Tory Leadership Contest Outcome

[Peter]

Question refers to what you think will happen, not what you want to happen.

Posting specific guesses (down to the tenth of a percent please) and we'll call it an informal bet.

[minionofmidas]

Cameron 53.0%

[Ben.]

Cameron, around 60-65%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure. Problem is I've no idea how the Tory party works so to speak... judging by the media coverage and Conway's outburst I'd say that Cameron is clearly leading but maybe by not as much as he was.

[Democratic Hawk]

Cameron 53.0%

Since it looks like Cameron 'has it in the bag', I'd love your estimate to hold true, Lewis. It would prove that the Conservative Party is, indeed, having an identity crisis as whether to move to the centre or remain on the right (where they belong!)

Sadly, unless Davis gets his arse into gear, Cameron will win between 60 to 70% of the membership vote and have a clear mandate

Dave

[Tory]

Cameron, 60-70%. I'm a party member and will be voting for him

[Jake]

Cameron with 62.8%

[Ben.]

Little link to the David Cameron leadership campaign website…

http://www.cameroncampaign.org/index.html

…rather nice really Better than dear o’ld Basher’s LOL!     

[afleitch]

Cameron, 60-70%. I'm a party member and will be voting for him

Ditto

[Ben.]

ICM Poll has Cameron beating Davis amongst Tory members 76-24%!

I'm more inclined to agree with YouGov who had Cameron at around 65%, and who have a much better track record… but saying that, I still think it perfectly possible that Cameron will break 70% and as a result have a pretty hefty mandate as the incoming leader, if Cameron demolishes Davis in the special Question Time Program this Thursday (which is likely) then there is going to be simply no way for the race to narrow if you ask me.

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots… indeed I would expect Fox personally to be far more likely to endorse Cameron with whom he has good relations than Davis with whom he is very frosty, indeed it speaks volumes about Davis that the main way in which he gained support amongst MPs was with the implicate threat that to not back him would be remembered when he inevitably became leader… not the most effective way to build on an already shaky base of support.     

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sample size of the ICM poll: 215

[Ben.]

Sample size of the ICM poll: 215

True... still impressive lead all the same, also they didn't poll any Tories in London. Lots of very large local Tory Parties most of which heavily lean towards Cameron... strangley if anything the poll might be underestimating Cameron (!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True... still impressive lead all the same, also they didn't poll any Tories in London. Lots of very large local Tory Parties most of which heavily lean towards Cameron... strangley if anything the poll might be underestimating Cameron (!)

[minionofmidas]

Okay...I'll revise my prediction upward to 58.9% for Cameron. (IDS got 59.0% IIRC?)

[Michael Z]

I wonder what's behind these murmurs of Cameron supporting a flat tax, and whether this could just be some dodgy manoevering on behalf of the Davis camp. In any case, Cameron looks set to win by a landslide. 65%-70%, as things stand.

Btw, did I mention that I suggested the Tories pick Cameron as early as May, in this very forum? Far be it for me to go milking for accolades, of course...

If the Tories have any sense they'll pick David Cameron. He's got youth and charisma on his side, and he's not dumb either.

Whoops, my finger slipped.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what's behind these murmurs of Cameron supporting a flat tax, and whether this could just be some dodgy manoevering on behalf of the Davis camp.

It'd be an odd thing for Davis to do because I don't think it'd hurt Cameron with the Tory members... it's the sort of thing that could hurt him with the ordinary electorate though.

And yes, I think you've mentioned that more than a few times

[Michael Z]

I wonder what's behind these murmurs of Cameron supporting a flat tax, and whether this could just be some dodgy manoevering on behalf of the Davis camp.

It'd be an odd thing for Davis to do because I don't think it'd hurt Cameron with the Tory members... it's the sort of thing that could hurt him with the ordinary electorate though.

That's a good point, but then again Cameron seems to fashion himself as the candidate for the wider electorate, whereas Davis tries to appeal more to the grassroots of the party.

Though it's still interesting that we haven't actually seen any firm policies from Cameron, and in fact don't really know where he stands on anything but, perhaps, Europe - and all that stuff about the EPP is clearly designed to model Cameron as a firm Eurosceptic. Perhaps that's the one thing where Tory grassroots do need some reassurance since, in recent history at least, "moderniser" has tended to translate as "Europhile" (vis-a-vis Clarke or Portillo) for the Tories.

In any case, with the flat tax, we obviously haven't heard the last of this one. And once they've managed to push that one through they'll start talking about getting rid of tax altogether. Anarcho-Capitalism, basically, something we've been slowly but surely creeping towards ever since the 1980s.

