Why is Florida trending R?

[White Trash]

With the election of a Republican senator and governor in a Democrat favorable midterm election, why does it seem that despite ethnic demographic changes Florida is swinging to the Right? Some in the 2020 election board are saying that it's lean R while states like Arizona are a tossup. What is going on in Florida?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Influx of retirees into the state. Plus, Cubans (one of the largest Hispanic demographics in the state) tend to be more conservative than other Latinos.

[YE]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

[Hydera]

Instead of Trending R the better question is how Florida is still competitive despite demographic changes. And its basically because the Republicans have been able to push for more white votes.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

I thought that Hillary performed more strongly among Cubans than Obama did?

[Pericles]

Hard to tell yet if it really is. Crist won by 7 in 2006 in a D+8 environment after Bush won by 5 in 2004. Scott only won by 1 in 2010 in a very Republican environment yet Florida didn't become a blue state. And Rubio won by 8 while Trump won by less than 2%, so if Scott overperformed by Rubio levels then Trump would lose in a landslide. I'm not saying this is the case, but Florida is a weird state and we should wait until 2020 before definitively saying it has trended R from its current stop as a swing state that perhaps has a GOP tilt.

[TML]

The main reason appears to be an influx of elderly ex-Midwesterners into the suburbs/exurbs of Orlando/Tampa.

[Politician]

Retirees. This effect was masked in 2016 by Trump's losses with Cubans, but Scott and DeSantis performed normally with them.

[Orser67]

I'm not saying this is the case, but Florida is a weird state and we should wait until 2020 before definitively saying it has trended R from its current stop as a swing state that perhaps has a GOP tilt.

This so much. The results in Florida were a good sign for Republican hopes in the state, and a major disappointment for Democrats, but people on this forum are massively overreacting to two one-point Republican victories.

This is a state that voted about three points to the right of the national popular vote in 2016, 2012, 2008, and 2004, and that has consistently favored Republicans at the state level. It's not suddenly trending to the right because of two extremely close elections in one midterm.

[Skill and Chance]

Retirees. This effect was masked in 2016 by Trump's losses with Cubans, but Scott and DeSantis performed normally with them.

This.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it's can be won by a better candidate other than Crist or Gillum

[TDAS04]

I wonder if younger whites in Florida are more conservative than the state's older whites.   Many of the retirees came from the the Northeastern US and settled in the South Florida metro, and North Florida might be demographically younger.

I could be wrong, though. 

[TML]

I wonder if younger whites in Florida are more conservative than the state's older whites.   Many of the retirees came from the the Northeastern US and settled in the South Florida metro, and North Florida might be demographically younger.

I could be wrong, though. 

The fastest growing municipality in FL is The Villages, which is in Central FL. This area's retirees mostly came from the Midwest and are thus relatively conservative. As I said earlier in the thread, it is these Midwestern retirees moving into Central FL which has comprised the bulk of new Republican strength in FL.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I wonder if younger whites in Florida are more conservative than the state's older whites.   Many of the retirees came from the the Northeastern US and settled in the South Florida metro, and North Florida might be demographically younger.

I could be wrong, though. 

The fastest growing municipality in FL is The Villages, which is in Central FL. This area's retirees mostly came from the Midwest and are thus relatively conservative. As I said earlier in the thread, it is these Midwestern retirees moving into Central FL which has comprised the bulk of new Republican strength in FL.

This whole I-4 corridor boom doesn't make sense to me. Why aren't retirees flooding to Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach like they used to, when those places have beaches and more retirement amenities. The Villages is just humid scrub.

[LabourJersey]

I wonder if younger whites in Florida are more conservative than the state's older whites.   Many of the retirees came from the the Northeastern US and settled in the South Florida metro, and North Florida might be demographically younger.

I could be wrong, though. 

The fastest growing municipality in FL is The Villages, which is in Central FL. This area's retirees mostly came from the Midwest and are thus relatively conservative. As I said earlier in the thread, it is these Midwestern retirees moving into Central FL which has comprised the bulk of new Republican strength in FL.

This whole I-4 corridor boom doesn't make sense to me. Why aren't retirees flooding to Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach like they used to, when those places have beaches and more retirement amenities. The Villages is just humid scrub.

I assume it's because the cost of living is higher in Miami Dad/Broward, and also conservative midwesterners probably prefer small town living to urban life. But it's certainly is humid scrub

[Person Man]

I wonder if younger whites in Florida are more conservative than the state's older whites.   Many of the retirees came from the the Northeastern US and settled in the South Florida metro, and North Florida might be demographically younger.

I could be wrong, though. 

The fastest growing municipality in FL is The Villages, which is in Central FL. This area's retirees mostly came from the Midwest and are thus relatively conservative. As I said earlier in the thread, it is these Midwestern retirees moving into Central FL which has comprised the bulk of new Republican strength in FL.

This whole I-4 corridor boom doesn't make sense to me. Why aren't retirees flooding to Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach like they used to, when those places have beaches and more retirement amenities. The Villages is just humid scrub.

