Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I kinda want this to drag out for a bit, let us savor it my friends... and we are coming to dethrone Trump.

[_]

Damn, considering NM-02, AZ-SOS, CA-21, IL-13 (Called by CNN as I recall), holy hell there have been so many "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" scenarios this year.  News bois need to wait for the votes to be all counted

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

But the media and Atlas told me it wasn't a wave.

[MAINEiac4434]

Once this race is called for Cox, we can unsticky this thread.

The end of something special

Hey, we now have an ME-02 recount for some reason!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

But the media and Atlas told me it wasn't a wave.

I mean the house was a wave but the senate was baddish and gubernatorials were disappointing with dems not picking up a single R PVI state besides Kansas and psuedo losing Alaska to cancel that out.

[Lourdes]

A blue wave!

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

But the media and Atlas told me it wasn't a wave.

I mean the house was a wave but the senate was baddish and gubernatorials were disappointing with dems not picking up a single R PVI state besides Kansas and psuedo losing Alaska to cancel that out.

IceSpear was clearly talking about the House.

[justfollowingtheelections]

KERNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

MOTHERF*****R YESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!

[justfollowingtheelections]

So are they going to un-call CA-21 after Cox wins?

They should double down and spend the next two years constructing an elaborate alternate universe where David Valadao is still the Congressman for CA-21.

LOL CNN has uncalled it.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/california/house

[GeorgiaModerate]

Haha:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1067237070777786368

[henster]

CNN is refusing to call NY-22 for some reason even though Tenney was mathematically eliminated last week.

[Bojack Horseman]

Haha:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1067237070777786368

Thank god. This district is so Democratic that it has no business electing a Republican to start with.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CNN is refusing to call NY-22 for some reason even though Tenney was mathematically eliminated last week.

I distinctly remember them calling it on election night at the same time as NY-19, no less.

[lfromnj]

Haha:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1067237070777786368

Thank god. This district is so Democratic that it has no business electing a Republican to start with.

What about Peterson from MN 7?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1067224915445657600

If Valadao is still behind after tomorrow's dump, stick a fork in him.

[Oryxslayer]

Damn, considering NM-02, AZ-SOS, CA-21, IL-13 (Called by CNN as I recall), holy hell there have been so many "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" scenarios this year.  News bois need to wait for the votes to be all counted

I mentioned in the old thread that the abnormal number of bad calls and late elections was a sign that the old order was breaking down, in both partisan and structural ways.

Partisan-ly, it means analyzing counties/precincts that were traditionally blue/red might not be as loyal as they once were. Instead, they Trump/Clinton style coalitions might be the new normal. Structurally, it means more and more states are accepting ballots and counting voters later and later - which is good for democracy since more people are voting.

[Coffein00]

AP finally uncalled it, too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AP finally uncalled it, too.

Lol they uncalled it, but they didn't even bother changing the vote totals on NYTimes.

[Nyvin]

Kings County only has 1,577 ballots left, and 1,040 of those are provisionals.    Kings County won't be enough to bring Valadao back in the lead, he pretty much has to have a major breakthrough in the remaining Fresno ballots to win at this point.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.239144771.1185529446.1541696745-1813463894.1541538118

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

[Tintrlvr]

Kings County only has 1,577 ballots left, and 1,040 of those are provisionals.    Kings County won't be enough to bring Valadao back in the lead, he pretty much has to have a major breakthrough in the remaining Fresno ballots to win at this point.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.239144771.1185529446.1541696745-1813463894.1541538118

There are a fair number of Kern ballots left, too. No more provisionals but still nearly 3,000 ballots (probably around 1,000 of which are in CA-21). Valadao would also need to basically break even in those ballots to have any chance of retaking the lead by the end of counting, deeply unlikely considering how every Kern report has been going for him.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Haha:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1067237070777786368

Thank god. This district is so Democratic that it has no business electing a Republican to start with.

What about Peterson from MN 7?

Don't worry, it won't be electing a Democrat much longer, and it will be eliminated/combined in redistricting anyway.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1067181213838790656

This really seems misleading. The % margin is so far a bit higher than 2006, and the seat gain is huge but not really historic. And going by raw votes doesn't really tell us anything either, especially considering Republicans got high turnout too and, well, population growth obviously.

[Tender Branson]

NBC is wrong.

2008 had D+11% in the House vs. D+8% now.

In 2006, it was also D+8%, so nothing "historical".