Gold Standard Gravis

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

[UncleSam]

Lol. CNN, Marist, and Quinnipiac are behind Gravis and Cygnal during a Democratic wave year

[Virginiá]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

[Thatkat04]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

I think the issue with both Gravid and Emerson is that they post complete outliers only to fall in line closer to the election.

[lfromnj]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

Ok Gravis has 2 parts for me
Regular Polls
These are generally meh polls like B- or C+ tier on 538 which I find fine and Ill throw into the pile. They probably got a bit lucky this cycle

Internals: These are absolute garbage and where they should be thrown out(was it the Schrader poll that was +25) Anyway some of those numbers are physically impossible.

[IceSpear]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

Gravis had Republicans winning OR-05 by 23 points. They lost by 13 points. They also had Dems only winning DE-Sen and DE-AL by like 5 points when they won them by 22 and 30 points respectively. That's just off the top of my head. Clearly these earlier polls were not included in Cohn's calculation, which is why it is a fatally flawed metric.

Nor was Cygnal's poll that only had Kaine up 5.

[lfromnj]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

I think the issue with both Gravid and Emerson is that they post complete outliers only to fall in line closer to the election.

No Emerson is generally fine even with margin
its just they HAVE SO MANY ING UNDECIDEDs early.

[Virginiá]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

Gravis had Republicans winning OR-05 by 23 points. They lost by 13 points. They also had Dems only winning DE-Sen and DE-AL by like 5 points when they won them by 22 and 30 points respectively. That's just off the top of my head. Clearly these earlier polls were not included in Cohn's calculation, which is why it is a fatally flawed metric.

But then CNN had Gillum up 12 points too, didn't they?

I don't really focus on this stuff much, so I'm kind of just taking Nate's word for this, but I thought it was worth bringing up. Either way, I do think it would be wrong to only call out Gravis's absurd polls but the absurd polls from other, generally more well-respected outlets alone.

[YE]

My biggest beef with Gravis is that it’s reaults are all over the place.

[IceSpear]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

Gravis had Republicans winning OR-05 by 23 points. They lost by 13 points. They also had Dems only winning DE-Sen and DE-AL by like 5 points when they won them by 22 and 30 points respectively. That's just off the top of my head. Clearly these earlier polls were not included in Cohn's calculation, which is why it is a fatally flawed metric.

But then CNN had Gillum up 12 points too, didn't they?

I don't really focus on this stuff much, so I'm kind of just taking Nate's word for this, but I thought it was worth bringing up. Either way, I do think it would be wrong to only call out Gravis's absurd polls but the absurd polls from other, generally more well-respected outlets alone.

Missing by 12 points isn't really on the same level as missing by 30+ points. There's also the fact that clearly Florida had a systematic polling error this time, whereas it was always blatantly obvious all those races Gravis was way off in were safe D (which other polls corroborated.)

Also, Gravis doesn't exactly have the greatest track record from before this election either. They bombed hard in 2012. I'm not sure what their track record was like in 2014/2016.

I'll give Gravis this though: they (along with PPP) are the only ones that seem to know how to poll Nevada, lol.

[ON Progressive]

In all seriousness, does Gravis even deserve the shame it gets on here anymore? Can a decent case be made for why they do, post-2018?

Gravis had Republicans winning OR-05 by 23 points. They lost by 13 points. They also had Dems only winning DE-Sen and DE-AL by like 5 points when they won them by 22 and 30 points respectively. That's just off the top of my head. Clearly these earlier polls were not included in Cohn's calculation, which is why it is a fatally flawed metric.

But then CNN had Gillum up 12 points too, didn't they?

I don't really focus on this stuff much, so I'm kind of just taking Nate's word for this, but I thought it was worth bringing up. Either way, I do think it would be wrong to only call out Gravis's absurd polls but the absurd polls from other, generally more well-respected outlets alone.

CNN's final poll before the election was Gillum +1 though. I don't know why people are forgetting that poll.

[Virginiá]

ftr I'm definitely not being paid in dollars by Gravis either. Definitely not.

CNN's final poll before the election was Gillum +1 though. I don't know why people are forgetting that poll.

Well, yes. But so was Gravis's