Rate Louisiana 2019

[Zaybay]

Likely R. Polarization.

You've completely flipped on this?  Or sarcasm?

Definitely sarcasm.

[smoltchanov]

The race is unlikely to go up more then "Lean D" simply because the state is red enough, but for the time being probably somewhere between Tilt and Lean D. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pure tossup

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Polarization.

You've completely flipped on this?  Or sarcasm?

Well, I had the race as Lean/Likely D before because I was (unsurprisingly) unintelligent enough to believe that a relatively popular pro-life, pro-gun incumbent Catholic Democratic governor who managed to win by 12 points when Obama was president and is now ahead by double digits in polling could win reelection in an off-year election with a Republican president in the White House who has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm. However, I’ve finally seen the light and come to the inevitable conclusion that this race (just like MS) is clearly Lean/Likely R because, well, polarization and inelasticity. Tbh, if Trump does even one campaign event, Edwards' lead will be evaporated with the snap of a finger.

[lfromnj]

Likely R. Polarization.

You've completely flipped on this?  Or sarcasm?

Well, I had the race as Lean/Likely D before because I was (unsurprisingly) unintelligent enough to believe that a relatively popular pro-life, pro-gun incumbent Catholic Democratic governor who managed to win by 12 points when Obama was president and is now ahead by double digits in polling could win reelection in an off-year election with a Republican president in the White House who has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm. However, I’ve finally seen the light and come to the inevitable conclusion that this race (just like MS) is clearly Lean/Likely R because, well, polarization and inelasticity. Tbh, if Trump does even one campaign event, Edwards' lead will be evaporated with the snap of a finger.

has anybody serious actually called this worse than a tossup though? I was on the edge of Likely D but Abraham moves it to Lean D as its atleast a non joke tier opponent.  Its still looking good for JBE.

[Lechasseur]

Likely R. Polarization.

You've completely flipped on this?  Or sarcasm?

Well, I had the race as Lean/Likely D before because I was (unsurprisingly) unintelligent enough to believe that a relatively popular pro-life, pro-gun incumbent Catholic Democratic governor who managed to win by 12 points when Obama was president and is now ahead by double digits in polling could win reelection in an off-year election with a Republican president in the White House who has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm. However, I’ve finally seen the light and come to the inevitable conclusion that this race (just like MS) is clearly Lean/Likely R because, well, polarization and inelasticity. Tbh, if Trump does even one campaign event, Edwards' lead will be evaporated with the snap of a finger.

has anybody serious actually called this worse than a tossup though? I was on the edge of Likely D but Abraham moves it to Lean D as its atleast a non joke tier opponent.  Its still looking good for JBE.

Yeah I agree

[Technocracy Timmy]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

[Bidenworth2020]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

[Technocracy Timmy]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

[lfromnj]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

Timmy I generally agree with you but at these levels a lot of weird stuff can happen like SD 19th. Even then I was about to stick a fork in goj

[Technocracy Timmy]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

Timmy I generally agree with you but at these levels a lot of weird stuff can happen like SD 19th. Even then I was about to stick a fork in goj

The cumulative house total in Louisiana in the highest turnout midterm in over 100 years still had the GOP winning by 19 points. Seems like regardless of turnout that the state keeps electing republicans by very high double digits.

[Bidenworth2020]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

[Technocracy Timmy]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

[Bidenworth2020]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

I do not think anyone thinks Bel-Edwards will win based on high dem turnout. He has shown himself a formidable force when he beat the incumbent senator by 13 points. He also maintains high approvals. I don’t think you can name a single person with approvals as high as him that lost.

[lfromnj]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

I do not think anyone thinks Bel-Edwards will win based on high dem turnout. He has shown himself a formidable force when he beat the incumbent senator by 13 points. He also maintains high approvals. I don’t think you can name a single person with approvals as high as him that lost.

Bob Ehrlich

[Technocracy Timmy]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

I do not think anyone thinks Bel-Edwards will win based on high dem turnout. He has shown himself a formidable force when he beat the incumbent senator by 13 points. He also maintains high approvals. I don’t think you can name a single person with approvals as high as him that lost.

