Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[NOVA Green]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

That's a nice rabbit you pulled out of your hat.... Did you use PRES '16 or US-REP numbers to pull that together (Not that it would necessarily make a huge difference). Props....

[Mr.Phips]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

Well, if the Provisionals in Utah County break the same way like it's breaking at this moment Love is going to pull this out

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1063592097129750528

Only a small part of Utah county is in UT-04.  Most is in UT-03.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cox might actually win this...

[Torrain]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

[Oryxslayer]

Cox might actually win this...

If he does, we can finally definitively answer the question of Diftwood, Cox is clearly a subpar candidate and wouldn't have won if not for the environment. I suspect he gets top-two'ed by Salas in 2020 if he somehow wins.

[Skill and Chance]

Cox might actually win this...

If he does, we can finally definitively answer the question of Diftwood, Cox is clearly a subpar candidate and wouldn't have won if not for the environment. I suspect he gets top-two'ed by Salas in 2020 if he somehow wins.

I don't think it would be possible to shut out an incumbent absent a Duncan Hunter ethics situation or worse?

[Oryxslayer]

Cox might actually win this...

If he does, we can finally definitively answer the question of Diftwood, Cox is clearly a subpar candidate and wouldn't have won if not for the environment. I suspect he gets top-two'ed by Salas in 2020 if he somehow wins.

I don't think it would be possible to shut out an incumbent absent a Duncan Hunter ethics situation or worse?

As you can see from pretty much every SW primary, Hispanics vote for the primary candidate with a Hispanic last name, even if that candidate gets little airtime. So Salas gets a lot of Hispanic Dems, and hypothetical Republican nominee gets White Pubs. Cox would get what White Dems there are, plus some Hispanics.

[NOVA Green]

Love leads by only 400 with 18 SL precincts out to only 3 in Utah? Will probably be close then, right?

It depends on which SL precincts (and do we really know that it is precincts? I would think if it were provisionals and maybe a few late mail ballots they would gather them together from all over, not keep them separated by precinct this late).

NOVA Green did say earlier that a good chunk of the precincts left were from South Jordan, which is one of the more GOP parts of the district in Salt Lake County. If so then what is left probably will go to Love, unfortunately.

IIRC: I don't believe I said anything regarding precincts out, but rather was noting that South Jordan had a significantly lower turnout rate, than one might expect for such a heavily Republican Community with those Social-Demographics....

Actually, I haven't seen any evidence that Salt Lake County is Counting by precinct, but has at been spreading them out throughout all precincts in the County at least since 11/13 when I first started pulling the precinct file for daily updates.

So this is more where I was going with the Statement regarding outstanding votes....   (Turnout basically means the Vote totals posted by the County by COB on those dates / Total RV).

So it looks like the votes are winding down, unless Salt Lake County Election Workers were told to reduce OT and given the option to leave a bit early on Friday, and wait to roll through a larger bucket of ballots next week...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Decision Desk called it for Cisneros, but I'm hoping AP projects tonight.

[Politician]

Decision Desk called it for Cisneros, but I'm hoping AP projects tonight.

Wait, candidate quality didn't matter in a D-trending Clinton +9 open seat? Shocker!

[Bidenworth2020]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

That's a nice rabbit you pulled out of your hat.... Did you use PRES '16 or US-REP numbers to pull that together (Not that it would necessarily make a huge difference). Props....

McCain won it 55-41 so it would be solid R, though McAdams would probably flip this year if this was the district. I assume Trump narrowly won it, by around 4-5

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm actually surprised that my prediction of the Democrats gaining at least 38 seats was right.

[Mr.Phips]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

That's a nice rabbit you pulled out of your hat.... Did you use PRES '16 or US-REP numbers to pull that together (Not that it would necessarily make a huge difference). Props....

McCain won it 55-41 so it would be solid R, though McAdams would probably flip this year if this was the district. I assume Trump narrowly won it, by around 4-5

Didn't McCain win the current district by about that margin?

[2016]

My take on the remaining Races looking at AP/NYTimes Map:

Rob Woodall (GA-7), Will Hurd (TX 23), Mia Love (UT-4) will hang on bringing the Republican Total to 201.

Democrats will get Gil Cisneros (CA-39) and Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)

Not sure what will happen with Chris Collins (NY-27)

So, it could be 233-202 or 234-201.

