Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Badger]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

In fairness, outside only a couple notorious hacks, only valadao and young Kim were seriously considered Titans especially the former.

[Gustaf]

I guess if he ends up losing his titan status will have been invaladaoated.

[Badger]

I guess if he ends up losing his titan status will have been invaladaoated.

Ah, I see what you did there.

[Gustaf]

I guess if he ends up losing his titan status will have been invaladaoated.

Ah, I see what you did there.

I'll see myself out

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

No.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

No.

why?

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

No.

why?

I'm not sure how many of those 72K ballots are actually in CA-50, but either way, he's not winning them by enough. He might get the margin close to 2%, but that's about as good as I think it can get for him.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

No.

why?

I'm not sure how many of those 72K ballots are actually in CA-50, but either way, he's not winning them by enough. He might get the margin close to 2%, but that's about as good as I think it can get for him.

Maybe between the two counties there are 18000 votes still to be counted.  to make up a 9000 vote deficit he'd have to win 75% of the vote.  That's pretty unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Rep. Valadao's (R) lead in CA-21 has gone down to 440 votes as of yesterday ...

[Pericles]

Meanwhile, Rep. Valadao's (R) lead in CA-21 has gone down to 440 votes as of yesterday ...

Looking forward to watching this finish, this is the midterm that keeps on giving.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kern should put Cox over the top in CA-21 as long as the #s of ballots left which were reported are not wrong.

[NOVA Green]

When the first results came in it was clear that Valadao was running far behind his previous wins and that should have at least given some caution in calling the race right away. And what really slipped under the radar is that the NRCC had made a buy in Bakersfield in the last week before the election which was clearly for Valadao's benefit.

What is really interesting is that nobody on Atlas has been talking about the influence of the Spanish Language radio station in the Central Valley of California in Cesar Chavez's own community:

La Campesina 92.5 FM

https://onlineradiobox.com/us/kmyx/

http://campesina.net/who-we-arequien-somos/history-of-radio/

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/09/hispanic-latino-immigrants-resist-trump-radio-campesina-219737

Without seeing precinct level results, obviously this might well mean nothing....

These days most of the Mexican-American population of the Central Valley are less likely to be farm-workers as opposed to a heavily Central-American population that now works the same fields that Cesar Chavez once organized....

Now the Mexican-American population of Middle-Age are more likely to be foremen and supervisors in the Factories, Fields, and Warehouses of an immense food supply-chain network...

Meanwhile the Millennial Sons and Daughters (or grandchildren) are working low wages jobs in the hospitality and service sector jobs of the I-5 corridor--- pumping gas, food sector, retail, etc, but are 100% Americans by any definition, chatting with their fellow workers and community members and talking up *why we need to Vote **

So, just down the road in Salinas, there was a major Demonstration extensively covered by Media throughout the region less than six months before the election...



What some folks frequently forget, is that the Mexican-American population of the West Coast had some extremely strong Union Background Roots, especially within the agricultural regions of California...

Here is a clip from a giant celebration Radio Campesina hosted just down the road less than a Year ago...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6ZTnlyL8VQ

As I learned from my extensive studies and interactions with people involved in the Independence struggle in Northern Ireland, sometimes resistance speaks in a language that "the English don't understand"....

[Beet]

My Final Thoughts on the Midterms:

1. Yowza! Turnout

It looks like turnout for the midterms will be about 116 million. This puts it far closer to recent presidential elections (122 mil - 139 mil since 2004) than recent midterms (84 mil, 89 mil, and 83 mil since 2006). It also puts this midterm election in a whole nother world compared to usual midterms. Turnout was the highest for a midterm since at least 1966. The Democrats will get 95-100% of Trump's presidential election vote, which is the highest share for an opposition Congressional party in a midterm compared to the incumbent president in the previous election, since at least 1938. Many candidates got more than the presidential candidate of their party. For this reason alone, this midterm stands higher than even earth-shattering ones where more seats changed hands, like the 1994 midterms or the 2010 midterms. On a totally nonpartisan note, this speaks to a resurgence in democracy at a time when autocrats are on the march worldwide. Of course, turnout could always be higher, as most people still didn't vote.

