The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[Frenchrepublican]

Gregg would be an instant front-runner for the primary, when he runs

Does this guy has nothing better to do in his life ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

Fort Wayne has done a good job annexing its suburbs the past 60 years. It means the city is more conservative than you would think. The City Council breakdown is 7-2 Republican, with a Democratic Mayor. Trump won the city in 2016 50-44. He won the rest of the county 70-25.

Indianapolis. First, it's really Marion County because the recently deceased former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar when he was Indianapolis Mayor pushed through Unigov to consolidate city and county government. The current Democratic mayor Hogsett has been under a lot of criticism for his stewardship. Crime has gone up and infrastructure problems are present. Whether that's enough to turn the city red in the current climate is another question.

The one thing Indiana Democrats have kind of going for it is they have some important mayor positions. Losing Indianapolis and Fort Wayne - 2 largest cities in the state - would be a bad pill to swallow.

OK, now I understand why the city of Fort Wayne is more conservative than most other cities of its size.
Concerning Indinapolis I knew this fact about Unigov, Lugar was afraid of ''white flight'' and the loss of taxpayers to suburbs, so he pushed for the consolidation of Indianapolis with Marion County. The thing is Indianapolis/Marion County is now very democratic, I'm not even sure that Eric Holcomb will be able to carry it in 2020 against the D sacrificial lamb, to be honest I don't think that the mayoral election will be really competitive.

[Frenchrepublican]

Is John Gregg running again??


Wouldn't be shocked if he did, and he could keep it within 5 or 6

No, no, it wouldn't be close this time, Gregg would be crushed, Holcomb has a 60/20 approval rate, I would be really surprised if the democratic candidate loses by less than 20 points

[Frenchrepublican]

Thoughts on South Bend?  I honestly feel the state of Buttigieg's candidacy pre-Iowa hinges on which guy ultimately wins.

I don't know anything about the mayor's race there.

Kind of like Pence after he was tabbed to be the VP nominee by Trump, Buttigieg is Mayor of South Bend in Name Only at this point.

South Bend is a democratic stronghold and it would be a very big upset if the mayor office were to flip. Right ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Howey's Mayoral Preview in today's Howey Politics. Looks like most attention is in Fort Wayne. Smith's backers have spent a lot of money. I've been getting mailers for the past month. A book has even been published that you can buy by a funder that is clearly trying to influence the election, "Rust to Gold", that talks about the resurgence of the City of Fort Wayne but has been sharply critical of Mayor Henry's Administration in the revitalization of the former General Electric factory just south of downtown (largest project in the city at present, it's one of those "take a ton of land that represents industrial decay and turn it into new residential/business/education/etc.", pretty much everyone is in favor - most D's and most R's - but the Henry administration have not been based on their actions although publicly they deny this).

As far as me, I supported the guy Smith defeated in the primary. I'd much rather the guy he defeated was on the ballot. I voted for Henry in 2015 because I thought the guy was doing a good job. I guess I'll vote for Smith. Any result here seriously wouldn't surprise me. Municipal elections are about making sure you have more people show up.

Downballot, the current City Council makeup is 7-2 Republican. One of the Democratic district councilmen briefly retired for medical reasons, then announced he was running for 1 of the 3 at-large seats, which are all presently Republican-held. The county Democratic Party chair is running for a Republican-held seat that's currently held by a guy most everyone acknowledges is an idiot. (Young and an apprentice of a current state legislator.) I think a 6-3 Republican City Council is my best bet.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/

By BRIAN A. HOWEY
   
FORT WAYNE  – Intense mayoral races could switch out city halls in Fort Wayne, Kokomo, Elkhart and Terre Haute, where an independent candidate appears to have a shot at an upset.
   
Both state political parties are spending big in the Fort Wayne race between three-term incumbent Democrat Tom Henry and Republican challenger Tim Smith. Indiana Democrats have spent $63,000, while Indiana Republicans have pumped in $65,000 for Smith this month, bringing the GOP’s total to $102,000 for the cycle.
   
According to local sources and campaign finance reports, Republicans appear to be in a position to pick up Kokomo, where Howard County Commissioner Tyler Moore is facing Democrat  Abbie Smith after three-term Democrat Mayor Greg Goodnight decided not to run. Republicans also believe they have a chance at picking up New Albany, where long-time businessman Mark Seabrook is challenging Mayor Jeff Gahan, as well as the open seat in Muncie, where Councilman Dan Ridenour is facing Democrat Terry Whitt Bailey after Democrat Mayor Dennis Tyler opted to retire.
   