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What? Oh, you mean this?

If the Tories have any sense they'll pick David Cameron. He's got youth and charisma on his side, and he's not dumb either.

Whoops, my finger slipped again.

[Јas]

Cameron 77%

I think he's going to run away with it.

[Democratic Hawk]

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots

Ah well, David Cameron beholden to the wing nuts? Hardliner's supporting a 'moderniser' can't bode well in terms of a broader electoral platform

Dave

[afleitch]

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots

Ah well, David Cameron beholden to the wing nuts? Hardliner's supporting a 'moderniser' can't bode well in terms of a broader electoral platform

Dave

The wing nuts just want to have their fingers in as many pies as possible. They want a shadow cabinet post, but if Cameron gets a landslide, he can do what ever he wants.

[Ben.]

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots

Ah well, David Cameron beholden to the wing nuts? Hardliner's supporting a 'moderniser' can't bode well in terms of a broader electoral platform

Dave

The wing nuts just want to have their fingers in as many pies as possible. They want a shadow cabinet post, but if Cameron gets a landslide, he can do what ever he wants.

I must admit a number of those in the "corner stone" group aren't that nutty... a few are even rather bright in their own way, and importantly its not just abortion, Europe and taxation with some (sadly not all) of them, they where heavily involved in IDS's “compassion agenda” – which itself was tremendously important in broadening the party’s policy approach and critically marked an end to “one issue” approach of the Hague years, sadly this success is largely forgotten about by many, when it was perhaps the only good thing to come out of IDS’s leadership.

I think Fox will be given a post, he and Cameron are on good terms personally (tennis partners so I hear)… and perhaps one of the younger right-wingers such Burrowes or Hands, at the same time I think Vaizey and Gove will also get promoted, Hague, Willets and Rifkin will also probably take up the big three jobs, especially if Davis has been humbled in the members ballot… though in the end it might be best to keep him in place, I wouldn’t be surprised if even with their friendship Osborn gets moved down and replaced with Willets… “two brains” would be by far their best pick for shadow chancellor, while Hauge and Rifkin would both be effective as either Shadow Home or Foreign Sectary. But I have an knack of looking for elegant cabinet reshuffles and not getting them                

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bringing back Hauge and Wifkind would be kinda stupid if Cameron doesn't want to suddenly seem like "new boss same as old boss".

[afleitch]

There are murmurings up north that Rifkind 'fly in' to the Scottish Parliament and lead the Tories there (as long as a Tory MSP gives up that seat) The same idea was floated after the resignation of McLeish in 2001 to allow the late Robin Cook who had been 'demoted' after the election to do the same. It did not come to anything as we know.

[Ben.]

Bringing back Hauge and Wifkind would be kinda stupid if Cameron doesn't want to suddenly seem like "new boss same as old boss".

Rifkin is certainly one of the parliamentary Tory parties most able members added to which compared to Howard or Clark its hard to link him to the “bad old days”. I wonder if linking people back to the bad “old days” really works that well unless their the party leader, I mean Yoe and Redwood… however rabid the later might be don’t register with any but those with a special interest in politics, added to which they’ve had precious little impact on the general perception of the party… such an effect on the perception of the entire party is largely related to the leader, not shadow ministers. Rifkin also bolsters Cameron with a heavy hitter at the treasury to address the suggestion that Cameron is too inexperienced.

I think Hague’s ability as a commons performer and undoubted ability to manage a brief, mean that if he wants it, Cameron would be unwise to pass him up… Home Sectary and Chancellor would probably be too sensitive and Davis and Rifkin fill those briefs very ably, but he’d fit well as shadow foreign sectary.

I doubt either would really register with any but the politically obsessed, like us Rifkin certainly would find it very hard to elicit anything more than the accusation that he was “stuffy” but if he was providing ballast and punch for Cameron he’d work well. Hague, largely been forgotten these days, and his ability would be what was important in a post like shadow foreign sectary.

So I think you’ll see the “big boys” i.e. Davis, Willets, Rifkin and Hague taking the big jobs, but the likes of Gove, Vaizey, Osborne, Boris? ( ) Taking more junior posts… I do wonder if Cameron would be prepared to move Osborne to something less hefty than shadowing Brown, which Willets or Rifkin, or at a stretch, Hague could quite ably… You need a balance of experience and some of the younger Turks, especially with Cameron as leader, in the same way that Kennedy gets credibility from having the likes of Campbell and Cable in post (though as I’ve said Cameron is far more able than Kennedy), but it’s the same effect.