Your early 2020 Senate rankings

[Zaybay]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

[Skye]

1) AL
2) CO
3) AZ
4) NC
5) GA
6) MI
7) ME
AK
9) IA
10) NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's smarter than Cruz, Cruz had one of the worse presidential runs ever.

[Pericles]

He's smarter than Cruz, Cruz had one of the worse presidential runs ever.

That's a bit too far, Cruz came second in a 16-person field.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His campaign blew up in IN, when he overreached

[Calthrina950]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

But Cornyn is a more entrenched incumbent than Cruz, and his very inoffensiveness is probably an advantage.

[Zaybay]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

But Cornyn is a more entrenched incumbent than Cruz, and his very inoffensiveness is probably an advantage.

Being there for a long time /=/ Entrenched. Cornyn is rather unknown in TX, with almost a consistent 30% not knowing who he is in every poll. He is also boring, old, and not really an energizer for Republicans like Cruz was. And while Cruz was neutral or positive with the public, most TX polls put Cornyn and negative approvals. And with Hispanic turnout back up for a presidential year, I would say Cornyn has a good chance of falling. Of course, this will all depend on what happens in 2020 and who the D candidate is.

[Calthrina950]

Cornyn isn't Cruz.

You're right, hes more unknown, boring, and (somehow) less charismatic than Cruz.

But Cornyn is a more entrenched incumbent than Cruz, and his very inoffensiveness is probably an advantage.

Being there for a long time /=/ Entrenched. Cornyn is rather unknown in TX, with almost a consistent 30% not knowing who he is in every poll. He is also boring, old, and not really an energizer for Republicans like Cruz was. And while Cruz was neutral or positive with the public, most TX polls put Cornyn and negative approvals. And with Hispanic turnout back up for a presidential year, I would say Cornyn has a good chance of falling. Of course, this will all depend on what happens in 2020 and who the D candidate is.

We'll have to see. Cornyn is obviously not safe in 2020, but I believe that he is favored. O'Rourke would probably be the best challenger to him, but I'm not sure if that is going to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It belongs in 2nd tier pick ups.

[°Leprechaun]

The Democrats' chances to take control even if Trump loses are about as bad as they were this year.
No change, or a net gain of one for either party is the most likely result at this point in time, unless there is a strong wave for either party, which looks unlikely at this point in time.

If any states flip, only AZ or AL.

[President Phil Scott]

1. Alabama for sure.
2. Colorado
3. Arizona (R to D)
4. Maine
5. New Hampshire
6. North Carolina
7. Texas
8. Georgia
9. Iowa
10. Michigan

Minnesota, as a bonus.

[Zaybay]

The Democrats' chances to take control even if Trump loses are about as bad as they were this year.
No change, or a net gain of one for either party is the most likely result at this point in time, unless there is a strong wave for either party, which looks unlikely at this point in time.

If any states flip, only AZ or AL.

......what about CO? I know we joke around about it, but Cory Gardner aint some Unbeatable Titan.

[°Leprechaun]

The Democrats' chances to take control even if Trump loses are about as bad as they were this year.
No change, or a net gain of one for either party is the most likely result at this point in time, unless there is a strong wave for either party, which looks unlikely at this point in time.

If any states flip, only AZ or AL.

......what about CO? I know we joke around about it, but Cory Gardner aint some Unbeatable Titan.

Possible, but to win the Senate assuming a Trump loss they need a net gain of three seats.
That means holding AL, and flipping AZ, CO and one more (ME?). It seems unlikely at this point, but it is certainly too early to call this far ahead. All the other D seats (other than AL) seem fairly safe.

[Zaybay]

The Democrats' chances to take control even if Trump loses are about as bad as they were this year.
No change, or a net gain of one for either party is the most likely result at this point in time, unless there is a strong wave for either party, which looks unlikely at this point in time.

If any states flip, only AZ or AL.

......what about CO? I know we joke around about it, but Cory Gardner aint some Unbeatable Titan.

