Out on a limb

[© tweed]

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

From the ones I know of, I'd say McCain in Arizona or Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado.

Yeah, McCain probably is.  He may win 70% or more of the vote, which is hard to believe, but it could happen.

[Gustaf]

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

From the ones I know of, I'd say McCain in Arizona or Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado.

Yeah, McCain probably is.  He may win 70% or more of the vote, which is hard to believe, but it could happen.

Could make it really hard for the Dems to run there (which it would probably be anyway, but now even more so...)

[Vincent]

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

From the ones I know of, I'd say McCain in Arizona or Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado.

Yeah, McCain probably is.  He may win 70% or more of the vote, which is hard to believe, but it could happen.

Could make it really hard for the Dems to run there (which it would probably be anyway, but now even more so...)

The Dems probably wont have a serious candidate to run against McCain seeing as they didnt even put anyone on the ballot in 2000 to run against Sen. Jon Kyl

[12th Doctor]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

Greens tend to be fairly popular in Alaska, if I am not mistaken.  I believe that they have taken between 5-15% in the last few Congressional/Presidential elections.

[jravnsbo]

DEAL.

Safest seat-Bennet in Utah.

I would give 5% since Thune would be the underdog.

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about Voionich... Vonivoinch...er... the GOP senator from Ohio? He was on over 60% last poll I saw.

[jravnsbo]

He will do well..   I wish Jerry ( I would have loved to have been the face fo the Democrat party) Springer would have run

What about Voionich... Vonivoinch...er... the GOP senator from Ohio? He was on over 60% last poll I saw.

[© tweed]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

Greens tend to be fairly popular in Alaska, if I am not mistaken.  I believe that they have taken between 5-15% in the last few Congressional/Presidential elections.

Any independent/third party candidate is popular in alaska.  I don't know the reason, but they voted in high numbers for Perot ('92 and '96) and Nader ('00)

[Gustaf]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

Greens tend to be fairly popular in Alaska, if I am not mistaken.  I believe that they have taken between 5-15% in the last few Congressional/Presidential elections.

Any independent/third party candidate is popular in alaska.  I don't know the reason, but they voted in high numbers for Perot ('92 and '96) and Nader ('00)

The same goes for the far northeast right? (Maine, New Hampshire)

[© tweed]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

Greens tend to be fairly popular in Alaska, if I am not mistaken.  I believe that they have taken between 5-15% in the last few Congressional/Presidential elections.

Any independent/third party candidate is popular in alaska.  I don't know the reason, but they voted in high numbers for Perot ('92 and '96) and Nader ('00)

The same goes for the far northeast right? (Maine, New Hampshire)

Yes, but not to the level of alaska.  Vermont has a vermont Grassroots party that gets a good share of the vote in gubernatorial elections.

[Inmate Trump]

Assuming Dean gets the nomination, I see a likely (though NOT AT ALL certain) victory for Bush.

I won't say if I think it'll be a close election or a landslide for Bush; all that depends on Iraq and the economy by Nov. '04.  If both of those go down for Bush (they're looking up right now), it could really hurt him.

I actually think Dean would do better against Bush than some of the other frontrunners like Clark and Gephardt.  I think Bush wins all the states he carried in 2000 except possibly Ohio and New Hampshire.  I believe Bush will gain Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and POSSIBLY Wisconsin, Michigan, and even California.  Yes, I said California.

For the Senate, I think the GOP has about an 85-90% chance of winning in my state of GA.  I think Republicans will most likely win in every other southern state, except Florida and/or Louisiana, where the races will be too close to call, I predict.

In South Dakota, I really do believe Daschle could get kicked out by Thune.  Voter fraud messed Thune up last time; had the Dems not pulled that stunt, Thune would be in the senate right now.  I think the voter fraud of the 2002 election being public knowledge, S.D. being a pretty conservative Republican state, and the fact that Daschle attacked Bush on the eve of war may be just enough to get Thune in and Daschle out.

The governor races don't seem too much of a concern.  There aren't really that many critical seats open this cycle anyhow.

As far as the House goes....Man, does anybody actually see a situation where the House goes Dem?  Be honest now.

[jravnsbo]

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

Assuming Dean gets the nomination, I see a likely (though NOT AT ALL certain) victory for Bush.

I won't say if I think it'll be a close election or a landslide for Bush; all that depends on Iraq and the economy by Nov. '04.  If both of those go down for Bush (they're looking up right now), it could really hurt him.

I actually think Dean would do better against Bush than some of the other frontrunners like Clark and Gephardt.  I think Bush wins all the states he carried in 2000 except possibly Ohio and New Hampshire.  I believe Bush will gain Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and POSSIBLY Wisconsin, Michigan, and even California.  Yes, I said California.

