It is possible he could end up a bit higher if there are too many candidates still in, however, simply because a lot of those candidates will end up not meeting the viability requirement in many caucuses.
It's interesting that you say that, because the Iowa Dems have agreed in principle to
reforming the caucus process in a way that will likely lead to them releasing the initial tally of voter support, before support is reallocated based on viability (though the details have yet to be worked out, so this isn't a certainty). Assuming this happens, then it's unclear how the media will report the caucus results. Will they have both "popular vote" and "state delegate equivalent" numbers side by side? My guess would be yes, and that the media would treat the former as the "real" number, even though from a delegate perspective it doesn't matter.
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