What would Beto’s primary path be?

[Barack Oganja]

Should he put all his cards into Iowa? Would California be in play? Seems likely that he’d target the Sun Belt as part of his overall strategy, how would he do with African-Americans in the South?

[Oryxslayer]

Everyones path in 2020 is incredibly Iowa-centric. With NH and SC as automatic losses to Bernie/Warren and a AA candidate like Booker/Harris/Oprah/?, Iowa is key to early momentum. This probably benefits Youth focused candidates like Beto, but also Klobuchar and other popular Midwesterners.

[Sir Mohamed]

Everyones path in 2020 is incredibly Iowa-centric. With NH and SC as automatic losses to Bernie/Warren and a AA candidate like Booker/Harris/Oprah/?, Iowa is key to early momentum. This probably benefits Youth focused candidates like Beto, but also Klobuchar and other popular Midwesterners.

Agree.

Beto must win IA and NV, before doing well on Super Tuesday with a huge win in TX and a decent showing CA.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Obviously Iowa, plus NH. If the only other big name leftie is Warren then I think NH is more doable then people think. I see Beto picking up a lot of the Bernie-type activist support and pulling away from Warren. If not New Hampshire, then it's gotta be Nevada. Then on Super Tuesday he's gotta not do terrible in California, good in Texas and expand on Sanders in the whiter states like MA and MN.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Basically he wins Iowa, and then everyone just melts away before him amidst all the hype and momentum.

It will be a lot like invading Russia. Basically Beto just has to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure of all the other campaigns will come crashing down before him. That is pretty much how it worked for John Kerry in 2004.

In seriousness, after winning in IA he should have a decent showing in NH, but he doesn't really have to win it assuming either Warren or Bernie is in and is winning it. Then do decently in NV, but he doesn't really have to win that if Harris is winning it, because it is practically her turf right next to CA.

Whoever wins SC (if it is not Beto), is the person with the best chance to stop Beto. That could happen if someone can consolidate African American support - most likely Harris or Booker, but possibly also Biden if he runs. Probably the person with the most obvious path to make it a 2 candidate race is Harris, by winning NV due to it being next to California and then SC.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Everyones path in 2020 is incredibly Iowa-centric. With NH and SC as automatic losses to Bernie/Warren and a AA candidate like Booker/Harris/Oprah/?, Iowa is key to early momentum. This probably benefits Youth focused candidates like Beto, but also Klobuchar and other popular Midwesterners.

Agree.

Beto must win IA and NV, before doing well on Super Tuesday with a huge win in TX and a decent showing CA.

I don't see any reason why Beto should have to actually win NV in order to win the Dem primary.

Sure, he shouldn't get blown out in NV, and should get a decent share of the few delegates. But why does he actually have to win it?

NV is right next to CA, and is demographically similar to CA.

The idea that he would need to win NV to beat Harris is about as absurd as the idea that Harris would need to win NM (right next door to TX and next door to El Paso) to beat Beto.

And it is as absurd as saying that in order to beat Bernie or Warren, you have to win New Hampshire - you can beat them by beating them in other states, not in the states right next door to them.

Sure, if Beto did win NV (following IA) then he would for sure be strongly on course for a win in the overall Dem Primary. But I don't see any particular reason why he needs that.

[lfromnj]

If he has momentum and is still top 4 by Super Tuesday what percent would he get in Texas?
I don't really see Harris getting a huge home state bonus. It could be possible that Texas itself gives him a completely insurmountable lead. He did bad for the senate primary in 2018 but he didn't even have 1/20 the name rec.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Beto will clear 70% in Texas easily. Nobody is going to be able to penetrate the base he built there with his Senate campaign. He’s palatable to Austin liberals, white collar suburbanites, Hispanics, and younger African Americans.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Beto is in Blue.

[RINO Tom]

Beto is in Blue.

Did you have anyone in mind for the other colors?

[lfromnj]

Beto is in Blue.

Did you have anyone in mind for the other colors?

If i had to guess klobuchar/Brown or whoever is the midwest candidate for red
Black candidate aka harris or booker in Yellow
Green is Bernie
Massachussets is warren

[Rookie Yinzer]

Beto is in Blue.

Who are the others?

Glad I'm not the only one that thinks Beto would do really well in the South. Beto will be pulling enough black voters to win GA and NC outright, NOVA mirrors the white collar suburbs he over performed in, He will do well with whites and Hispanics in Florida, TN and AR have the type of overwhelmingly white electorates that will respond favorably to him.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Beto is in Blue.

Did you have anyone in mind for the other colors?

Red is Joe Biden, although Sherrod Brown could also fit the role pretty well. Old white guy #populist type, basically.

Green is Sanders, Yellow is Harris, and MA is Warren.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Win all of the caucus states that Sanders did as well as the ones he came close in (like Iowa and Nevada) utilize the appeal that he seems to have with Hispanic/Latinx voters to run up the margins in the Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois New Mexico, and Texas primaries.

[SCNCmod]

If Beto wins... he will have the Obama/Bernie size following this go around.... but he will not have 1 central opponent (as Hillary was in 2008/2016)- there will be many in the race to split the non-Beto vote.  If he ends up winning... I predict he ends up winning fairly convincingly due to being the only one in a crowded field who gets the groundswell type of support.

