TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[ProgressiveModerate]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.

Sinema? Tester?

Even though all 4 of the senators listed above lost, they significantly outperformed the House PV in their state, with the exception of Nelson, who faced a strong challenger and wasn't a very good campaigner himself.

Also yeah; if a large portion of progressives abstain or vote 3rd party, the moderate D isn't going to win, and it works the other way around too.

I understand you may not agree with Joe and other more mainstream Ds on everything, but you can't just vote 3rd party and say "welp we lost this isn't working" when you were literally contributing to his loss. If you want to go ahead and vote Green, that's your right, you do you, but you get what you get nd you don't get upset at the end of the day

I'm not advocating people vote Green. I'm advocating the Democrats get better candidates than this.

You need to stop thinking of voters as being on a spectrum. Having a moderate hero candidate doesn't just depress progressive turnout. It also discourages the average voter; why would you vote for somebody who offers nothing against your opponent?

Independent voters aren't just centrists. They're also people who are open to single-payer healthcare and a ton of other so-called "radical" ideas.

Fair enough.

The Democrats have a more difficult job because they're tent is bigger and more diverse than the Republican's tent. I don't really know if this idea that moderates decrease turnout and give voters nothing to look forwards too is necessarily true.

I agree with you about Independents, but many "Independents" are just closet partisans with an I next to their name.

[tagimaucia]

It's pretty clear that the big Cornyn leads were always a mirage and if you looked at his vote share in polls, there was never any evidence that he was going to overperform Trump.

I bet that in the last round of Texas polls before election day, Hegar will have higher net favorability than either Cornyn or Biden in Texas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's pretty clear that the big Cornyn leads were always a mirage and if you looked at his vote share in polls, there was never any evidence that he was going to overperform Trump.

I bet that in the last round of Texas polls before election day, Hegar will have higher net favorability than either Cornyn or Biden in Texas.

Really hoping this ends up becoming tossup. Even though Cornyn had a solid leads in polls, it seemed most TX polling had and still has many undecides. Lean R for the time being, but I would be pleasantly surprised if Hegar ends up running away with this one. At the very least, this is one more insurance seat

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure it will, although I don't think it has a huge amount of downside all by itself. There are ways in which certain kinds of political "moderation" can and do help, especially when one's own party doesn't have an occupant in the White House, but saying, "Take my word for it - I voted for a guy some of you used to like in a secret ballot years ago," doesn't seem guaranteed to be especially helpful. It's fundamentally different from Jim Justice endorsing Trump in 2016. Even in TX, "Romney Republicans" weren't really a thing; although there are people who voted for Romney, the GOP nominees for whom there are lingering affection (in certain constituencies) are HW, W and Reagan.

It'd be one thing if this was a response to oppo research; she could burnish her credentials by being proud of what they were attacking her for, but that's not it. It just seems like (probably) wasted airtime to me.

This is TX... it will certainly help her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not sure it will, although I don't think it has a huge amount of downside all by itself. There are ways in which certain kinds of political "moderation" can and do help, especially when one's own party doesn't have an occupant in the White House, but saying, "Take my word for it - I voted for a guy some of you used to like in a secret ballot years ago," doesn't seem guaranteed to be especially helpful. It's fundamentally different from Jim Justice endorsing Trump in 2016. Even in TX, "Romney Republicans" weren't really a thing; although there are people who voted for Romney, the GOP nominees for whom there are lingering affection (in certain constituencies) are HW, W and Reagan.

It'd be one thing if this was a response to oppo research; she could burnish her credentials by being proud of what they were attacking her for, but that's not it. It just seems like (probably) wasted airtime to me.

This is TX... it will certainly help her.

Tester said D's are putting all their money into MT, KS, IA and SC.and ME. I doubt even Cunningham wins in this environment due to the dcandal

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1314574197725761541?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1314574197725761541?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

Good stuff. I was getting worried after they endorsed all 4 Republican judicial candidates.

[Hope For A New Era]

That can only help her. Suburban Texas will be full of Romney-Clinton-Biden and Romney-Trump-Biden voters. They will now see her as "one of us."

[Blair]

I am wondering if Julian Castro is regretting not runnning.

Hegar is good but this race seems to have got virtually no attention & seems to have come bottom of the list

[Roll Roons]

I am wondering if Julian Castro is regretting not runnning.

Hegar is good but this race seems to have got virtually no attention & seems to have come bottom of the list

I thought Joaquin was gearing up for a run in Spring 2019. Not sure why he didn't, since he would have likely cleared the primary field and gotten a big head start on fundraising and name rec, rather than getting locked into a messy runoff like Hegar.

[Lognog]

I am wondering if Julian Castro is regretting not runnning.

Hegar is good but this race seems to have got virtually no attention & seems to have come bottom of the list

I thought Joaquin was gearing up for a run in Spring 2019. Not sure why he didn't, since he would have likely cleared the primary field and gotten a big head start on fundraising and name rec, rather than getting locked into a messy runoff like Hegar.

perhaps running in 2024?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lmao u wanna know how big highschool football is in texas? The texas senate debate commission had to get into a fight with one of the highschool football leagues here because this is friday night football time for highschool at the same time as the debate, and they had to fight over the timeslot on the channel xD

[SevenEleven]

I am wondering if Julian Castro is regretting not runnning.

Hegar is good but this race seems to have got virtually no attention & seems to have come bottom of the list

I thought Joaquin was gearing up for a run in Spring 2019. Not sure why he didn't, since he would have likely cleared the primary field and gotten a big head start on fundraising and name rec, rather than getting locked into a messy runoff like Hegar.

He would have been dunked on by Cornyn, as he is a very ineffective politician. Hopefully the Castros go away and we can usher in a new era of Texas Dem leadership.

[Storr]

lmao u wanna know how big highschool football is in texas? The texas senate debate commission had to get into a fight with one of the highschool football leagues here because this is friday night football time for highschool at the same time as the debate, and they had to fight over the timeslot on the channel xD

This sounds so stereotypically Texas, if I didn't know it was true I'd assume it was made up.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1314695925701521412?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...
Endorsed Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016, and O’Rourke in 2018.

[Stuart98]

A debate started a few minutes ago.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1314574197725761541?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

Good stuff. I was getting worried after they endorsed all 4 Republican judicial candidates.

Not surprising. Trends descend slower down the ballot. They are just warming up to the democratic party

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Hegar is a surprisingly good debater.

[user12345]

Hegar is a surprisingly good debater.

Quite engaging and full of energy from what I've seen so far. Cornyn doesn't have the same presence on stage.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn! She is very good.

Yeah, definately moving this from Likely R to Lean R in my mental model. I'm curious to see how my actual model will react in the coming weeks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Damn! She is very good.

Yeah, definately moving this from Likely R to Lean R in my mental model. I'm curious to see how my actual model will react in the coming weeks.

If it's as good as you say, it could be cut into an ad or lead to good coverage all by itself. This could mean we are now here:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

"The Hegar effect" isn't real.

[new_patomic]

Apparently Royce West is now attacking Hegar

All these plains candidates and their sour grapes

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Apparently Royce West is now attacking Hegar

All these plains candidates and their sour grapes

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/09/royce-west-mj-hegar-texas-senate/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems should give Royce West the Sestak treatment if he ever runs for statewide office again.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still have faith in MJ Hegar. We absolutely need 55 seats folks.