He beat a proven adulterer who had a diaper fetish. Also you’re assuming that his approvals will stay just as high now heading into Election Day.

Scott Brown had over 50% approval rating months before the 2012 election but still lost due to polarization.

[Bidenworth2020]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

I do not think anyone thinks Bel-Edwards will win based on high dem turnout. He has shown himself a formidable force when he beat the incumbent senator by 13 points. He also maintains high approvals. I don’t think you can name a single person with approvals as high as him that lost.

He beat a proven adulterer who had a diaper fetish. Also you’re assuming that his approvals will stay just as high now heading into Election Day.

Scott Brown had over 50% approval rating months before the 2012 election but still lost due to polarization.

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

[Mr. Smith]

After seeing the SOS race which occurred as a runoff in an anti-Trump national environment end in a total trouncing of the Democrat (20 point R win lmao), I would hope the #Analysis types who thought Edwards was favored will finally realize that southern evangelical (and apparently catholic LA) whites are far more polarized in the age of Trump than they realized even when it comes to statewide and local races.

Mock polarization and the hick rhetoric all you want but the SOS runoff results don’t lie.

... It was 8% turnout.

I thought low turnout was suppose to help Dems in the anti-Trump environment? Now it’s bad for them?

It isn’t good or bad for them. My point is you can’t extrapolate much from an election that had horrible turnout and use it as evidence for a certain outcome in a race likely to have at least 4x the turnout. Is that Trump +50 seat dems won by 37 in a special signify a 87 point swing to Bevin in 2019? No, it is low turnout.

How many low turnout special elections have we had in the Trump era where the electorate was more Republican than expected? The closest I can think of was GA-6 which definitely wasn’t low turnout for a special.

LA SOS stands out pretty clearly.

I do not think anyone thinks Bel-Edwards will win based on high dem turnout. He has shown himself a formidable force when he beat the incumbent senator by 13 points. He also maintains high approvals. I don’t think you can name a single person with approvals as high as him that lost.

He beat a proven adulterer who had a diaper fetish. Also you’re assuming that his approvals will stay just as high now heading into Election Day.

Scott Brown had over 50% approval rating months before the 2012 election but still lost due to polarization.

Equivalent conservadem Charles Melanchon couldn't even come close in 2010 despite all those factors being true even then.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

Uhhhhh 2018 only saw ONE red state elect a Democrat to their governorship: Kansas. And that came heavily from the D trending educated areas like Johnson county coupled with awful handling by the state GOP of the economy. Compare that to the Republicans that got easily re-elected in deep blue states like MD, MA, and VT the same year.

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around. LA 2015 increasingly looks like a total fluke compared to today’s polarized climate. So long as the GOP doesn’t dominate a diaper fetish lover whose banging a bunch of side chicks, they’ll probably win.

[MT Treasurer]

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around.

Mayyybeee in gubernatorial races (although even then it really depends on the state/candidates), but certainly not in Senate/federal races.

Anyway, JBE is hardly a generic liberal Democrat like Collins-Greenup, so I don’t think this race tells us a lot about what’s going to happen next year. That said, I’m moving it from Likely D to Lean D out of caution, since yesterday was definitely a Democratic underperformance.

[Bidenworth2020]

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

Uhhhhh 2018 only saw ONE red state elect a Democrat to their governorship: Kansas. And that came heavily from the D trending educated areas like Johnson county coupled with awful handling by the state GOP of the economy. Compare that to the Republicans that got easily re-elected in deep blue states like MD, MA, and VT the same year.

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around. LA 2015 increasingly looks like a total fluke compared to today’s polarized climate. So long as the GOP doesn’t dominate a diaper fetish lover whose banging a bunch of side chicks, they’ll probably win.

That same guy got easily re-elected in 2010. JBE not only beat him, but BTFO’d him. That was when he was a random state legislature against an incumbent senator. Now HE is the incumbent going into his re-election at a dem friendly time with high approvals.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

Uhhhhh 2018 only saw ONE red state elect a Democrat to their governorship: Kansas. And that came heavily from the D trending educated areas like Johnson county coupled with awful handling by the state GOP of the economy. Compare that to the Republicans that got easily re-elected in deep blue states like MD, MA, and VT the same year.

