
I 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

Dems gain CO, NC, AZ. ME, GA, MT, TX, AK, IA

This is a bit rough and shouldn't be treated as a hard and fast guide, I could see Collins losing surviving in a D+4 environment or Republicans gaining an extra seat like NH in a neutral environment. But this is an overall assessment from me of the big picture.

EDIT: Maineiac told me Collins could lose in a D+4 environment, so I have edited my ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems would win KY or KS after NC and AZ not TX

[Pericles]

Dems would win KY or KS after NC and AZ not TX

Kentucky is pretty far gone for Dems, McConnell won by 6 even in 2008 and it's shifted a lot to the right since then. I could see Kansas as a pickup in a blue tsunami scenario. However Texas is trending Democrat pretty rapidly, Cornyn doesn't seem super popular and with a strong candidate and presidential year turnout it is gettable for Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.