Rate Louisiana 2019
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Toss up		  
#6
Tilt D		  
#7
Lean D		  
#8
Likely D		  
#9
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 101

Author Topic: Rate Louisiana 2019  (Read 3667 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
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« on: November 24, 2018, 03:12:27 PM »
?
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2018, 03:13:27 PM »
Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup. Edwards is popular and the GOP candidates aren't exactly impressive. Tossup if Kennedy runs, though.
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DaWN
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2018, 03:15:05 PM »
Lean R with Kennedy, Lean D without.
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Skunk
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2018, 03:15:58 PM »
Lean D. Also I really think this talk of Kennedy running is just noise, leaving the Senate for Governor of Louisiana just seems like a massive downgrade, not to mention Kennedy's wanted to be a Senator forever. Although like said above, if he does get in it's probably Tossup or Lean R.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2018, 03:17:23 PM »
Since gubernatorial races are less partisan than Senate races, I'll say Tilt/Lean D, since he's pretty popular.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2018, 03:20:45 PM »
Tossup
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andjey
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2018, 03:40:43 PM »
Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup
If Kennedy runs, Lean R, closer to Tossup than Likely
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2018, 06:35:09 PM »
Toss up. Likely R if Kennedy runs.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2018, 06:41:33 PM »
Likely R. Kennedy is running. Even if he isn't, it's Lean R with Landry. Maybe a Toss Up with Abraham.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2018, 12:35:41 AM »
Quote from: DaWN on November 24, 2018, 03:15:05 PM
Lean R with Kennedy, Lean D without.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2018, 01:52:24 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on November 24, 2018, 05:44:30 PM
Likely D, closer to Lean than Safe. Edwards has little to worry about unless Kennedy runs.

Kathleen Blanco was the only gov not to be reelected, JBL can win
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White Trash
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2018, 02:01:05 AM »
I'm gonna be bold and say Likely D. Closer to lean than safe, but this is really Edwards' game to lose.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2018, 02:23:14 AM »
Quote from: White Trash on November 25, 2018, 02:01:05 AM
I'm gonna be bold and say Likely D. Closer to lean than safe, but this is really Edwards' game to lose.
how does jbe do in acadia?
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pops
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2018, 02:49:30 AM »
With the campaign in full swing and constant anti-Trump media coming from the (at least) dozen Democrats who will be running at that point? Safe D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2018, 04:24:22 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2018, 04:27:56 AM by Cory Booker »
Blanco was the only Gov, not reelected, and it was due to Nagin and Katrina. Odds are good JBE gets reelected, but it's a tossup.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2018, 04:34:40 AM »
Governor: Lean D - Edwards
Lieutenant Governor: Safe R - Nungesser
Attorney General: Lean R - Landry
Secretary of State: Likely R - Ardoin
Treasurer: Safe R - Schroder
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Storr
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2018, 04:46:22 AM »
Quote from: Kingpoleon on November 25, 2018, 04:34:40 AM
Governor: Lean D - Edwards
Lieutenant Governor: Safe R - Nungesser
Attorney General: Lean R - Landry
Secretary of State: Likely R - Ardoin
Treasurer: Safe R - Schroder

Is there any particular reason AG race may be more competitive that the rest of the down-ballot statewide races?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2018, 06:40:23 AM »
Quote from: Storr on November 25, 2018, 04:46:22 AM
Quote from: Kingpoleon on November 25, 2018, 04:34:40 AM
Governor: Lean D - Edwards
Lieutenant Governor: Safe R - Nungesser
Attorney General: Lean R - Landry
Secretary of State: Likely R - Ardoin
Treasurer: Safe R - Schroder

Is there any particular reason AG race may be more competitive that the rest of the down-ballot statewide races?

IIRC - Landry is a much more polarizing figure.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2018, 03:14:32 PM »
IDK, it comes down to whether 2015 was about Edwards being a particularly good candidate or Vitter being a particularly bad one.  There's a good argument that he's in the same camp as Donnelly/McCaskill/Doug Jones and only won because he had a particularly bad opponent.  On the other hand, he won by 12 and seems to have stayed legitimately popular.  Toss Up for now, but I think he either wins by 10ish or loses by 10ish.

On another note, is the veto override threshold in play in the lower house of the LA state legislature?  IDK if the Dem margin there to sustain JBE's vetoes comes from the remaining rural Blue Dog seats or the VRA seats?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2018, 03:36:07 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 25, 2018, 03:14:32 PM
IDK, it comes down to whether 2015 was about Edwards being a particularly good candidate or Vitter being a particularly bad one.  There's a good argument that he's in the same camp as Donnelly/McCaskill/Doug Jones and only won because he had a particularly bad opponent.  On the other hand, he won by 12 and seems to have stayed legitimately popular.  Toss Up for now, but I think he either wins by 10ish or loses by 10ish.

On another note, is the veto override threshold in play in the lower house of the LA state legislature?  IDK if the Dem margin there to sustain JBE's vetoes comes from the remaining rural Blue Dog seats or the VRA seats?
vittermwas trash, sure, but he was also strong. However, the Jindal factor is likely underrated.
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White Trash
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« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2018, 05:32:43 PM »
Quote from: politicalmasta73 on November 25, 2018, 02:23:14 AM
Quote from: White Trash on November 25, 2018, 02:01:05 AM
I'm gonna be bold and say Likely D. Closer to lean than safe, but this is really Edwards' game to lose.
how does jbe do in acadia?
Pretty well. There's a decent amount of surviving conservative Democrats in Cajun communities. Not enough to turn counties but enough to push him over the top statewide.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2018, 10:14:48 PM »

This. And even if Kennedy doesn't run, I think the Republican candidate opposing Edwards would have a slight advantage.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2018, 10:29:44 PM »
It completely depends on who the Republicans nominate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2018, 10:46:03 PM »
These races, in a Clinton midterm are toast for Dems. But, it's a Trump midterm, and Beshear and JBE and Hood have WWC appeal, unlike Espy, Abrams or Gillam
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2018, 01:19:01 PM »
titanium R. period.
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