If Manchin Ran For Governor In 2020 Against Justice, Would He Win?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He has expressed interest in returning to the governorship, doubt it happens, but if it does, could he take down Justice in 2020? I would say yes. Weaker opponent, more local and less partisan race, the national gop won’t put nearly as much effort in to stop him as they did this race for the senate seat, etc. So I could see him taking Justice down. Thought?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nope, you just can’t serve more than two terms back to back. But you can come back later and run. In fact he was considering it in 2016.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here's another reason I think the GOP would pretty much just let him take it, they would easily pickup another senate seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083713470179262464

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think he is going to let his ego get in the way and actually do it

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/03/19/manchin-vs-justice/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hearing from a friend that Manchin is in and going to announce sometime around fourth of july.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Most likely yes, but it is dicey. And whoever is appointed would lose the seat two years early, so that sucks hard.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Under current WV law, that is what would happen.  However, the WV legislature will almost surely pass a no gubernatorial appointee, special election in 90 days law for US Senate vacancies if Manchin runs for governor.

Which is why it gets dicey. I would have to vote for Justice just to keep Manchin in the senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he runs for governor and loses, would he still resign the Senate out of sheer frustration/fatigue?

Idk but if I had to guess, yes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he hates being in the Senate that much, why didn't he just stick two fingers up at Schumer and retire in 2018 anyway? Seems like a lot of trouble to go to being reelected in such a hostile state and then resigning out of annoyance two years later.

I have heard he can be a very impulsive person and switches his mind about running like every few days or even hours

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Under current WV law, that is what would happen.  However, the WV legislature will almost surely pass a no gubernatorial appointee, special election in 90 days law for US Senate vacancies if Manchin runs for governor.

Which is why it gets dicey. I would have to vote for Justice just to keep Manchin in the senate.

On the other hand, if Manchin does still get to make the senate appointment, it's arguably a better scenario for Dems in a situation where the WH and Senate flipped in 2020, because a random Dem knowing they have no chance in 2022 would likely vote the party line on all major legislation in exchange for a future position e.g. in the Dem president's cabinet.  Whereas Manchin has carefully built a quasi-Independent brand and his vote would be far from assured on anything controversial.  Given it's basically impossible for Dems to finish with more than 52 seats after 2020 and a 50/50 VP tiebreaker being by far the most likely scenario for Dem control, this is very relevant. 

If Republicans picked up the Senate in 2022, this Dem could be still be confirmed to their position the last week of December in the lame duck with minimal impact on Senate proceedings even if control technically flips.

Good point, but the thing is if Manchin got to pick his replacement it would not be Ojeda or some liberal, he’d pick Tomblin or someone like him, and they would vote the same as Manchin, just two fewer years.