Who’s more likely to lose: Susan Collins or Joni Ernst?

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, I think Collins. maybe by primary, though

[MT Treasurer]

Damn, I voted Ernst but meant Collins. While I think Collins' vulnerability is overrated, Ernst is more likely to be a lifer than to lose in 2020, especially if the presidential race is competitive.

[IceSpear]

Collins because polarization. Trump is probably going to win Iowa and lose Maine. But I'd rate both lean R at this early juncture.

[Xing]

Probably Collins, but I don't think ME is a Toss-Up while IA is Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

My current prediction is Collins +3-8 and Ernst +8-15. I think if Dems win the majority, it will be by flipping CO, NC, MT (or maybe GA), and AZ. Maybe KS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My current prediction is Collins +3-8 and Ernst +8-15. I think if Dems win the majority, it will be by flipping CO, NC, MT (or maybe GA), and AZ. Maybe KS.

JD Scholton has Hubbell appeal. And the reason why Reynolds won due to demise of Boulton.

[Comrade Funk]

Collins has exposed herself as a fraud. I mean, she was always a fraud, but now it's obvious. At least Ernst is what she presented herself as. Collins is way more vulnerable, but ofc this all depends on the candidate.

[lfromnj]

Collins has exposed herself as a fraud. I mean, she was always a fraud, but now it's obvious. At least Ernst is what she presented herself as. Collins is way more vulnerable, but ofc this all depends on the candidate.

I think its more of her needing to be a Joe Manchin before like in 2012 when obama carried Maine by like 16 points but now its clear she can be more of a Jon Tester when Hillary only carried maine by 3 points.

[Jeppe]

I think Ernst. Collins still seems unusually popular in Maine, and her Kavanaugh vote seems to have helped her with Republican voters (for a primary).

Although Reynolds winning this year makes me think that Ernst may be tougher to dislodge than I initially thought. I think preliminary 2019 senate ratings would have Collins at "Likely Republican" and Ernst at "Lean Republican".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at politics1.com and look at IA, AZ, CO and ME and see how many challenges the GOP is getting. It's very clear, minus a Jeff Sessions in AL, that's the Dem majority. Not MT, AK or TX

[Pollster]

Keep in mind that ActBlue already has an account set up for "Susan Collins' eventual Democratic challenger" that already has a network of small donors attached to it and millions pre-raised. The Dem nominee, regardless of #CandidateQuality, starts with an advantage over Ernst's challenger.

[Pericles]

Maine is a Tossup in a good Dem year and Lean R in a neutral environment. Ernst seems likely to hang on in Iowa unless the environment gets really grim for the GOP.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Collins because polarization.

[MAINEiac4434]

Collins’s state elected a D Governor by a good margin and sent D majorities to both legislative chambers.

[politicallefty]

Probably Collins. I’m not optimistic about taking down Ernst in light of the IA-Gov results and somewhat underwhelming margins in the Congressional races.

[History505]

Collins, I'd think Ernst would have a better chance of surviving.

[Karpatsky]

My current prediction is Collins +3-8 and Ernst +8-15. I think if Dems win the majority, it will be by flipping CO, NC, MT (or maybe GA), and AZ. Maybe KS.

Dems need 5 to win a majority assuming Jones goes down.

[YE]

Collins but both are more vulnerable than people think.

[Oryxslayer]

My current prediction is Collins +3-8 and Ernst +8-15. I think if Dems win the majority, it will be by flipping CO, NC, MT (or maybe GA), and AZ. Maybe KS.

Dems need 5 to win a majority assuming Jones goes down.

Your assuming Trump survives. If dems are winning the senate, Trump has already lost.

[Karpatsky]

My current prediction is Collins +3-8 and Ernst +8-15. I think if Dems win the majority, it will be by flipping CO, NC, MT (or maybe GA), and AZ. Maybe KS.

Dems need 5 to win a majority assuming Jones goes down.

Your assuming Trump survives. If dems are winning the senate, Trump has already lost.

I guess you're probably right.

[fluffypanther19]

collins

[PAK Man]

Ernst. A competent Democrat who isn't from Des Moines should be able to knock her off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both will lose.

[Young Conservative]

Neither will lose, so why ask?

[Calthrina950]

I would say Ernst, given how much more elastic Iowa is than Maine, as was proven by this year's results (bar the governorship). However, I honestly believe that Ernst is favored, and that she will win re-election relatively comfortably in 2020, possibly even by double digits. Collins, also, is favored, though because of polarization and her loss of goodwill among Democrats and independents, she will not win a over 60% blowout like she did in 2008 and 2014. She might be held to high single digits, but should still pull it out.