LOL TIER COOK POLITICAL Senate ratings

[lfromnj]

I’m not seeing any serious path to victory for Doug Jones.

1. He ran against a uniquely awful candidate. Roy Moore was an alleged pedo who previously barely won by 4 points in his last race in 2012 against a Democrat with Obama on the ballot.
2. Jones won in a special election off year race where turnout differentials are crucial. 2020 will be presidential turnout.
3. Jones won only 8-9% of Republicans per exit polls and the generational gap in Alabama is extremely small compared to most states in the US. Why would these people showing up in presidential turnout levels be good for Jones?
4. McCain even when he was losing by 7-8 nationally still won this state by 21-22 points. That same year we saw Sessions win re-election by 27 points. Trump won the state by 26 points. How in the Hell is Jones suppose to outrun this massive of a margin? Where are all these Trump-Jones voters gonna show up in an extremely inelastic deep southern state with a high white population and a very high evangelical (80% Roy Moore bloc) population?
5. We saw states that are much friendlier for Dems in terms of their PVI and elasticity throw out a ton of Democratic incumbents (Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, and apparently Florida) in a D+7 year with midterm turnout. How is Alabama suppose to even come remotely close to bucking this trend with presidential turnout?

It’s likely R at best for Senator Doug Jones. His best chance is to pray the economy collapses and his opponent is Roy Moore again.

yeah and id like Jennifer to explain the scenario where both Doug Jones and Gardner win due to muh incumbency. I can see Gardner winning so Doug Jones has to go to Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a preliminary map until candidates are known, we all know Cook will put ME, CO and AL as possible pick ups

[Former President tack50]

My ratings as of now (probably junk I guess):

Safe: 90%
Likely: 50%
Lean: 30%

[Xing]

Wow, Cook's ratings have always been bad, but he's definitely gone off the deep end.

-Colorado is Lean R and Alabama is Safe D because muh incumbency, lol
-Iowa is SAFE R!?
-North Carolina is LIKELY R!? As likely to flip as Kentucky!?

It's almost as if the pundits are just trolling at this point.

[Atlas Force]

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[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I can't seriously believe the stupidity in these ratings. What is this woman thinking? Gardner and Jones are doomed and NC is not likely R, among other catastrophes

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I don't get why they have ME closer than most of the other states that are in play? People on here will say Susan Collins is in huge danger (the forum did it prior to 2014 as well if you look back when she didn't even have the Kavanaugh thing ) but it seems to me Maine is not fond of voting out statewide incumbents, no?

[IceSpear]

I see they learned nothing from their garbage 2018 ratings. In fact, these ones are even worse!

[IceSpear]

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[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think:

R gain: AL

D gain: ME, NC, AZ, CO

[Xing]

Clearly the lesson from this year, in which 5 incumbent Senators lost, and 3 more came dangerously close to losing, is that #IncumbencyMatters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't get why they have ME closer than most of the other states that are in play? People on here will say Susan Collins is in huge danger (the forum did it prior to 2014 as well if you look back when she didn't even have the Kavanaugh thing ) but it seems to me Maine is not fond of voting out statewide incumbents, no?

Collins ran in 2008 and 2014 when Obama was on the ballot and supported Obamacare. She is running on the same ticket as Trump, and Trump has vowed to repeal Obamacare.

[Calthrina950]

Clearly the lesson from this year, in which 5 incumbent Senators lost, and 3 more came dangerously close to losing, is that #IncumbencyMatters

Incumbency doesn't matter. This election has convinced me that "fundamentals" are a more important factor, than anything else. The reason why >90% of incumbents get reelected is because they generally reflect the state or district in which they are running. It comes down to that.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Clearly the lesson from this year, in which 5 incumbent Senators lost, and 3 more came dangerously close to losing, is that #IncumbencyMatters

Incumbency doesn't matter. This election has convinced me that "fundamentals" are a more important factor, than anything else. The reason why >90% of incumbents get reelected is because they generally reflect the state or district in which they are running. It comes down to that.

A very high-IQ man, I can see.

[Calthrina950]

Clearly the lesson from this year, in which 5 incumbent Senators lost, and 3 more came dangerously close to losing, is that #IncumbencyMatters

Incumbency doesn't matter. This election has convinced me that "fundamentals" are a more important factor, than anything else. The reason why >90% of incumbents get reelected is because they generally reflect the state or district in which they are running. It comes down to that.

A very high-IQ man, I can see.

Back to the insults, I see. No matter. My observation is still valid.

[Comrade Funk]

That's embarrassing.

[Skye]

Cook is always very... cautious when it comes to incumbents, especially in their initial ratings. That said, Peters and Ernst probably aren't safe, and Collins shouldn't be just at Lean R unless proven otherwise.

[lfromnj]

I think:

R gain: AL

D gain: ME, NC, AZ, CO

Even solid isn't enough of a hack to think that Jones will win.

[Orser67]

Top 7 worst ratings:

1)AL at Lean D
2)CO at Lean R
3)NH at Solid D
4)IA at Solid R
5)MI at Solid D
6)TX at Solid R
7)MT at Solid R

I will give Duffy some credit for putting ME at Lean R. That's bold for these rankings.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, they really outdid themselves again, since these are even worse than their initial 2018 Senate ratings, which is saying a lot. Their worst ratings:

1) MT (once again). Even if Bullock (who would arguably make the race Tilt/Lean D) somehow doesn’t run, there is really no way Daines is safe.
2) CO/AL. Gardner and Jones shouldn’t be underestimated, but the idea that their seats are Lean R and D, respectively, just because they’re incumbents is ridiculous. Jones has never even won a regular election, and Gardner isn’t exactly the most popular incumbent.
3) MI Solid D? Cute, but yeah.. no.
4) IA/KY. I agree with Duffy that Ernst is a strong retail politician who’s heavily favored to win reelection, but she’s definitely not less vulnerable than McConnell.
5) NC isn’t Likely R, especially with an incumbent like Tillis.

At least they put NH and VA at Safe D, though.

[cvparty]

did anyone actually read the article bc she clearly says

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meaning that the ratings simply reflect the current state and she doesn't expect most of these races to stay where they are right now without any announced challengers

[adrac]

did anyone actually read the article bc she clearly says

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meaning that the ratings simply reflect the current state and she doesn't expect most of these races to stay where they are right now without any announced challengers

She can make ratings according to those rules if she wants, but it's probabilistic malfeasance.

[Gustaf]

did anyone actually read the article bc she clearly says

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meaning that the ratings simply reflect the current state and she doesn't expect most of these races to stay where they are right now without any announced challengers

Yeah, one can I guess take issue with that rule but clearly the thing is that lean is the worst they'll assign to an incumbent this far out.

That makes the two dumbest ratings a bit more understandable. Even with that caveat this is still bad though.

[Kantakouzenos]

Kentucky is likely R because Mitch McConnell is regularly one of the least popular senators in his state.  As of his last two elections, he hasn't ever won by much. 

[lfromnj]

did anyone actually read the article bc she clearly says

You must be logged in to read this quote.

meaning that the ratings simply reflect the current state and she doesn't expect most of these races to stay where they are right now without any announced challengers

yeah i did and Alabama isn't tossup its Likely R. It doesn't take a first tier challenger
I guess CO is fine enough because a garbage candidate+ ok environment means Gardner can win.