Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[lfromnj]

I love how people are literally spelling out how Trump is doomed in 2020 a few days after a waveish election.

[Torrain]

I love how people are literally spelling out how Trump is doomed in 2020 a few days after a waveish election.

Let me clarify. I’m not declaring victory for 2020 preemptively, in fact I think it’ll be an uphill battle for  Dems to win the presidency or either House of Congress in a close environment, given geography, gerrymandering and the inevitably damaging primary.

I’m just stating that pandering and turning out 38% of a country, while actively seeking to rile up the remaining 62% to ‘own them’, is a near-sighted strategy, which risks the kind of suburban revolt we witnessed last week. When both parties turned out at near presidential levels, it’s not hard to picture a similar environment in two years time.

Of course it would be folly to assume that as a prior, 2012 looked very different from 2010, for example, as did 1994 and 1996. But the key difference between those years and now is the pivot. Clinton and Obama pivoted to the centre and towards policies they could run on.
Trump will refuse to accept the lesson and double-down on his immigration race-baiting, and demonisation of the opposition, with little popular policy to show for his time in office.

In short, there are reasons for Trump opponents to be worried about 2020, but a heck of a lot of reasons to be hopeful.

[lfromnj]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

[IceSpear]

Good thing Tim walz district was lost. He voted like he was from Ca 12th in a trump +15 district.

Agreed, he's much better off as governor.

But he actually did have a 20% score, so nowhere near as bad as Valadao.

[lfromnj]

Good thing Tim walz district was lost. He voted like he was from Ca 12th in a trump +15 district.

Agreed, he's much better off as governor.

But he actually did have a 20% score, so nowhere near as bad as Valadao.

Anyway im not the biggest fan of the Trump score. I prefer vote with party to see. Obviously he was still a partisan hack with the GOP who didn't belong in a Clinton +15 district it was 80%.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/JVLast/status/1065332106660913154

Trump actually did help the GOP in this election by getting his base out. I can only imagine how ugly it would've been for the GOP if he didn't have that ability.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

TJ Cox is actually Asian lol.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JVLast/status/1065332106660913154

Trump actually did help the GOP in this election by getting his base out. I can only imagine how ugly it would've been for the GOP if he didn't have that ability.

yeah id say house losses would have been -45 to -55 but I think he made it much harder to take back the house. We saw the late minute shift in Il 12th and the 14th which basically switched. Previously Il 12th early on was thought as of a tilt D seat while Il 14th was barely on the radar. Instead il 14th and Il 12th was lost by 5 points. I wonder which one the GOP will have a harder time getting back with Trump on the ballot in 2020.

[IceSpear]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

He unironically is though. This seat is gone for the GOP once it flips, and unless it somehow becomes a D vs. D race, I don't see how Cox loses, lol. And D vs. D seems unlikely since Republicans still have a sizable base in the district.

[lfromnj]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

He unironically is though. This seat is gone for the GOP once it flips, and unless it somehow becomes a D vs. D race, I don't see how Cox loses, lol. And D vs. D seems unlikely since Republicans still have a sizable base in the district.

I hope he doesn't get screwed by top 2 primary. He deserves the seat after being the only one to try against a supposable unbeatable titan when a bunch of strong hispanic candidates like Salas and Huerta ran away from the UNBEATABLE TITAN VALADAO.

[Comrade Funk]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

[IceSpear]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

[lfromnj]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Can't wait for 2020 when Will Hurd gets moved to Likely R after it starts out as tossup.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Based on past results, Rossi was not eligible for Unbeatable status.

[IceSpear]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Based on past results, Rossi was not eligible for Unbeatable status.

Neither was Young Kim, but that didn't stop Atlas.

[Xing]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Don't forget Unbeatable Titans Brian Fitzpatrick and John Katko, though their days might be numbered as well.

[scutosaurus]

CA-21 Update

David Valadao (R) 54,713 votes - 50.21%
TJ Cox (D) 54,266 votes - 49.79%

And that's still with another Kern update coming on Monday.

It appears that Coronado Polling (Cox +1) may be the new gold standard regarding California races.

[Pericles]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

They were slain by greater titans, duh.

Unbeatable Titan Jacky Rosen/Wacky Jacky
Unbeatable Titan Steve Sisloak
Unbeatable Titan Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Unbeatable Titan TJ Cox
Unbeatable Titan Kim Schrier
Unbeatable Titan Gil Cisneros

These were undoubtedly great titans, as shown by their past results and my ALL-POWERFUL GUT(UTDH beating STRONG CANDIDATE Shelley Berkley, Rossi winning WA-08, Valadao's landslides), but ultimately Jacky Rosen is just such a charismatic and inspiring candidate that any possible opponent is DOA. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Republicans are only up by 4 in CA-50 and by 7 in Devin Nune's district. I want them both to go down so bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1065420762604072961

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ retracts Election Night call of CA-21.

[Tender Branson]

DDHQ retracts Election Night call of CA-21.

Calling potentially close CA races on election day already is pretty foolish, considering CA counts tons of votes for weeks after election day ...

[Tintrlvr]

DDHQ retracts Election Night call of CA-21.

Calling potentially close CA races on election day already is pretty foolish, considering CA counts tons of votes for weeks after election day ...

I think the problem was that the conventional wisdom before election night was that CA-21 did not have the potential to be close.

[DrScholl]

When the first results came in it was clear that Valadao was running far behind his previous wins and that should have at least given some caution in calling the race right away. And what really slipped under the radar is that the NRCC had made a buy in Bakersfield in the last week before the election which was clearly for Valadao's benefit.

[Badger]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

He unironically is though. This seat is gone for the GOP once it flips, and unless it somehow becomes a D vs. D race, I don't see how Cox loses, lol. And D vs. D seems unlikely since Republicans still have a sizable base in the district.

I hope he doesn't get screwed by top 2 primary. He deserves the seat after being the only one to try against a supposable unbeatable titan when a bunch of strong hispanic candidates like Salas and Huerta ran away from the UNBEATABLE TITAN VALADAO.

This X10. Assuming he doesn't turn out to be a twit, of course.