Urban-rural divide on steroids

[ElectionsGuy]

I made a county map of the midwest of what I think a possible future presidential election could look like with further urban-rural division.

Midwest + Pennsylvania



Dark Red = >60% R
Red = <60% R
Blue = <60% D
Dark Blue = >60% D

Consider the average dark red and dark blue county 70-75% R or D. My formula for constructing this map was pretty much 50% 2016 trends and 50% pure rural-urban divide. In this scenario imagine Waukesha County WI barely going Republican and Hamilton Indiana barely going Democratic.

I was wondering if this type of map is realistic going forward? A map with trends more heavily weighted on how densely populated the county is and its proximity to a major metropolitan area, more than the college education aspect.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Good map! I like how you have Ozaukee County as going Democrat. I think Ozaukee will be in play for Democrats in the next 10 years or so.

Sometimes I wonder if the rurals of Dane County will trend R eventually. The Dane rurals and exurbs have remained solidly blue (and have actually gotten bluer), even in the age of the increasing urban-rural divide.

[Calthrina950]

I made a county map of the midwest of what I think a possible future presidential election could look like with further urban-rural division.

Midwest + Pennsylvania



Dark Red = >60% R
Red = <60% R
Blue = <60% D
Dark Blue = >60% D

Consider the average dark red and dark blue county 70-75% R or D. My formula for constructing this map was pretty much 50% 2016 trends and 50% pure rural-urban divide. In this scenario imagine Waukesha County WI barely going Republican and Hamilton Indiana barely going Democratic.

I was wondering if this type of map is realistic going forward? A map with trends more heavily weighted on how densely populated the county is and its proximity to a major metropolitan area, more than the college education aspect.

This is an alarming map, one that I hope will not come to pass. But unfortunately, I think we are headed on that trajectory. Do you think this will eventually be the map in Senatorial and gubernatorial elections as well?

[Sumner 1868]

An obvious exception is, of course, Vermont. But Vermont isn't a conservative state and never has been (and no, the fact it once voted Republican doesn't mean it was once conservative. Neil R. Pierce observed that Vermont's GOP leaders in the 1930s were basically left-wing).

[RINO Tom]

Perhaps a possibility in a big Democratic win, but I am of the opinion something will eventually "give" with these trends.

[Virginiá]

Aren’t places like Centre and Dauphin in PA actually trending D? And some of the other <60 real Counties out in the plains should probably be a darker red. St. Louis County, MN and Rock Island IL don’t look like they’re going anywhere either

Other than that, this seems believable.

I remember reading something a long time ago that said that rural areas based on recreation voted more Democratic than rural areas based on farming (and also other industry). I wonder if that could be at play in some of these areas. Although only one of those is near water afaik.

Edit: https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1248&context=carsey

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Aren’t places like Centre and Dauphin in PA actually trending D? And some of the other <60 real Counties out in the plains should probably be a darker red. St. Louis County, MN and Rock Island IL don’t look like they’re going anywhere either

Other than that, this seems believable.

I remember reading something a long time ago that said that rural areas based on recreation voted more Democratic than rural areas based on farming (and also other industry). I wonder if that could be at play in some of these areas. Although only one of those is near water afaik.

Edit: https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1248&context=carsey

Hot take but maybe this is why Democrats do so well in Montana compared to its neighbors?  Obviously Montana would be pretty reliably Republican without Billings/Missoula/Great Falls/Bozeman/Butte but Democrats still have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural parts in order to win there.

[ElectionsGuy]

Aren’t places like Centre and Dauphin in PA actually trending D? And some of the other <60 real Counties out in the plains should probably be a darker red. St. Louis County, MN and Rock Island IL don’t look like they’re going anywhere either

Other than that, this seems believable.

They are, but as I said in the OP, I try to balance trends with how urban or densely populated they actually are. St Louis and Rock Island could be light blue on this map, I can give you that. And unless you can give me specifics I don't think any of the light red in the great plains is unreasonable. Seward County KS saw a large Democratic trend and is very Hispanic so that probably turns bluer in the future.