For the Senate, I think the GOP has about an 85-90% chance of winning in my state of GA.  I think Republicans will most likely win in every other southern state, except Florida and/or Louisiana, where the races will be too close to call, I predict.

In South Dakota, I really do believe Daschle could get kicked out by Thune.  Voter fraud messed Thune up last time; had the Dems not pulled that stunt, Thune would be in the senate right now.  I think the voter fraud of the 2002 election being public knowledge, S.D. being a pretty conservative Republican state, and the fact that Daschle attacked Bush on the eve of war may be just enough to get Thune in and Daschle out.

The governor races don't seem too much of a concern.  There aren't really that many critical seats open this cycle anyhow.

As far as the House goes....Man, does anybody actually see a situation where the House goes Dem?  Be honest now.

[zorkpolitics]

Its still a long way until Nov., but based on an improving economy I’ll make the following predictions:
Whitehouse:
Bush 52% Dean 47%, Bush wins all the states from 2000 plus NM, MN, IA, WI, and OR and maybe ME, PA, WA, MI

Senate:
Republicans lose IL, keep AK (close) and OK (easy) then pick up  4 of the 5 Southern open seats: NC, SC, FL, GA, but lose LA.  I think the big surprise will be how many Democratic incumbents lose: SD, WA, WI, NV all go Republican, CA is close but Boxer wins.  The net 7 seat gain for the Republicans is not only because Bush wins, but because Bush spends much of his $200 million “primary funds” to organize the grass roots, registering up to 3 million new GOP voters, and planning for the 72 hr GOTV.  All of this will benefit down ticket races.  In addition, after Bush reaches his $200 million in March, he will raise another $100 million for the key Senate and House races.

House:
Here I expect the Republicans to make fewer gains, pick up only 4 seats.  Redistricting has become a massive incumbency protection plan, only 34 candidates won by less than a 10% margin in 2000.  12 of those were first time winners and more likely to expand their margin than lose (only 4 incumbents lost in the 2002 general election, and those were in cases where redistricting was rigged against them).   So maybe the Republican get a net 1.  Of course it now looks like they’ll also pick up 5 or so seats in TX.  The real action is, always in open seats, so far the Republicans are at a disadvantage with 15 open seats to the 7 for the Democrats, resulting in net gain of 2 for the Democrats.  

[Inmate Trump]

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

The filing deadline for Ga is, I think, sometime in late April.  Don't know an exact date though.  So far, there are NO major Dems running, which is a big problem for them.  All potential candidates that stood a chance have declined to run.

On the Rep side, Johnny Isakson looks to be the frontrunner, with Mac Collins coming in at second.  I'm a Collins support myself, he's the more conservative one.  Isakson is very soft on abortion, so he's out, in my view - I really hope he doesn't get the nomination b/c I'd hate to have to vote for him.  That being said, I believe any Republican candidate would win here, in a state where Bush gets at least a 60% approval rating.

[jravnsbo]

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

The filing deadline for Ga is, I think, sometime in late April.  Don't know an exact date though.  So far, there are NO major Dems running, which is a big problem for them.  All potential candidates that stood a chance have declined to run.

On the Rep side, Johnny Isakson looks to be the frontrunner, with Mac Collins coming in at second.  I'm a Collins support myself, he's the more conservative one.  Isakson is very soft on abortion, so he's out, in my view - I really hope he doesn't get the nomination b/c I'd hate to have to vote for him.  That being said, I believe any Republican candidate would win here, in a state where Bush gets at least a 60% approval rating.

[Inmate Trump]

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

Oh, Cain would be a great senator.  Actually, he's my favorite of the three running, Collins being second and Isakon third.  The problem is, Cain doesn't have a chance at the nomination.  My whole thing is, I don't want Isakson to win, so my only option to derail him is to vote for Collins, who does have a chance at the nom...which isn't a bad thing b/c I like him too.

[jravnsbo]

Any polls out there yet?

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

Oh, Cain would be a great senator.  Actually, he's my favorite of the three running, Collins being second and Isakon third.  The problem is, Cain doesn't have a chance at the nomination.  My whole thing is, I don't want Isakson to win, so my only option to derail him is to vote for Collins, who does have a chance at the nom...which isn't a bad thing b/c I like him too.

[12th Doctor]

Which is the African American, I forget?

[StevenNick]

I read an article on Foxnews.com that cited a poll of likely South Dakota voters in a potential Daschle-Thune which showed that 50 percent of voters favor Daschle while 44 percent favor Thune.  The margin of error was five percent.