[Sir Mohamed]

Everyones path in 2020 is incredibly Iowa-centric. With NH and SC as automatic losses to Bernie/Warren and a AA candidate like Booker/Harris/Oprah/?, Iowa is key to early momentum. This probably benefits Youth focused candidates like Beto, but also Klobuchar and other popular Midwesterners.

Agree.

Beto must win IA and NV, before doing well on Super Tuesday with a huge win in TX and a decent showing CA.

I don't see any reason why Beto should have to actually win NV in order to win the Dem primary.

Sure, he shouldn't get blown out in NV, and should get a decent share of the few delegates. But why does he actually have to win it?

NV is right next to CA, and is demographically similar to CA.

Winning NV would give Beto more comfort going into Super Tuesday. Two wins out of four races is pretty impressive, since I give him little chance in NH and SC with the expected field of candidates. Appeal among hispancis should help Beto in the Silver State.

NV is to the right of CA as a whole, but even Sanders did better in NV than he did here in CA.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Beto is in Blue.

Did you have anyone in mind for the other colors?

Red is Joe Biden, although Sherrod Brown could also fit the role pretty well. Old white guy #populist type, basically.

Green is Sanders, Yellow is Harris, and MA is Warren.

Wow, wait a minute. I think Biden will do better in states like Alabama and Arkansas than in "those red states", and Beto is definitely not going to win those states unless Biden drops out (and the AA candidate too), and Beto end up being the frontrunner, but i don't know when all the primaries are, and it's hard to take that in account, and create a map. Harris will win California and not Beto. (it's probably early in the primary season).

About Beto. I think he has a chance in NH depending on what the field might look like. It might also be critical to end second or third in those states, but Nevada seems like Beto's best early state (demographics similar to Texas, and Beto has lot of hispanic support, and Nevada has some progressives and rural areas too), but Las Vegas metropolitian area will probably go for Biden or Harris (if the latter one is at least the front runner among casual / modern liberals). Nevada isn't also far away from California.

Iowa might indeed be key to Beto. Iowa -> finishing 2nd in NH -> Nevada -> Winning Texas, and ending at least 2nd in California are critical. Depending on whether Sanders / Warren / different progressive are still in the race, he also might have to win Minnesota, Colorado (he definitely will do very well there), and potentially Vermont and Massachussets, maybe Virginia and maybe Oklahoma (esp. if Biden and Sanders dropped out of the race). I think Beto needs a lot of the progressive vote in order to win

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My scenario:
Red = Kamala Harris
Green = Bernie Sanders
Blue = Beto O'Rourke
Yellow = Richard Ojeda
Grey = Elizabeth Warren

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto will have similar problems with connection with Latinos and Blacks. Minority vote looked large in TX, but Cruz still did good among Latinos. That's why Booker and Harris gets the buzz.

But, he is no Sanders or Dean

[SCNCmod]

Beto will have similar problems with connection with Latinos and Blacks. Minority vote looked large in TX, but Cruz still did good among Latinos. That's why Booker and Harris gets the buzz.

But, he is no Sanders or Dean

Beto will do fine with Latino's. Cruz got so much of the Latino vote because he is Latino (esp the Cuban vote).  I do however think Beto should choose a minority running mate if he wins.

[Mr. Smith]

Iowa, Nevada, a decent showing SC and The South in general, Pennsylvania, and blowouts in The West.

[SCNCmod]

Iowa, Nevada, a decent showing SC and The South in general, Pennsylvania, and blowouts in The West.

This is a pretty good guess imo.  (if he really catches fire... I could see a few NE states warming to him as well.  Apparently he already has quite a big following in Brooklyn.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beto will have similar problems with connection with Latinos and Blacks. Minority vote looked large in TX, but Cruz still did good among Latinos. That's why Booker and Harris gets the buzz.

But, he is no Sanders or Dean

I actually disagree. O'Rourke is from El Paso, Texas. He represented it. He may very well have the best possible appeal to Hispanic/Latino voters of the potential Democrats (even the ones that are Hispanic/Latino themselves). But maybe that's just the inkling I get. I can't really be that sure.

[Mr. Morden]

Beto will have similar problems with connection with Latinos and Blacks. Minority vote looked large in TX, but Cruz still did good among Latinos. That's why Booker and Harris gets the buzz.

But, he is no Sanders or Dean

I actually disagree. O'Rourke is from El Paso, Texas. He represented it. He may very well have the best possible appeal to Hispanic/Latino voters of the potential Democrats (even the ones that are Hispanic/Latino themselves). But maybe that's just the inkling I get. I can't really be that sure.

Well, here’s O’Rourke’s national primary support among the racial subsamples according to the Morning Consult poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306692.0
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-0957-def8-a56f-89d7a3f30000

whites: 8%
blacks: 7%
Hispanics: 15%
other race: 15%

So at least in the one national Democratic primary poll with crosstabs that we have for O’Rourke so far, he does better with Hispanics than he does with other racial groups.  It’s so early though that that may mean very little though.

[Senator-elect Spark]

IA + NV + TX + AZ + CA