Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[jimrtex]

So far, I've got this:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = mixed or non-partisan commission
Gray = at-large seat

Or are there any new states with commissions?

Maryland is under court order to redraw its congressional districts by 2020.

That will get appealed to SCOTUS.  It's a partisan gerrymandering case, so if they rule against Maryland, congressional maps would need to be redrawn for 2020 in upwards of half the states.

The governor doesn't want to appeal. The election authorities are neutral. The DNC will want the precedent. If Maryland loses, federal criminal civil rights charges might be brought against individual bad actors like Mile Miller, Martin O'Malley, and Steny Hoyer.

[Skill and Chance]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

[Gass3268]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Hopefully they combine this case with North Carolina.

[jimrtex]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

[Oryxslayer]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned.  

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

If everything goes the Republicans way in this battle, then the legislature will just cut Trone loose and ensure the remaining six are safe forever. I'm also fairly sure a district solely with PG and other Dem areas counts as illegal racial packing.

[politicallefty]

Any maps for Governor Cooper?

I’m assuming this goes to the 4th Circuit first before SCOTUS, which has binding precedent over VA, WV, NC, and SC as well as MD. Last time I checked, Maryland is not the only one of those states that is visciously gerrymandered. Ultimately, this should go to SCOTUS anyway. If there is going to be a constitutional claim against partisan gerrymandering, it should apply to all 50 states. In spite of MD, I do hope we can get a broad ruling. With the current composition of the Court, I’m not optimistic.

[Gustaf]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

[Nyvin]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Yeah, because the identical case in North Carolina worked out just like that..../sarcasm

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Roberts and Kavanaugh will rule that it is OK for Republicans to gerrymander, but not OK for Democrats to gerrymander.

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Roberts and Kavanaugh will rule that it is OK for Republicans to gerrymander, but not OK for Democrats to gerrymander.

That's basically what they would be saying if they struck down the Maryland map, but not the ones in NC and OH or AL and LA where Dems were cheated out of a second AA majority (or near AA majority) seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Roberts and Kavanaugh will rule that it is OK for Republicans to gerrymander, but not OK for Democrats to gerrymander.

I mean as much as a few conservatives on the court want to say this (Kavanaugh), we are a nation of laws that apply to everyone.  If they uphold the Maryland case, it will be used by dems everywhere as precedent to chuck out Pub maps. This is what ascending to the Supreme court does, it gives you a Long-Range Perspective. It is in the conservative majorities interest to let dems have this one seat for two years, rather then give pubs the seat and open the door to many more future pub losses.

So, I guess I would love them to set precedent that Gerrymandering violates an individuals First Amendment rights, because it gives us as a nation a position from which we can throw out not just racial gerrymanders but political gerrymanders.

[jimrtex]

Any maps for Governor Cooper?

I’m assuming this goes to the 4th Circuit first before SCOTUS, which has binding precedent over VA, WV, NC, and SC as well as MD. Last time I checked, Maryland is not the only one of those states that is visciously gerrymandered. Ultimately, this should go to SCOTUS anyway. If there is going to be a constitutional claim against partisan gerrymandering, it should apply to all 50 states. In spite of MD, I do hope we can get a broad ruling. With the current composition of the Court, I’m not optimistic.

Redistricting cases are automatically* heard by a three-judge panel, which includes a judge from the district where the case is being heard, another district judge from the circuit (often, though not necessarily from a different state or district), and a judge from the appeals court. The two additional judges are assigned by the chief judge of the circuit.

Appeals are directly to the SCOTUS.

*originally the district judge had refused to request a 3-judge panel, in essence saying that the suit was frivolous. The SCOTUS ordered that there be a 3-judge panel.

O'Malley was a prick in his deposition. He was asked where he lived, and he said in the "land of the free and the home of the brave". His phone went off and he apologized saying that he used to have 27,000 employees to take care of things like that. I was disappointed when after asking when he was governor, they didn't brightly ask, "You're no longer governor?"

[jimrtex]

Any maps for Governor Cooper?

The governor in North Carolina has no responsibility for redistricting. He can't even call the legislature into special session by himself.

This is what I would recommend for the legislature.

[politicallefty]

Any maps for Governor Cooper?

The governor in North Carolina has no responsibility for redistricting. He can't even call the legislature into special session by himself.

This is what I would recommend for the legislature.

Cooper has as much power as Hogan, which is to say none. Your map is a blatant gerrymander.

I’d love to see how SCOTUS rules against MD as a partisan gerrymander while leaving states like NC intact

[jimrtex]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Two of the judges said Maryland's action was retaliatory. In effect, the O'Malley-Miller-Hoyer gang deliberately sought to injure the civil rights of some citizens merely because they were Republican.

[Nyvin]

Any maps for Governor Cooper?

The governor in North Carolina has no responsibility for redistricting. He can't even call the legislature into special session by himself.

This is what I would recommend for the legislature.

Cooper has as much power as Hogan, which is to say none. Your map is a blatant gerrymander.

I’d love to see how SCOTUS rules against MD as a partisan gerrymander while leaving states like NC intact

Also pretty much illegal since it eliminates the VRA district in the northeast.

[MAINEiac4434]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

Louisiana's gerrymander is so bad. New Orleans and Baton Rouge in the same district?

The first isn't even contiguous.

[lfromnj]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

[lfromnj]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

I don't think you could possibly do four black friendly seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

That would be impossible and also breaks the VRA. The best MD Black Dems can hope for is the 2 VRA required black majority seats (1 each in Baltimore and DC suburbs) and 1 majority minority seat in the DC suburbs.
4 black seats is impossible.

[Nyvin]

Three black seats is the most you can possibly draw,  one in Baltimore and two in the Prince Georges area.   4 would require plurality seats which the VRA most likely wouldn't permit.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

That would be impossible and also breaks the VRA. The best MD Black Dems can hope for is the 2 VRA required black majority seats (1 each in Baltimore and DC suburbs) and 1 majority minority seat in the DC suburbs.

That's basically what already exists.  MD-05 will be won by a black when Hoyer retires.