Who’s more likely to lose: Susan Collins or Joni Ernst?

[wbrocks67]

Probably Collins. I’m not optimistic about taking down Ernst in light of the IA-Gov results and somewhat underwhelming margins in the Congressional races.

Dems nearly won all 4 CDs....

[lfromnj]

Probably Collins. I’m not optimistic about taking down Ernst in light of the IA-Gov results and somewhat underwhelming margins in the Congressional races.

Dems nearly won all 4 CDs....

The 4th is an R vote sink that makes it possible for Dems to lose the state by 5 and win 3 dostrict. The 4th also had a neo nazi as its congressman so that's a big scandal

[MT Treasurer]

Neither will lose, so why ask?

I think both races are incredibly overhyped, but if there’s a recession/war and 2020 is a big Democratic wave, I could see one of them going down (narrowly).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither will lose, so why ask?

I think both races are incredibly overhyped, but if there’s a recession/war and 2020 is a big Democratic wave, I could see one of them going down (narrowly).

Yes, since the candidates aren' t known yet

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see the "Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins" narrative is already taking shape.

[Xing]

I see the "Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins" narrative is already taking shape.

It's been a thing for over a decade now, although she unironically used to be one. Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst has been a thing since at least early 2015, if not mid-2014.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see the "Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins" narrative is already taking shape.

It's been a thing for over a decade now, although she unironically used to be one. Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst has been a thing since at least early 2015, if not mid-2014.

Everybody is an Unbeatable Titan until they aren't.

[IceSpear]

Neither will lose, so why ask?

Just like 2018 would be a red wave, right?

[Politician]

Neither will lose, so why ask?

Just like 2018 would be a red wave, right?

This guy predicted Barbara Comstock would be re-elected, so he can be safely ignored.

[Person Man]

I would say Ernst, given how much more elastic Iowa is than Maine, as was proven by this year's results (bar the governorship). However, I honestly believe that Ernst is favored, and that she will win re-election relatively comfortably in 2020, possibly even by double digits. Collins, also, is favored, though because of polarization and her loss of goodwill among Democrats and independents, she will not win a over 60% blowout like she did in 2008 and 2014. She might be held to high single digits, but should still pull it out.

If Trump does well, I'd agree. By "well" I mean that he actually gets the most votes this time or even the barest of the majority.  This his best case scenario in the absence of a black swan victory that allows him to win by 10 points (basically he plays the trick where he wins all of the  third party votes from last election despite not being the second choice among almost all of them like W did in 2004).

If he loses, I think that he will generally drag them both down with Iowa being VERY close and Collins getting Blanched.

[President Phil Scott]

honestly, I think Collins. maybe by primary, though

Collins. by an of lot large margin

Blue state vs. red state, its that simple.

Not only so, but collons is is also much for likely to retire by 2020 than new sen. ernst (young) is

[MarkD]

I vote for Ernst, because she's a much less well-entrenched incumbent. There won't be a red wave to help her in 2020 like there was in 2014, meanwhile Collins does not need to ride on any waves. I don't think she will lose the GOP primary.

[MT Treasurer]

I vote for Ernst, because she's a much less well-entrenched incumbent. There won't be a red wave to help her in 2020 like there was in 2014, meanwhile Collins does not need to ride on any waves. I don't think she will lose the GOP primary.

Ernst does not need a red wave to win, though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Collins. She will not have a super easy time winning re-election as she has in the past. After her vote on Kavanaugh, Democrats will not cross over for her in large numbers.

[indietraveler]

Collins.

I don't know if moderate voters in Iowa view Ernst as toxic. I can see her squeaking by.

I knew Reynolds would outperform the R House races in the state, whether she won or lost, and I see a similar scenario taking place for Ernest in 2020:

She'll outperform Trump by a noticeable if not significant margin and likely the House races as well. I would not be surprised if Iowa flips against Trump in 2020, remains at 3-1 (or even 2-2-) D lean for the house AND Ernst gets reelected.