Possible, but to win the Senate assuming a Trump loss they need a net gain of three seats.
That means holding AL, and flipping AZ, CO and one more (ME?). It seems unlikely at this point, but it is certainly too early to call this far ahead. All the other D seats (other than AL) seem fairly safe.

I think we can call CO at this point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Many of these could change depending on the nominees:

Alabama: Likely R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Tossup
Arkansas: Safe R
Colorado: Lean D
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Lean R
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Likely R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maine: Tossup
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Safe D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Montana: Likely R
Nebraska: Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Virginia: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

The Democrats best bet at pickups, in order: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia. They'll need to win 5 of them (accounting for a likely Jones loss). Kansas and Montana are also possible pickups, but only with the best candidates possible.

The GOP only really has two chances at pickups, they are definitely on the defense this time: Alabama, which they pretty much have already won, and maybe New Hampshire, if they're lucky.

[Zaybay]

Many of these could change depending on the nominees:

Alabama: Likely R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Tossup
Arkansas: Safe R
Colorado: Lean D
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Lean R
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Likely R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maine: Tossup
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Safe D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Montana: Likely R
Nebraska: Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Virginia: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

The Democrats best bet at pickups, in order: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia. They'll need to win 5 of them (accounting for a likely Jones loss). Kansas and Montana are also possible pickups, but only with the best candidates possible.

The GOP only really has two chances at pickups, they are definitely on the defense this time: Alabama, which they pretty much have already won, and maybe New Hampshire, if they're lucky.

If they are even getting close in states like GA, AZ, and NC, we can assume Trump has lost the presidency. In that case, only 4 are needed.

[Roblox]

Note: Any race not listed is safe for the incumbent party.

Likely Democratic

Minnesota
Virginia

Lean Democratic

Colorado (pickup)
New Hampshire
Michigan

Tossup

Arizona (special)

Lean Republican

North Carolina
Georgia
Maine
Iowa

Likely Republican

Alabama(pickup)
Montana (tossup is Bullock runs)
Alaska
Texas
Kansas

[Strudelcutie4427]

Cornyn isn't Cruz The Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

[President Phil Scott]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

[President Phil Scott]

Note: Any race not listed is safe for the incumbent party.

Likely Democratic

Minnesota
Virginia

Lean Democratic

Colorado (pickup)
New Hampshire
Michigan

Tossup

Arizona (special)

Lean Republican

North Carolina
Georgia
Maine
Iowa

Likely Republican

Alabama(pickup)
Montana (tossup is Bullock runs)
Alaska
Texas
Kansas

Actually I broadly agree with this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

Nick Freitas. Yeah no, VA is just not even a purple state anymore and Trump will head the ticket, Warner is looking good for reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

Nick Freitas. Yeah no, VA is just not even a purple state anymore and Trump will head the ticket, Warner is looking good for reelection.

I was saying Warner in case Gillepsie  jumps in. Some users think Cornyn is gonna lose. Julian Castro or no one is gonna jump in against Cornyn. Trump will win TX in a Presidential year by 15.

[Calthrina950]

The candidates haven't been named, yet. All of these outlooks should be on hold.

Shaheen, Daines, Ernst, Collins, Warner, Gardner are all gonna get top tier challengers

Lol, who is even left as a top tier challenger in VA, and nobody that could take Warner out barring a major development.

Corey Stewart! lol

In all seriousness tho who was that one guy he narrowly beat by less than expected of a margin in the primary?

Nick Freitas. Yeah no, VA is just not even a purple state anymore and Trump will head the ticket, Warner is looking good for reelection.

I was saying Warner in case Gillepsie  jumps in. Some users think Cornyn is gonna lose. Julian Castro or no one is gonna jump in against Cornyn. Trump will win TX in a Presidential year by 15.

He did not win Texas by this margin in 2016. And this year's results make it clear that he will not do so in 2020. I still expect him to win the state, but I wouldn't be surprised if he only prevails by mid single digits.