Your early 2020 Senate rankings

[President Phil Scott]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

Nick Freitas. Yeah no, VA is just not even a purple state anymore and Trump will head the ticket, Warner is looking good for reelection.

I was saying Warner in case Gillepsie  jumps in. Some users think Cornyn is gonna lose. Julian Castro or no one is gonna jump in against Cornyn. Trump will win TX in a Presidential year by 15.

lol the same Gillespie who lost to Rulf Nordem (or was it Rolph Nertham) by ~10? not a chance my friend

O'Rourke has about the same same chance against Cornyn than as that he did against Cruz this year (to be clear, a pretty good one) if your were not following to the listin.

[pops]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

[President Phil Scott]

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D CO, VA, NH, MI
Tossup: NC, IA(Ernst isn't Grassley), ME and MT depending on Bullock
Tilt R AL, MS GA, KS, KY(don't underestimate Jim Gray or Grimes, if Beshear beats Bevin)

upset potential MT, NC, KY, KS and IA

[Xing]

Evidence Kentucky is Safe R:
-Past results
-Kentucky’s PVI
-Polarization

Evidence Kentucky isn’t Safe R:
-Hope and change-y stuff

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

[Crumpets]

Out of an abundance of caution, I put a couple of would-be safe seats as "likely." Nebraska, for example, seems like the kind of place where Sasse might face a far-right challenge and lose, making the general election more interesting.

You’re taking Bullock at his word about not running for Senate?

I think even if he does run, it's still a tossup race. The combined probability that Bullock doesn't run +he runs and loses I think is enough to call it Likely R for now.

[pops]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

Don’t really see anything wrong with this ranking

[Xing]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

What's wrong with ranking Michigan as Lean D? I can see the argument for Toss-Up, but I wouldn't say that Lean D is LOL-worthy, unless you're referring to NH being more likely to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conservatives think that Joni Ernst, will certainly win reelection. That's just not true, Grassley is the Rob Portman of IA. Won 2016, Joni Ernst isn't

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

What's wrong with ranking Michigan as Lean D? I can see the argument for Toss-Up, but I wouldn't say that Lean D is LOL-worthy, unless you're referring to NH being more likely to flip.

Yes, that’s exactly what I meant. Lean D is justifiable, but there’s really no way NH flips before MI, that VA is only "Likely" D, or that AR, KY, and WV are more winnable for Democrats than AK and MT. Period.

[pops]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

What's wrong with ranking Michigan as Lean D? I can see the argument for Toss-Up, but I wouldn't say that Lean D is LOL-worthy, unless you're referring to NH being more likely to flip.

Yes, that’s exactly what I meant. Lean D is justifiable, but there’s really no way NH flips before MI, that VA is only "Likely" D, or that AR, KY, and WV are more winnable for Democrats than AK and MT. Period.

Okay, I think I can explain all of these pretty well
1. New Hampshire is always a razor thin election, even in Senate races, and it's not too hard to see a Republican pickup. Far easier, I think, than Michigan, as John James won't necessarily run.
2. Virginia is only likely D off the possibility of Warner running for President or Vice President, and Nick Frietas, who I think is the current Republican frontrunner, is a strong candidate for Virginia (like Ed Gillespie in his prime)
3. Tom Cotton is vulnerable, in my mind, to a small extent but a strong Democrat would have to capitalize on that
4. Mitch McConnell is definitely vulnerable, and I would rate this seat tilt R if it weren't a Presidential year
5. West Virginia is West Virginia, it's not hard at all to see a Trump/Democrat split there. It happened in 2016.
6. Steve Bullock will run for Senate but isn't a threat at all to Steve Daines
7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Likely D: MN, VA
Lean D: CO, NH, MI
Tossup: ME
Lean R: NC, AZ
Likely R: GA, IA

[Calthrina950]

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R: AR, IA, KY, ME, NC, TX, WV
Lean R: GA
Tilt R: AZ
Tilt D: CO, NH
Lean D: MI, MN
Likely D: VA
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI

lol

What's wrong with ranking Michigan as Lean D? I can see the argument for Toss-Up, but I wouldn't say that Lean D is LOL-worthy, unless you're referring to NH being more likely to flip.

Yes, that’s exactly what I meant. Lean D is justifiable, but there’s really no way NH flips before MI, that VA is only "Likely" D, or that AR, KY, and WV are more winnable for Democrats than AK and MT. Period.

Okay, I think I can explain all of these pretty well
1. New Hampshire is always a razor thin election, even in Senate races, and it's not too hard to see a Republican pickup. Far easier, I think, than Michigan, as John James won't necessarily run.
2. Virginia is only likely D off the possibility of Warner running for President or Vice President, and Nick Frietas, who I think is the current Republican frontrunner, is a strong candidate for Virginia (like Ed Gillespie in his prime)
3. Tom Cotton is vulnerable, in my mind, to a small extent but a strong Democrat would have to capitalize on that
4. Mitch McConnell is definitely vulnerable, and I would rate this seat tilt R if it weren't a Presidential year
5. West Virginia is West Virginia, it's not hard at all to see a Trump/Democrat split there. It happened in 2016.
6. Steve Bullock will run for Senate but isn't a threat at all to Steve Daines
7. Who even could win in Alaska? I would actually expect an Independent or Libertarian pickup here long before I would think a Democrat could win this race.

