Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Thatkat04]

NBC is wrong.

2008 had D+11% in the House vs. D+8% now.

In 2006, it was also D+8%, so nothing "historical".

Democrats already had the house in 2008 though. NBC means they flipped the house by the largest margin.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This really seems misleading. The % margin is so far a bit higher than 2006, and the seat gain is huge but not really historic. And going by raw votes doesn't really tell us anything either, especially considering Republicans got high turnout too and, well, population growth obviously.

I think they are going by raw vote totals. You are right that it is definitely not a good way to look at the numbers and is not meaningful, but they are reporters, not sensible political analysts, and it makes for a good tweet/story headline.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

This really seems misleading. The % margin is so far a bit higher than 2006, and the seat gain is huge but not really historic. And going by raw votes doesn't really tell us anything either, especially considering Republicans got high turnout too and, well, population growth obviously.

Democrats did better in the popular vote in 2008.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

This really seems misleading. The % margin is so far a bit higher than 2006, and the seat gain is huge but not really historic. And going by raw votes doesn't really tell us anything either, especially considering Republicans got high turnout too and, well, population growth obviously.

For Dems it sorta is. It's the greatest number of gains since Watergate, and you'd have to go all the way back to The Depression to get a higher number.

[Virginiá]

Democrats did better in the popular vote in 2008.

Midterm wave*

For Dems it sorta is. It's the greatest number of gains since Watergate, and you'd have to go all the way back to The Depression to get a higher number.

There was also 1958:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1958

But Democrats had a much higher baseline from 1932 - 1994, so I've found it better to look at their popular vote share instead. For example, in 1964, Democrats "only" picked up 37 seats, yet their popular vote share was 14.7% while LBJ was breaking his own records. The actual seat gains were just lower because Democrats had been cleaning up since 1958.

Democrats also won the House PV by 11.8% in 1982, which even in those years was a blowout. But their seat gains looked less impressive because they already had a fairly large majority. If Democrats in '82 had as many seats then as Democrats did before this election, they'd probably have gained 50-60 seats with that kind of popular vote margin.

8 - 8.5% in the House popular vote or whatever Democrats end up getting is a fantastic result, but it's not historic imo

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067286049020395520

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats did better in the popular vote in 2008.

Midterm wave*

They also did better in 1986.

[Brittain33]

This is one of those stats like box office records being broken because the price of movie tickets continually increases.

[DINGO Joe]

This is one of those stats like box office records being broken because the price of movie tickets continually increases.

Which doesn't tarnish the fact that Ralph Breaks the Internet is the greatest movie of all time.

[2016]

CNN finally calls NM-2 for Torres-Small.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 article on CA-21, including estimates (a couple different ways) of how many votes in the district are outstanding in each county.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/

[Antonio the Sixth]

538 article on CA-21, including estimates (a couple different ways) of how many votes in the district are outstanding in each county.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/

Interesting that the two estimates basically agree on the two Republican counties but give opposite results for the two Democratic ones.

The good news for Cox is that, if the King and Tulare numbers are accurate and those votes break down like the post-election-day votes have in those counties so far, Valadao would only net about 275 votes out of it. In other words, even if there are literally 0 votes left in Kern and Fresno, Cox would still be a modest favorite.

[Tintrlvr]

538 article on CA-21, including estimates (a couple different ways) of how many votes in the district are outstanding in each county.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/

Interesting that the two estimates basically agree on the two Republican counties but give opposite results for the two Democratic ones.

The good news for Cox is that, if the King and Tulare numbers are proven right and those votes break down like the post-election votes have in those counties so far, Valadao would only net about 275 votes out of it. In other words, even if there are literally 0 votes left in Kern and Fresno, Cox would still be a modest favorite.

The first estimate is obviously more accurate as well. It's just the case that the more Latino areas of the district, mainly in Kern, have bigger midterm drop-offs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Honestly more excited and on the edge of my seat for remaining ballots in CA 21 than the MS runoff with Espy and CHS today.

[IceSpear]

Honestly more excited and on the edge of my seat for remaining ballots in CA 21 than the MS runoff with Espy and CHS today.

That's understandable actually. Not only does the former have more suspense than the latter, it's also far more likely to end well for you if you're a Democrat.

[libertpaulian]

One thing's for sure: The GOP got absolutely murdered in the West this cycle.

[Xing]

Honestly more excited and on the edge of my seat for remaining ballots in CA 21 than the MS runoff with Espy and CHS today.

I mean, it doesn't look like there is that much suspense, since the math is incredibly daunting for Valadao, but I agree that it's not nearly as much of a foregone conclusion as MS-SEN.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Where are my Kings numbers at?!

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1067568991575687168

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1067545273533194242

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1067568991575687168

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1067545273533194242

So what does this mean? What's going to happen?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1067568991575687168

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1067545273533194242

Sore losers.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1067568991575687168

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1067545273533194242

So what does this mean? What's going to happen?

Not entirely sure right now.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1067568991575687168

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1067545273533194242

Sore losers.

Hey. Another chance at a pickup. Republicans won in NC-9.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be nice to hear something more tangible than "irregularities". It'd have to be something pretty big to overcome a 2000-vote lead.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I thought Kings was supposed to dump today at 4:30 pm pacific time, what is going on?!