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around. LA 2015 increasingly looks like a total fluke compared to today’s polarized climate. So long as the GOP doesn’t dominate a diaper fetish lover whose banging a bunch of side chicks, they’ll probably win.

That same guy got easily re-elected in 2010. JBE not only beat him, but BTFO’d him. That was when he was a random state legislature against an incumbent senator. Now HE is the incumbent going into his re-election at a dem friendly time with high approvals.

Yes he was a great candidate simply cuz he had the magic R but that was ENTIRELY pre-hooker/diaper fetish. We don’t know how he would’ve held up against a pro life Dem in 2010 with that crap on his resume. The incumbency advantage in 2018 was pretty low iirc. It only garnered candidates an average of 2-3 points. That’s not enough to help Edwards if he’s on track to lose by 4+ against a normal Republican.


This race is a pure tossup this early on. We’ll see where JBE’s favorables are when the election actually gets rolling. I’m getting Bredesen vibes about this race.

[Bidenworth2020]

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

Uhhhhh 2018 only saw ONE red state elect a Democrat to their governorship: Kansas. And that came heavily from the D trending educated areas like Johnson county coupled with awful handling by the state GOP of the economy. Compare that to the Republicans that got easily re-elected in deep blue states like MD, MA, and VT the same year.

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around. LA 2015 increasingly looks like a total fluke compared to today’s polarized climate. So long as the GOP doesn’t dominate a diaper fetish lover whose banging a bunch of side chicks, they’ll probably win.

That same guy got easily re-elected in 2010. JBE not only beat him, but BTFO’d him. That was when he was a random state legislature against an incumbent senator. Now HE is the incumbent going into his re-election at a dem friendly time with high approvals.

Yes he was a great candidate simply cuz he had the magic R but that was ENTIRELY pre-hooker/diaper fetish. We don’t know how he would’ve held up against a pro life Dem in 2010 with that crap on his resume. The incumbency advantage in 2018 was pretty low iirc. It only garnered candidates an average of 2-3 points. That’s not enough to help Edwards if he’s on track to lose by 4+ against a normal Republican.


This race is a pure tossup this early on. We’ll see where JBE’s favorables are when the election actually gets rolling. I’m getting Bredesen vibes about this race.

The hooker stuff was already out before the 2010 election

[Technocracy Timmy]

Scott was in a senate race. This year in MA, they happily and easily re-elected their RINO.

Uhhhhh 2018 only saw ONE red state elect a Democrat to their governorship: Kansas. And that came heavily from the D trending educated areas like Johnson county coupled with awful handling by the state GOP of the economy. Compare that to the Republicans that got easily re-elected in deep blue states like MD, MA, and VT the same year.

The fact is that Republicans are far less likely to vote for a Democrat than the other way around. LA 2015 increasingly looks like a total fluke compared to today’s polarized climate. So long as the GOP doesn’t dominate a diaper fetish lover whose banging a bunch of side chicks, they’ll probably win.

That same guy got easily re-elected in 2010. JBE not only beat him, but BTFO’d him. That was when he was a random state legislature against an incumbent senator. Now HE is the incumbent going into his re-election at a dem friendly time with high approvals.

Yes he was a great candidate simply cuz he had the magic R but that was ENTIRELY pre-hooker/diaper fetish. We don’t know how he would’ve held up against a pro life Dem in 2010 with that crap on his resume. The incumbency advantage in 2018 was pretty low iirc. It only garnered candidates an average of 2-3 points. That’s not enough to help Edwards if he’s on track to lose by 4+ against a normal Republican.


This race is a pure tossup this early on. We’ll see where JBE’s favorables are when the election actually gets rolling. I’m getting Bredesen vibes about this race.

The hooker stuff was already out before the 2010 election

Fair enough. Although these type of scandals did hurt Republicans in Alabama senate and probably cost Trump a lot of that 3 million vote margin in 2016. Voters seem to care enough about them that when a normal Republican without the adultery is presented like we saw in MO-SEN, IN-SEN, TN-SEN, ND-SEN and also in OK-GOV, OH-GOV, IA-GOV, etc they’ll elect the Republican.