I disagree with some of your points. New Hampshire isn't always close-Kelly Ayotte won in a landslide in 2010, and Judd Gregg did so in 2004. Shaheen is favored, and given how that state seems to be trending Democratic, I think she will win comfortably in 2020. However, it is no more than Likely Democratic. Virginia is Safe Democratic, regardless of whether or not Warner runs. Freitas may come as close as Gillepsie did in 2017, but not any more than that. He will most likely lose by low double digits.

Cotton is Safe Republican, period. Bredesen's loss this year proves that a Mike Beebe retread challenge would go down in flames, and besides him, there is no plausible challenger. I expect Cotton to win by at least 20 points. McConnell is also Safe. Democrats couldn't take him down in 2008. Why would they be able to do so now? West Virginia is also Safe Republican. Manchin only narrowly survived, and Moore-Capito is a much more popular incumbent than he is. She will win with over 60% of the vote.

Bullock has a chance in Montana, but I agree with you that Daines would be favored, and would win by double digits if Bullock does not challenge him. Finally, I consider Alaska to be Likely Republican, at the minimum. Begich just lost the gubernatorial race this year, and would be even more of a retread in 2020. I expect Sullivan to get challenges from Democratic, Libertarian, and independent candidates, which will only make it easier for him to prevail.

[NewYorkExpress]

My early ratings (though I still caution that we are a long way off from Senate Season)

Arizona-Special: Tossup/Tilt D (This is, of course the provisional rating without knowing who the candidates are, and it's based on Simena's win this year. But it's subject to change)

Alabama- Safe R (I don't see a path for Jones that doesn't include Roy Moore being the nominee again, he might retire, and even if Moore is the GOP nominee, I think Moore wins because of Trump's coattail effect in Alabama)

Alaska- Likely R (If Begich runs, this seat could be competitive, but Begich isn't particularly popular with Alaska Democrats right now)

Arkansas- Safe R

Colorado- Likely D (Unless Democrats nominate a total incompetent, Cory Gardner should lose)

Delaware- Safe D

Georgia- Lean R (I originally had this at tossup, but Stacey Abrams's loss this year makes a bit more pessimistic about the Democrats chances of winning the seat)

Idaho- Safe R

Illinois- Safe D ( I don't think Durbin runs for reelection, though...watch Cheri Bustos, Luis Gutierrez and Chuy Garcia carefully)

Iowa- Tossup/Tilt R (This will be a key test of whether Iowa is still a swing state, even more so than the Presidential Election, as I expect Trump to carry the Hawkeye State)

Kansas- Likely R (I think Roberts will retire, and if someone like Kris Kobach gets the Republican nomination, and if Democrats run a serious candidate (say Sharice Davids), I wouldn't be stunned to see the seat flip)

Kentucky- Tossup Tilt/R (Mitch McConnell is that unpopular, and so is Matt Bevin. If Bevin doesn't win reelection next year, McConnell's chances, quite perversely probably improve, but if he does...McConnell might well go down in flames)

Louisiana- Safe R (The only way this seat is competitive is if John Bel Edwards is the Democratic nominee, and even then, Cassidy isn't losing)

Maine- Lean D (Even if Susan Collins does run, her approval ratings are so weak that a competent Democrat should beat her in November, let alone what another Republican might do in a primary)

Massachusetts- Safe D

Michigan- Lean D (Trump did win Michigan, and if he puts any effort into Michigan at all, he might win it again, which would put Peters into danger)

Minnesota- Likely D (Trump could win Minnesota, but I'm not sure who, other than Jim Hagedorn, Tom Emmer or Pete Stauber would be a credible nominee)

Mississippi- Safe R (With Trump on the ballot, Hyde-Smith should win by at least twenty)

Montana- Tossup with Bullock (which apparently isn't happening sadly), Lean R with Schweitzer, Safe R with anyone else.

Nebraska- Safe R (though Sasse is vulnerable in a primary)

New Hampshire- Tossup with Sunnunu, Safe D with anyone else

New Jersey-Safe D

New Mexico- Safe D

North Carolina- Lean D with Cooper, Tossup with Foxx or Jackson, Likely R with anyone else

Oklahoma- Safe R

Oregon- Safe D

Rhode Island- Safe D

South Carolina- Safe R (though once again, Graham could lose a primary or retire...maybe Nikki Haley knows something we don't about Graham's future, and that's she left the UN? I mean I he said he's running...so maybe she's planning a primary challenge?)

