Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

[Bidenworth2020]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

[lfromnj]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Love was a black woman, so that might have something to do with her tepid support in a heavily Republican district.
As for Maffei, we are debating about him years now and there is still no definitive answer as to why he lost so badly to Katko.

[Mr.Phips]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Maffei's margin of loss in NY-24 in 2014 is the margin of an incumbent who got indicted two weeks before the election.

[lfromnj]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Maffei's margin of loss in NY-24 in 2014 is the margin of an incumbent who got indicted two weeks before the election.

Wait did he get indicted or are you comparing?
I still don't get how u lose by 20 points if you don't have any major scandals

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Maffei's margin of loss in NY-24 in 2014 is the margin of an incumbent who got indicted two weeks before the election.

Wait did he get indicted or are you comparing?
I still don't get how u lose by 20 points if you don't have any major scandals

That's the point, he was a scandal-free, uncontroversial incumbent sitting in an Obama +17 district, and he got curbstomped by 20. It's a mystery.

[IceSpear]

Maffei also underperformed pretty badly in 2012 too, so it wasn't just political environment or Katko's "candidate quality."

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maffei also underperformed pretty badly in 2012 too, so it wasn't just political environment or Katko's "candidate quality."

Obviously Maffei was never a strong candidate/talented politician. And losing by 5-6 points would raise some eyebrows but be within the realm of possibility.
But losing by 20, only if he was Roy Moore-like radioactive could anyone imagine such an obliteration.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we have final precinct level results for UT-CD '04 within Salt Lake County, and Statewide precinct level results available for Idaho, I thought it might be interesting to explore and potentially compare / contrast two extremely similar but different Metro Areas within the "Mountain West"...

I thought what did Ada County, Idaho Congressional Election results look like, despite the district being split within Two CD's in Idaho.... ?

2016 US-REP RACES:

PUB- 110,777    DEM- 77,689    TOTAL- 193,264

2018 US REP RACES:

PUB-   95,068     DEM 86,193    TOTAL- 187,362

Let's Start with the raw vote in Ada County for US-PRES '16, US REP-16 and US-REP-18.



These numbers are actually quite remarkable, and suggest that either:

1.) A massive chunk of '16 3rd Party PRES voters went DEM in '18

2.) Significant defection of 'PUBs that votes US-REP in '16 vs '18

3.) Increase surge of "New Voters" in one of the largest growing Metro areas in the Mountain West as % of Pop increase....

4.) Could potentially be a mix of all that...

Still, despite the impressive DEM numbers in the '18 US-House Races, obviously the next question would be where did these changes happen?

1.) Boise would be the obvious place to start:



2.) Eagle City next on the list....



3.) Meridian



So although there were some precinct changes between '17 and '18 in Ada County, and plus some of the "split precincts" coded in '16 might have become part of one of the larger municipalities, this should be a reasonably fait and accurate representation of changes that occurred in Ada County between the '16 GE and '18 GE.

Although it's early on in the game, and I haven't run Turnout numbers in Idaho by Place yet, it is increasingly looking like Republicans in Idaho might be starting to run into a "Utah Problem", where the fast growing Metro area around the largest City is starting to shift increasingly into a Democratic leaning Metro area, in a place where the vast majority of the population growth in Idaho is occurring.

[IceSpear]

A lot of these California races have gone from D wins to D blowouts, as well as R blowouts to more modest R victories over the past few weeks. Levin is winning by 12, Rouda is winning by 7, Hill is winning by 8...and they're not even done counting yet!

[Doimper]

Any updates from CA-21?

[Thatkat04]

Any updates from CA-21?

Monday apparently.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone still keeping score.

[ON Progressive]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

[lfromnj]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

Jeppe thinks that Emily Cain was a stronger candidate than Jared Golden.

[ON Progressive]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

Jeppe thinks that Emily Cain was a stronger candidate than Jared Golden.

Jeppe always assumes the woman is the better candidate by default, which is ridiculous. Granted, a lot of Atlas believes the exact opposite, which is just as ridiculous.

[Xing]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

Jeppe thinks that Emily Cain was a stronger candidate than Jared Golden.

Jeppe always assumes the woman is the better candidate by default, which is ridiculous. Granted, a lot of Atlas believes the exact opposite, which is just as ridiculous.

Yeah, it's kind of sad how many here rail against "identity politics", and then prove exactly why racism and sexism need to addressed.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Still on the floor laughing that Young Kim attended freshman orientation.

[Oryxslayer]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

TBH there was a quality gap and its effects are obvious: despite CA39 being both open and the most Clinton of the OC CDs (not including 49), it has the smallest Dem margin of victory. It's just that partisanship is a hell of a drug.

[lfromnj]

Still on the floor laughing that Young Kim attended freshman orientation.

plenty of losers attend it
GOJ and mcmurray come to mind. Its not that funny.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

TBH there was a quality gap and its effects are obvious: despite CA39 being both open and the most Clinton of the OC CDs (not including 49), it has the smallest Dem margin of victory. It's just that partisanship is a hell of a drug.

Even if Cisneros wasn't that great of a candidate, that doesn't explain the insane hype surrounding Kim. Neither her electoral, history, nor the campaign she ran warranted the predictions that she would easily dispatch her opponent in an open Clinton district.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

TBH there was a quality gap and its effects are obvious: despite CA39 being both open and the most Clinton of the OC CDs (not including 49), it has the smallest Dem margin of victory. It's just that partisanship is a hell of a drug.

Even if Cisneros wasn't that great of a candidate, that doesn't explain the insane hype surrounding Kim. Neither her electoral, history, nor the campaign she ran warranted the predictions that she would easily dispatch her opponent in an open Clinton district.

She was pretty much the only new Republican candidate in a competitive district who was not a white male, so she was bound to be hyped on those grounds regardless of any actual merit (or lack thereof). Similar to unbeatable titan John James on the Senate side.

[DrScholl]

Kim was hyped because Republicans (and some others) thought that her being Asian-American would allow her to automatically over perform with the demographic by enough to win big. Oddly enough Republicans rail against identity politics yet were relying on it to retain CA-39 for them.

[Brittain33]

Given that Kim *really* avoided the press, we can't blame her that bottom feeders like Charlie Kirk tried to make her into a "not all Republicans are old white men" poster girl.