I assume it's because the cost of living is higher in Miami Dad/Broward, and also conservative midwesterners probably prefer small town living to urban life. But it's certainly is humid scrub

One thing to consider if this is the case is that right now, a generation where Republicans did much better with from get go is retiring and they are the biggest generation in history until the current generation.

It's crazy how they are the ones who did the Woodstock stuff in their early twenties  but by their early 30s, they were the center of Reagan's coalition. Reagan even had some of the same down ballot problems that Obama did due to being too out of the mainstream for older more reliable voters. In 10 years, they will all be between 70 and 90 years old. At that point, their health will start to fail en masse a few years after that and they will be replaced by a smaller not quite as conservative generation.

There are four ways to preserve the trends these retiring people bring with them-

By 2030, there is a good enough handle on age-related disease that 90 becomes the rule rather than the exception even among those who are fat asses, had multiple cancers, or have multiple missing organs.

Trump actually succeeds in making America "great" again or at least succeeds in regards to retarding  the current demographic changes enough to make a difference.

It's truly that old people in general are Republican because they are afraid that Democrats will raise their taxes to fund improvements they "can't afford" on a fixed income.

#WalkAway is an actual thing in Florida.

 Then again, Scott always had this perception of being a #Populist to Puerto Ricans in Florida. In fact, the last time I was down here, I was dating this Puerto Rican girl of whom I was the first boy she dated in several years. She even got arrested for getting in a fight with her ex girlfriend. So you have a 29 year old LGBT Puerto Rican lower-working class  woman who said "Scott takes care of us. There was this bullet train he cancelled because we "can't afford" it". She really wasn't that political. Scott always had a reputation of campaigning in communities he was disadvantaged in. In 2012, Pitbull campaigned for Obama. In 2014, he campaigned for Scott. In 2018, while Nelson was being lazy, Scott aired Spanish ads along with his ads about how he would be a good senator because he was so rich and by just falling short of running ads of mangled fetuses with the word "Nelson" scrolling across the screen.

You also have to understand that most Cuban refugees were middle and upper class and that Cubans are no less white than the Quebecois. Seriously. If they are Hispanic, than so am I. The best true way to analyze Cubans is to analyze them the same way you would Italians, Portuguese, Poles, or other "Ethnic" whites that never really ventured out of the Big City or 'burbs in great numbers. With this in mind, a 63% white electorate is a 71% white electorate.

The two other major features are the demands of the growing cities versus the fixed incomes of an artificially graying population. These are the ones that matter. This in turn could create a counter-current as jobs down here pay about average in the cities and 20% less in the burbs. With this being a service industry state, what happens to the cities when the great Olds rush stops? I guess were not a rust belt state at lesst.

Other long term risks are as the climate changes, by the time I am retirement age, Tampa or even Orlando could qualify like Miami and WPB do in terms of having a "tropical" climate. So Florida will be less like Hong Kong and more like Southern India. Will that make it harder for old people?

Will the rising seas really be that much of a buzz kill when you can just move things around? I was living 4 miles inland and was at 22 feet above sea level. There won't be any shortage of the actual map for a few hundred years of rising seas.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

Cubans have always voted Republican because they favored the GOP's vehement anti-communism boner of the Cold War.

[TML]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

Cubans have always voted Republican because they favored the GOP's vehement anti-communism boner of the Cold War.

Older Cuban-Americans (who fled directly from Cuba) lean R, but younger ones (born in the US) lean D.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

Cubans have always voted Republican because they favored the GOP's vehement anti-communism boner of the Cold War.

Don’t see how that is a bad thing


The GOP was clearly correct on Foreign Policy during that era

[Sbane]

Are Puerto Ricans going to vote for Trump though? Are Cubans? Especially younger Cubans who will be coming out in bigger numbers in 2020. There is an age gap among Hispanic and White voters in Florida. I don't think Trump is favored here in 2020.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Instead of Trending R the better question is how Florida is still competitive despite demographic changes. And its basically because the Republicans have been able to push for more white votes.

Rick Scott won 45% of hispanic voters if we to believe CNN exit poll



I read Scott did reasonably well among Puerto rican voters in Florida (the article claimed Scott has been supportive to Post-Maria Puerto ricans moving to Florida).

which is surprising.....

Scott also did a ton of outreach to Puerto Ricans, which Nelson failed to do until it was too late.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems didn't have a presidential nominee to carry the economic message. Healthcare was on the ballot. Trump refuses to reform Social Security and Biden and BOOKER will drive that home

[UWS]

Cubans seem to be trending R for some reason.

And the reason is that they suffered Fidel Castro's dictatorship.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL, OH and IA can be won, if the economic message on reforming Social Security, with retirees, coming of age, goes over well. Y2K generation are coming of age now, and replacing Boomers. Especially in the Puerto Rican, non Cuban, community.

[Sumner 1868]

reforming Social Security

What do you mean by "reform"?

Anyway, part of the reason Florida is increasingly good for the GOP is that Drumpf does not favor privatizing Social Security. That was always the Democrats strongest card in Florida, but for now it's off the table.