South Dakota- Safe R

Tennessee- Safe R (I never seriously thought Bredesen was going to win, and Alexander if he runs, would be in better shape than Corker ever was. If not, I think Diane Black or Bill Haslam wins the seat)

Texas- Tossup Tilt/R (Just how close Ted Cruz's race was, has to scare Texas Republicans. Plus Cornyn is a recent member of Senate leadership, which might fire up the Democratic base about as much as they were to take down Cruz, especially if they get a good recruit (Beto O'Rourke, either Castro brother, Colin Allred, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher) as their nominee. If they get that, and keep the Presidential race at about the same margin it was in 2016 or less (they don't have to win Texas atop the ballot, they just don't have to be humiliated like Greg Abbott's Gubernatorial victory this year), they win).

Virginia- Safe D (Barbara Comstock is probably still the only Republican who can touch Warner, and I'm not convinced she'd make it through a primary)

West Virginia- Safe R

Wyoming- Safe R

[Farmlands]

Most likely to flip for me:

1-Colorado
2-Alabama
3-Arizona
4-North Carolina
5-Kansas
6-Maine
7-Montana
8-Iowa

Kansas has shown it can overcome it's partisan lean in 2018 and 2014, where Pat Roberts was only propelled to reelection due to the red wave of that year.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Rated from most likely to be Republican to most likely Democratic:

Wyoming
Arkansas
West Virginia
Mississippi
Idaho
Tennessee
South Carolina
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Alabama
Louisiana
Nebraska (sasse might fall in the primary though)
Kentucky
Kansas
Alaska
Texas
Montana
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
North Carolina
Arizona
Minnesota
Maine
Colorado
Delaware
New Jersey
Oregon
New Hampshire
Virginia
Chode Island
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts

[Person Man]

 Is it safe to say that whoever wins the presidency PROBABLY wins the Senate and Democrats should keep the House unless their entire campaign collapses.

[Frenchrepublican]

Very early ratings, obviously Maine could become very competitive if Dems are able to cut into Collins’s popularity and Michigan could become competitive if Trump wins it again

Likely D
MI
NH

Toss UP
AZ
CO

Lean R
AL
NC

Likely R
GA
IA
ME
TX

[lfromnj]

Very early ratings, obviously Maine could become very competitive if Dems are able to cut into Collins’s popularity and Michigan could become competitive if Trump wins it again

Likely D
MI
NH

Toss UP
AZ
CO

Lean R
AL
NC

Likely R
GA
IA
ME
TX

Colorado is between lean and likely d lol and Alabama is safe r.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TILT D
NH-SHAHEEN, VA-WARNER, NM-UDALL, OR-MERKLEY, MI-PETERS, CO-Gardner

TOSSUP-COMPETETIVE RACES
IA-Ernst, MT-Daines, NC-Tillis, ME-Collins & AZ-open

TILT R
AL-JONES, MS-Hyde-Smith, TX-Cornyn, KY-McConnell, KS-Roberts

[Frenchrepublican]

Very early ratings, obviously Maine could become very competitive if Dems are able to cut into Collins’s popularity and Michigan could become competitive if Trump wins it again

Likely D
MI
NH

Toss UP
AZ
CO

Lean R
AL
NC

Likely R
GA
IA
ME
TX

Colorado is between lean and likely d lol and Alabama is safe r.

Considering an incumbent senator as totally doomed two years before the election is probably not a smart thinking. Jones is clearly the underdog but you don’t know who will be the republican candidate, you could have a bloody primary if Sessions runs again. As for Colorado Gardner has proved to be a strong candidate, he will be very well funded and if Dems are not able to field a strong candidate, he could may be survive .

[lfromnj]

Very early ratings, obviously Maine could become very competitive if Dems are able to cut into Collins’s popularity and Michigan could become competitive if Trump wins it again

Likely D
MI
NH

Toss UP
AZ
CO

Lean R
AL
NC

Likely R
GA
IA
ME
TX

Colorado is between lean and likely d lol and Alabama is safe r.

Considering an incumbent senator as totally doomed two years before the election is probably not a smart thinking. Jones is clearly the underdog but you don’t know who will be the republican candidate, you could have a bloody primary if Sessions runs again. As for Colorado Gardner has proved to be a strong candidate, he will be very well funded and if Dems are not able to field a strong candidate, he could may be survive .

Colorado dems are very component mind you.
Also doug jones has no path lol. He got less votes than walter maddox

[brucejoel99]

Safe D:
MI

Likely D:
CO
ME (no Collins)

Lean D:
AZ

Tilt D:
MT (w/ Bullock)

Lean R:
NC
IA
ME (w/ Collins)
MT (no Bullock)

Likely R:
AL
GA
KS

Safe R:
TX
KY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Bullock passes on Presidential run and runs against Daines, this will be the Dems fourth pickup after IA, CO and ME