[wesmoorenerd]

My take on the remaining Races looking at AP/NYTimes Map:

Rob Woodall (GA-7), Will Hurd (TX 23), Mia Love (UT-4) will hang on bringing the Republican Total to 201.

Democrats will get Gil Cisneros (CA-39) and Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)

Not sure what will happen with Chris Collins (NY-27)

So, it could be 233-202 or 234-201.

Agreed. I think Collins is staying, as well. Also still an outside chance of a TJ Cox victory lol

[lfromnj]

Republicans stole UT-4

Democrats stole AR 2nd from themselves.

[Nyvin]

Republicans stole UT-4

Votes are just coming out of nowhere now!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Coffman gets it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/11/15/18095829/mike-coffman-midterms-2020-trump-house

[lfromnj]

Coffman gets it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/11/15/18095829/mike-coffman-midterms-2020-trump-house

Coffman was as doomed as comstock
Why tf would a clinton +9 district that is trending democrat with an educated and high turnout population vote for Coffman?

[Skill and Chance]

Of the six victorious Democratic House challengers in California, three of them are already outperforming Clinton's winning margin while two more (Porter and Hill) look likely to do so as well once all the votes are counted. As it stands:

CA-10: Harder +3. (Clinton +2)
CA-25: Hill +6. (Clinton +7)
CA-39: Cisneros +1. (Clinton +9)
CA-45: Porter +3. (Clinton +4)
CA-48: Rouda +6 (Clinton +2)
CA-49: Levin +11. (Clinton +7)

Rouda and Levin are obviously the biggest overperformers. And Cisneros is clearly the weakest link, but I doubt he'll have trouble going forward as the area continues its bluening.

It's a good thing for Cisneros that he has the district with the biggest Clinton margin.  CA-48 might need a bad opponent asterisk though.

[ON Progressive]

Of the six victorious Democratic House challengers in California, three of them are already outperforming Clinton's winning margin while two more (Porter and Hill) look likely to do so as well once all the votes are counted. As it stands:

CA-10: Harder +3. (Clinton +2)
CA-25: Hill +6. (Clinton +7)
CA-39: Cisneros +1. (Clinton +9)
CA-45: Porter +3. (Clinton +4)
CA-48: Rouda +6 (Clinton +2)
CA-49: Levin +11. (Clinton +7)

Rouda and Levin are obviously the biggest overperformers. And Cisneros is clearly the weakest link, but I doubt he'll have trouble going forward as the area continues its bluening.

I remember being told by Tea Party Hater and socaldem that Dems were doomed in these House races because Republicans led in the partisan registration though.

[lfromnj]

Of the six victorious Democratic House challengers in California, three of them are already outperforming Clinton's winning margin while two more (Porter and Hill) look likely to do so as well once all the votes are counted. As it stands:

CA-10: Harder +3. (Clinton +2)
CA-25: Hill +6. (Clinton +7)
CA-39: Cisneros +1. (Clinton +9)
CA-45: Porter +3. (Clinton +4)
CA-48: Rouda +6 (Clinton +2)
CA-49: Levin +11. (Clinton +7)

Rouda and Levin are obviously the biggest overperformers. And Cisneros is clearly the weakest link, but I doubt he'll have trouble going forward as the area continues its bluening.

I remember being told by Tea Party Hater and socaldem that Dems were doomed in these House races because Republicans led in the partisan registration though.

Surely dems will win WV03 while losing Ca 49th.

[AudmanOut]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

Reagan’s library will also be represented by a Democrat

[Tartarus Sauce]

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

R+12

That's not actually a safe R seat, and acting like redistricting reform wouldn't matter because Republicans could draw a seat like that is an indication that you aren't even paying attention to the race in UT-4. UT-4 is literally 75% overlap with that district you made, but with heavy R rurals in addition, and Ben McAdams still made it a tossup race. If these were the lines of UT-4, McAdams would easily win it.

Salt Lake County is trending heavily Democractic, the PVI belies that because the topline numbers are skewed by Romney's overperformance in 2012 due to his popularity among Mormons and the third party split in 2016 to McMullin.

[IceSpear]

#Dominating

I remember when the pundits assured me this was a pure toss up race. Clearly Rohrabacher's 30% of the vote in the jungle primary was a major sign of strength.