2. It was a Wave

The Senate is a weird creature since there is a six-year delay. For instance, the Democrats only gained one Senate seat in the 1982 midterms in the middle of the "Reagan recession", because the base year was 1976; but gained eight seats in 1986 when Reagan was popular because the base year was 1980, when Democrats were wiped out in the Senate. This year the Democrats were defending an absurd number of seats, so even though they handily won the Senate popular vote, still lost seats.

In the House, however, the Democrats picked up 40 seats, their most since 1974, and won the popular vote by 8%, more than the Republicans won it by in 1994 or 2010, or they themselves did in 2006. They picked up more seats than they did in 2006 and will end up with a hair more seats. The nature of the seats they gained was very different than in 2006. That year, the Democrats won in a lot of Blue Dog areas; this year, they won in a lot of suburban areas that are trending towards them.

3. Republicans can't blame the Economy

It wasn't the Economy, stupid. In 2010, when Republicans gained 63 seats, the unemployment rate was 10%. In 1974, we were in the middle of the oil shock in addition to recovering from Nixon's resignation. Even in 1994, the lingering effects of the 1990-91 recession were still being felt. And in 2006, there was one overriding issue driving everything: the Iraq War, while the taint of Hurricane Katrina's aftermath and various corruption scandals also weakened the Republicans. Not so in 2018. The 2018 elections were a pure referendum on Trumpism. On his person, on his style of politics, and on how that has reflected on his party.

4. Democratic women candidates did really well

In the 2006 wave, a bunch of Democratic women lost in high profile races. This year was really the opposite, and even moreso - so many women won! Of the 29 Republicans knocked off, 15 were by women. The percentage of women in Congress will jump from 19.4% to 23.9%, the same percentage point increase as 1992, the "Year of the Woman". I think the Democrats might finally be overcoming their sexism problem, but the real test will be the presidential primaries. Alas, Republican women aren't doing so well, but there are still more of them than there are black Republicans.

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

[wbrocks67]

It's too bad about CA-50. Wish the DCCC put a little more $$$ there.

[cg41386]

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Disagree on major GOP strength in the EC. Sure, they won FL and the OH Gov, but they need to hold PA/MI/WI. MI/PA were not kind to the GOP, and WI was close, as it often is. As for Iowa, true, Reynolds won, but the GOP lost two congressional seats and were relatively close to losing King’s seat. And Michigan wasn’t close at all, Whitmer won by 8.5%. Of course, we have no clue who the Dem presidential nominee is and that won’t be happening for a while.

Oh, and don’t forget about Arizona. I still think it tilts GOP, but with the right candidate and huge turnout, it could flip.

[lfromnj]

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Disagree on major GOP strength in the EC. Sure, they won FL and the OH Gov, but they need to hold PA/MI/WI. MI/PA were not kind to the GOP, and WI was close, as it often is. As for Iowa, true, Reynolds won, but the GOP lost two congressional seats and were relatively close to losing King’s seat. And Michigan wasn’t close at all, Whitmer won by 8.5%. Of course, we have no clue who the Dem presidential nominee is and that won’t be happening for a while.

Oh, and don’t forget about Arizona. I still think it tilts GOP, but with the right candidate and huge turnout, it could flip.

Democrats only gained 1 seat in Wisconsin assembly. Massive failure and shows the state is trending r. Gerrymandering isn't a full excuse there.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Disagree on major GOP strength in the EC. Sure, they won FL and the OH Gov, but they need to hold PA/MI/WI. MI/PA were not kind to the GOP, and WI was close, as it often is. As for Iowa, true, Reynolds won, but the GOP lost two congressional seats and were relatively close to losing King’s seat. And Michigan wasn’t close at all, Whitmer won by 8.5%. Of course, we have no clue who the Dem presidential nominee is and that won’t be happening for a while.

Oh, and don’t forget about Arizona. I still think it tilts GOP, but with the right candidate and huge turnout, it could flip.

Democrats only gained 1 seat in Wisconsin assembly. Massive failure and shows the state is trending r. Gerrymandering isn't a full excuse there.

LOL, are you crazy?

[Aurelio21]

LOL, are you crazy?

To be clear, the Democrats won on state legislative level with a margin about 7-9 % in PA, MI, WI. If anything it shows how anti-democratic (small and capital D) gerrymandering has become. +8% D in WI Assembly => Supermajority R. The republicans did not even field candaites in D voter sinks.

