Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[morgieb]

#Dominating

I remember when the pundits assured me this was a pure toss up race. Clearly Rohrabacher's 30% of the vote in the jungle primary was a major sign of strength.

Still waiting for the votes from Moscow to come in.

[smoltchanov]

#Dominating

I remember when the pundits assured me this was a pure toss up race. Clearly Rohrabacher's 30% of the vote in the jungle primary was a major sign of strength.

Still waiting for the votes from Moscow to come in.

As Moscow citizen can assure you, that we have much more important business on our hands..

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1063482594938028032

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1063799498063953920

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1063799498063953920

It doesn't sound like they weight for one of a couple things-

That CA (the largest state) was D vs. D
That the states not holding senate elections this year were disproportionately red states

[Thatkat04]

I think Nate Silver and Harry Enten read Sean T.'s article about how 2018 wasn't a wave election.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

lol:

I love the emoji for Crenshaw.

Someone has to provide the diversity for the GOP.

Kinda feel bad for laughing, but damn that’s hilarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

#Dominating

I remember when the pundits assured me this was a pure toss up race. Clearly Rohrabacher's 30% of the vote in the jungle primary was a major sign of strength.

There seems to be a race between Rouda and Hill for who is the second-biggest pickup after Levin. I hope Katie wins, but either way those are really strong numbers.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A small # of additional votes from Kings County in CA-21:



This one is closer to the Hillary numbers, with Valadao over-performing them only very slightly.

We have not gotten any updates from Kern in a long time (the most Dem part of CA-21), so when they do report we might get a big dump. If the next Kern dump is big, Cox needs it to be good, and for it to either put him outright in the lead or at least close to it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

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incorrect



R+12

But even if you do that, the other district that does contain SLC will presumably go north into Davis County and will end up about R+5 or so. That will be the case unless SLC is split into even more pieces, which any nonpartisan map wouldn't really do...

[Bidenworth2020]

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

But even if you do that, the other district that does contain SLC will presumably go north into Davis County and will end up about R+5 or so. That will be the case unless SLC is split into even more pieces, which any nonpartisan map wouldn't really do...
[/quote]
nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

[2016]

I disagree a whole lot what Nate Silver wrote on his Twitter about the Senate.

From a historial Perspective what Republicans have done in the Senate since Obama took Office in 2009 is nothing short of SPECTACULAR

2010: They knocked off two Incumbents in Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold
2014: They beat Incumbents in Arkansas (Pryor), Louisiana (Landrieu), Alaska (Begich), Colorado (M. Udall), North Carolina (Hagan)
2018: They defeated Incumbents in Indiana (Donnelly), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Missouri (McCaskill) and Florida (Nelson)

Defeating Incumbents is very hard thing to do.

[Badger]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

I'm salivating at that thought.

[Badger]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

Reagan’s library will also be represented by a Democrat

[Person Man]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

Reagan’s library will also be represented by a Democrat

Someone is rolling in their grave...

[Bidenworth2020]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

I was under the impression that this was a very loose redistricting bill, and just set up loose rules

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

I was under the impression that this was a very loose redistricting bill, and just set up loose rules

https://ballotpedia.org/Utah_Proposition_4,_Independent_Redistricting_Commission_Initiative_(2018)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would think this should mean that Salt Lake City is not split and there should be 1 district within Salt Lake County. It should make it hard to have a SLC + rural district because that would not be particularly compact, would not allow for ease of transport (you either have to cross mountains or the Great Salt Lake), and it wouldn't follow natural and geographic boundaries/barriers. The only way to really follow natural boundaries from Salt Lake City is either to north into Davis County or South into the rest of Salt Lake County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nicholaskitchel/status/1063862658628272129

[aaroncd107]

A question I’ve been thinking of: would TJ Cox have won if he were Hispanic? I think the answer is almost certainly yes if you look at the legislative results. Hispanic Democratic state Senate challenger Melissa Hurtado is on track to beat Anglo incumbent R Senator Andy Vidak in the overlapping district by 10%. She wasn’t that well funded comparatively or anything special like that to explain the divergence.

TJ’s not out yet, and I think he might eek it. It couldn’t have hurt him, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are we getting any LA dumps today?

And when will the NY-22 recount end?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/nicholaskitchel/status/1063862658628272129

Good riddance to them!

[Brittain33]

This pic is getting heavily fact-checked on Twitter.... may be too good to be true.

https://twitter.com/nicholaskitchel/status/1063862658628272129

Good riddance to them!

[Bidenworth2020]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

I was under the impression that this was a very loose redistricting bill, and just set up loose rules

https://ballotpedia.org/Utah_Proposition_4,_Independent_Redistricting_Commission_Initiative_(2018)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would think this should mean that Salt Lake City is not split and there should be 1 district within Salt Lake County. It should make it hard to have a SLC + rural district because that would not be particularly compact, would not allow for ease of transport (you either have to cross mountains or the Great Salt Lake), and it wouldn't follow natural and geographic boundaries/barriers. The only way to really follow natural boundaries from Salt Lake City is either to north into Davis County or South into the rest of Salt Lake County.

are you sure they can't just pull a Florida... I am sure courts would side them?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are we getting any LA dumps today?

And when will the NY-22 recount end?