That poll can't be a good sign for Daschle.  Without any campaigning at all, Thune is within six points of a two-term incumbent (maybe closer).  Given that Thune really has nowhere to go but up, I give him the edge at this point.

[Inmate Trump]

Any polls out there yet?

I'm sure there are, but I haven't seen them.  I'm basing that on just the pure fact that Isakson is pretty well known and respected here.  He has run campaigns for governor, and (I think) senate all through the '90s and he came real close to winning once or twice.  Collins doesn't really have the name recognition and resume that Isakson has and Cain has less name recognition than Collins, plus there's the whole black factor...which doesn't affect my vote, but it does have an impact on others.

Then there's the fact that the guy whose seat is being fought for is extremely popular and he seems to be abandoning his own party by being the only (as far as I know) MAJOR Democrat endorsing Bush in 2004 - which could really hurt any Dem running for the senate seat, especially if Zell actively campaigns for Bush in Ga.  Zell could literally run for anything he wanted to and win in Georgia.

[Inmate Trump]

Which is the African American, I forget?

That would be Cain.

[StevenNick]

I updated my electoral prediction map if anyone cares to waltz on over to that section of the website and take a look (just search for my username).

I'd been thinking for the last few months that Dean, although ultimately doomed to electoral failure, would at least do substantially better than Dukakis, Mondale, or McGovern.  I thought that Dean would go down in a 1996 style election--Bush wins solidly, but Dean isn't embarrassed.  Since I posted my first map Dean went on to say a number of incredibly stupid things.  As James Carville (!) said, "[Dean] seems not to appreciate the value of the unspoken thought."  Dean's myriad of gaffes leads me to question the man's sanity as well as his ability to wage any kind of coherent, responsible, appealing campaign.  I increased Bush's take of the electoral vote to 461 to Deans 77.

[12th Doctor]

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

Oh, Cain would be a great senator.  Actually, he's my favorite of the three running, Collins being second and Isakon third.  The problem is, Cain doesn't have a chance at the nomination.  My whole thing is, I don't want Isakson to win, so my only option to derail him is to vote for Collins, who does have a chance at the nom...which isn't a bad thing b/c I like him too.

I went to Cain's website an dI really like what he has to say.  Also, I black Republican Senator would be a huge boon for the Democrats.  I would love to see all of that "The Republicans are the party of white men" crap get thrown back in their faces.  (Sigh) I really hope that he pulls it off.

[Gustaf]

Its still a long way until Nov., but based on an improving economy I’ll make the following predictions:
Whitehouse:
Bush 52% Dean 47%, Bush wins all the states from 2000 plus NM, MN, IA, WI, and OR and maybe ME, PA, WA, MI

Senate:
Republicans lose IL, keep AK (close) and OK (easy) then pick up  4 of the 5 Southern open seats: NC, SC, FL, GA, but lose LA.  I think the big surprise will be how many Democratic incumbents lose: SD, WA, WI, NV all go Republican, CA is close but Boxer wins.  The net 7 seat gain for the Republicans is not only because Bush wins, but because Bush spends much of his $200 million “primary funds” to organize the grass roots, registering up to 3 million new GOP voters, and planning for the 72 hr GOTV.  All of this will benefit down ticket races.  In addition, after Bush reaches his $200 million in March, he will raise another $100 million for the key Senate and House races.

House:
Here I expect the Republicans to make fewer gains, pick up only 4 seats.  Redistricting has become a massive incumbency protection plan, only 34 candidates won by less than a 10% margin in 2000.  12 of those were first time winners and more likely to expand their margin than lose (only 4 incumbents lost in the 2002 general election, and those were in cases where redistricting was rigged against them).   So maybe the Republican get a net 1.  Of course it now looks like they’ll also pick up 5 or so seats in TX.  The real action is, always in open seats, so far the Republicans are at a disadvantage with 15 open seats to the 7 for the Democrats, resulting in net gain of 2 for the Democrats.  

Wouldn't it be hard to win all of that with a margin of only 5%, considering the fact that the country is so polarized?

[dazzleman]

It remains to be seen.  The country was polarized in 1972, but Nixon won by a large margin.

It depends on just how numerous Bush's enemies are, and how badly the Democratic nominee stumbles, or doesn't stumble.

This election will be a referendum on the president, as most re-election campaigns are.  His enemies are very vocal, and many filled with hate, but traditionally in American politics, this repels swing voters.  The moveon.org ads comparing Bush to Hitler are a perfect example of something that repels the typical voter.

The Democrats are descending into negativity and hate, and that could really help Bush, but time will tell.  I tend to think that the president's political team is downplaying its election prospects in order to fire up its own supporters.