[Virginiá]

Interestingly enough, in the WI House popular vote, Democrats did much better this cycle than in 2006, even when accounting for the lack of challengers between the two:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Wisconsin,_2006
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Wisconsin,_2018

Of course, the actual number of seats won is not the same.

[libertpaulian]

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Disagree on major GOP strength in the EC. Sure, they won FL and the OH Gov, but they need to hold PA/MI/WI. MI/PA were not kind to the GOP, and WI was close, as it often is. As for Iowa, true, Reynolds won, but the GOP lost two congressional seats and were relatively close to losing King’s seat. And Michigan wasn’t close at all, Whitmer won by 8.5%. Of course, we have no clue who the Dem presidential nominee is and that won’t be happening for a while.

Oh, and don’t forget about Arizona. I still think it tilts GOP, but with the right candidate and huge turnout, it could flip.

Democrats only gained 1 seat in Wisconsin assembly. Massive failure and shows the state is trending r. Gerrymandering isn't a full excuse there.

Um, no.  Gerrymandering is clearly an issue there.  It's not like Wisconsin is an Alabama or a Wyoming.  Dems are clearly still viable there, as evidenced by Evers' win and the victories of the row officers.  It's also on the Dems' "red-to-blue" state list in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Popular vote different in Wisconsin is heavy because majority of dem seats not contested. Even in north Carolina the super majority broke but in Wisconsin it is still there

[Aurelio21]

Popular vote different in Wisconsin is heavy because majority of dem seats not contested. Even in north Carolina the super majority broke but in Wisconsin it is still there

Are you the nephew of the majority leader of the Wisconsin Republicans? This argument is at the same level as "alternative facts"-Conway and "Truth is not truth"-Giuliani.
This argument comes close to victim blaming: These 25 uncontested districts are vote sinks thus "packing" the vote.

There are 300,000 more voters for Democrats than Republicans.

And nice that you mentioned the potentially most corrupt state party with NC Republicans, which openly admitted that their schemes are meant to rigg democracy and turn a minority into a majority.

[lfromnj]

Popular vote different in Wisconsin is heavy because majority of dem seats not contested. Even in north Carolina the super majority broke but in Wisconsin it is still there

Are you the nephew of the majority leader of the Wisconsin Republicans? This argument is at the same level as "alternative facts"-Conway and "Truth is not truth"-Giuliani.
This argument comes close to victim blaming: These 25 uncontested districts are vote sinks thus "packing" the vote.

There are 300,000 more voters for Democrats than Republicans.

And nice that you mentioned the potentially most corrupt state party with NC Republicans, which openly admitted that their schemes are meant to rigg democracy and turn a minority into a majority.

I agree the NC gop is trash and I would never vote for one at the state level the way they are rn. It's clear that wisconsin dems had a massive failure failing to gain any seats unlike the Texas nc and ga dems

[Zaybay]

Popular vote different in Wisconsin is heavy because majority of dem seats not contested. Even in north Carolina the super majority broke but in Wisconsin it is still there

Are you the nephew of the majority leader of the Wisconsin Republicans? This argument is at the same level as "alternative facts"-Conway and "Truth is not truth"-Giuliani.
This argument comes close to victim blaming: These 25 uncontested districts are vote sinks thus "packing" the vote.

There are 300,000 more voters for Democrats than Republicans.

And nice that you mentioned the potentially most corrupt state party with NC Republicans, which openly admitted that their schemes are meant to rigg democracy and turn a minority into a majority.

I agree the NC gop is trash and I would never vote for one at the state level the way they are rn. It's clear that wisconsin dems had a massive failure failing to gain any seats unlike the Texas nc and ga dems

The reason for that is because the R gerrymanders of GA and TX were designed around the Rs holding the suburban areas around Atlanta, and the Major Texas Cities, such as Houston and Dallas. In 2018, these broke, and became dummymanders.

The WI gerrymander is holding strong because there hasnt been any shifts in where the D and R votes are coming from. The WOW region still votes R, and the Madison region still votes D. For the gerry to break, you would need the WIDEMs to win in highly hostile territory, and the trend isnt there for that to occur.

The WI Dems arent losing, they gained all the row offices, including the seemingly invincible AG, and took the Governorship back from Walker, and a SC seat, but unless Ds start winning in highly R territory in the North East or WOW, they arent winning the state legislature. Of Course, a non-partisan map would have given them the trifecta, but thats not the map Ds had to play in for the Election.