What areas will Trump gain in 2020?
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  What areas will Trump gain in 2020?
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Author Topic: What areas will Trump gain in 2020?  (Read 1247 times)
H. Ross Peron
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« on: November 19, 2018, 09:52:13 PM »

In what areas of the country will Trump increase his support in compared to 2020? I'm not referring to simply absolute support due to weaker third party candidates but margin of lead as well.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2018, 10:43:57 PM »

He's not gonna gain in blue areas or areas where Gary Johnson cost Hillary the election. The only areas he can improve on is suring up his support in OH, AZ, FL and IA, states that won't put him back into the Oval office, while losing other swing states
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2018, 10:47:15 PM »

Rural areas that aren’t already 85%+ Republican. These areas trended R in 2014, 2016, and 2018. I don’t expect anything less of them in 2020. I doubt he gains much in Gary Johnson areas. In fact he probably does even worse in college educated areas and suburbs.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2018, 10:53:11 PM »

Rural areas that aren’t already 85%+ Republican. These areas trended R in 2014, 2016, and 2018. I don’t expect anything less of them in 2020. I doubt he gains much in Gary Johnson areas. In fact he probably does even worse in college educated areas and suburbs.

Upper Midwest rural areas didn't trend GOP from 2016 to 2018 and in some cases (such as Iowa) swung towards Dems b a decent margin.
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2018, 12:48:07 AM »

Rural areas that aren’t already 85%+ Republican. These areas trended R in 2014, 2016, and 2018. I don’t expect anything less of them in 2020. I doubt he gains much in Gary Johnson areas. In fact he probably does even worse in college educated areas and suburbs.

Upper Midwest rural areas didn't trend GOP from 2016 to 2018 and in some cases (such as Iowa) swung towards Dems b a decent margin.
Just put on ignore
Though you both live in the same county so I can’t  confirm you won’t meet him sorry
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2018, 11:04:06 AM »

Rural areas that aren’t already 85%+ Republican. These areas trended R in 2014, 2016, and 2018. I don’t expect anything less of them in 2020. I doubt he gains much in Gary Johnson areas. In fact he probably does even worse in college educated areas and suburbs.

Upper Midwest rural areas didn't trend GOP from 2016 to 2018 and in some cases (such as Iowa) swung towards Dems b a decent margin.
He's a hack who thinks anyone who lives in a rural area is a racist, what do you expect?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2018, 01:18:08 PM »

Rural areas that aren’t already 85%+ Republican. These areas trended R in 2014, 2016, and 2018. I don’t expect anything less of them in 2020. I doubt he gains much in Gary Johnson areas. In fact he probably does even worse in college educated areas and suburbs.

Upper Midwest rural areas didn't trend GOP from 2016 to 2018 and in some cases (such as Iowa) swung towards Dems b a decent margin.
He's a hack who thinks anyone who lives in a rural area is a racist, what do you expect?

DISGUSTING ad hominem attack. You are now on my ignore list.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 07:41:36 PM »

The only places I can think of are in exurbs and wealthier, whiter than average suburbs. I can definitely see the WOW counties swinging back to him, for instance. Really this is Trump's obstacle for re-election. His inability to expand his support beyond his base, so far, is a massive disadvantage and he would have to rely on turning every voter out from 2016 as possible with little room for error, while simultaneously hoping for decreased turnout or third party defections from the Democratic side. That can definitely happen though.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2018, 07:46:08 PM »

All of them
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2018, 07:47:13 PM »


Hahahahaha! No.
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SN2903
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2018, 09:04:38 PM »

Suburban areas turned off by how left wing the democrats are.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2018, 09:05:14 PM »

Suburban areas turned off by how left wing the democrats are.
Yea just like 2018.
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2018, 09:06:05 PM »

Suburban areas turned off by how left wing the democrats are.
Were you asleep during the midterms? Did you realize that progressives like Beto and Abrams did better then Hillary in the suburbs???
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Grassroots
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2018, 09:07:54 PM »

Utah as well as a slight swing in suburbs.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2018, 09:52:25 PM »

He's not gonna gain in blue areas or areas where Gary Johnson cost Hillary the election. The only areas he can improve on is suring up his support in OH, AZ, FL and IA, states that won't put him back into the Oval office, while losing other swing states

Trump is not going to improve in AZ.

60% of the state population is clustered in and around Phoenix and another 15% in and around Tucson.

...and we already know he's going to do worse in the suburb.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2018, 10:22:38 PM »

The only places I can think of are in exurbs and wealthier, whiter than average suburbs. I can definitely see the WOW counties swinging back to him, for instance. Really this is Trump's obstacle for re-election. His inability to expand his support beyond his base, so far, is a massive disadvantage and he would have to rely on turning every voter out from 2016 as possible with little room for error, while simultaneously hoping for decreased turnout or third party defections from the Democratic side. That can definitely happen though.

Considering the WOW counties swung away from Walker and Vukmir, I doubt they're going to swing back for Trump.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2018, 12:05:45 AM »

Utah.
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Koorca Ton
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2018, 12:12:09 AM »

Utah, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and possibly West Virginia too if Ojeda doesn't make some sort of prominent influence.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2018, 12:26:44 AM »

Utah, lol. Other than that, there probably won't be any specific pattern, or at least it'll depend on who the Democratic candidate is.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2018, 11:45:27 AM »

Utah, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and possibly West Virginia too if Ojeda doesn't make some sort of prominent influence.

Basically this. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Trump broke 70% in West Virginia in 2020.
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Woody
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« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2018, 11:55:18 AM »

His voteshare will probably increase in New England, California (just look at how much Cox overperformed) and most noticeably in Illinois.
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RoyCooper2020
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« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2018, 01:14:17 PM »

Maybe Minnesota.

He probably will not gain any more states in 2020, and it will be hard for him to hold on to states that he won in 2016.
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Storr
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« Reply #22 on: November 23, 2018, 01:19:16 PM »

Maybe Minnesota.

He probably will not gain any more states in 2020, and it will be hard for him to hold on to states that he won in 2016.

My views on this are similar to yours. Several of his wins in 2016 were stretches (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular). They seem similar Obama winning Indiana and almost winning Montana in 2008. I love your name, btw.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2018, 01:23:27 PM »

Suburban areas turned off by how left wing the democrats are.

Because all Democrats run like stealth conservatives this year.
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YE
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« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2018, 01:25:36 PM »

Suburban areas turned off by how left wing the democrats are.

What if I told you the policies Democrats push for our quite popular with voters? Go look at polls sometimes.
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