Democrats appear to have a shot at Elkhart where Councilman Rod Roberson is facing former Mayor Dave Miller, who fainted during two recent debates.
   
In Terre Haute, independent Pat Goodwin is giving two-term Republican Mayor Duke Bennett a real challenge in a three-way race.
   
A number of other incumbents appear to be in good shape for reelection, including first-term Mayor Joe Hogsett in Indianapolis, Evansville’s Lloyd Winnecke, Bloomington’s John Hamilton, Lafayette’s Tony Roswarski, Richmond’s Dave Snow, and East Chicago’s Anthony Copeland. We also see new Mayor John Cannon in Portage as a probable winner after he took over that office with the conviction of the former GOP mayor.

Also a mayor change will occur in Gary, where the current mayor lost in the Democratic primary. And South Bend as well, where Pete Buttigieg is running for president.

If you had to bet, who do you think will prevail in Fort Wayne ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Thoughts on South Bend?  I honestly feel the state of Buttigieg's candidacy pre-Iowa hinges on which guy ultimately wins.

I don't know anything about the mayor's race there.

Kind of like Pence after he was tabbed to be the VP nominee by Trump, Buttigieg is Mayor of South Bend in Name Only at this point.

South Bend is a democratic stronghold and it would be a very big upset if the mayor office were to flip. Right ?

Municipal elections here tend to be VERY low-turnout.  It's all about which people decide to get off their butts and show up.

Well, since 2017 democrats have usually the edge when turnout is very low, that’s why democrats should be clearly favoured to hold South Bend.

[Frenchrepublican]

The Carmel city council elections again, this time by precinct (and with neater lines). Nelson won every precinct in Carmel West and fell just short of 60% in several, but the strongest precinct for the Dems of the 12 they carried was Mowhawk Hills (a neighborhood within walking distance of downtown Carmel). Meanwhile, the strongest GOP precinct in a contested district was Woodfield, which borders the city of Westfield to the north.

The three GOP > 60% precincts in Carmel North are the oldest section of the neighborhood centered around Our Lady of Mount Carmel; if they're subtracted from the district total, the incumbent Republican councilor wins reelection by 186 votes (the actual margin in the district was 273). Mount Carmel 2, comprising the new section, voted for the Democratic candidate by a single vote, 109 to 108.

Given the evident west/east divide, it will be interesting to see how the precincts west of Illinois Street in the uncontested Southeast district vote in 2020.

(1)

Precinct boundary map taken from the official city website (link).



(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

Very interesting

[Frenchrepublican]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

[Frenchrepublican]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

Again, looking forward to 2020, if this is a good Democrat year, and the GOP are larger than ever due to good performance in smaller city and town races not driven by the national political narrative, do the Democrats even approach having a strategy outside of large urban areas? Zody's quote in HPI this morning, he's full-on identity politics. You have to get to sentence 4 before he stops talking about what color or gender people were born as.

I think the Indiana Dems would be wise to look at Andy Beshear in Kentucky.  He was able to excite urban and suburban voters while not totally scaring off rural and small-town voters.

Sure, but Holcomb =/= Bevin

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are my maps for Indianapolis City-County Council. I live in 6, and I can't believe the Democratic candidate won. I've lived here for over four years, and it came as a complete shock.

Not really surprising, Clinton won the northern parts of Marion County by double digits. The district where you live is basically the equivalent of VA10th

[Frenchrepublican]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

"It's changing" doesn't mean "it's going to flip communist" all of the sudden. For example Rhode Island trended hard R in 2016, but you don't see folks on the right screeching some deluded fantasy about it "flipping" in 2020.

Some people on Atlas think that every D trends are state in stone while R trends are just fluke

[Frenchrepublican]

Frankly, Holcomb is clearly safe and will win with more than 60%

[Frenchrepublican]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

[Frenchrepublican]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

I think Buttigieg's political future is him getting out of Indiana. He lives in Walorski's congressional district which is winnable for a Democrat, and he chose to run for DNC Chair and for President. I never thought he'd win the nomination - still don't, blacks hate him too much considering their percentage of the Democratic primary electorate - but he's looking to be the VP nominee or some kind of cabinet/agency chief job.

The Indiana Democratic Party is effectively a dead organization statewide. I was looking at candidate filings yesterday with a buddy in Whitley County (county west of Fort Wayne) and not a single Democrat filed there for anything except State Convention Delegate.

IN-2 is not winnable for them ; two years ago they spent $ 4M against Walorski and she still won 54/45, this ditrict is gone