The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!
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Author Topic: The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!  (Read 33701 times)
libertpaulian
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« on: November 12, 2018, 05:29:41 PM »

Well, now that the US Senate election is behind us, and Braun has vanquished Donnelly, I think it's safe to say a few lessons can be learned on both sides:

1. The Indiana Democratic Party is a major dumpster fire, and John Zody should be fired like ten million years ago.  Under Zody's watch, Indiana Democrats have watched their only two statewide elected officials (Donnelly and Ritz) get unseated by insurgent candidates no one saw coming (Braun and McCormick).
2. Donnelly did very little to excite the Democratic base, and his loss was mostly his own doing.  You can't expect to attack "the radical left" and expect those same leftys to turn out for you.
3. The Indiana Republican Party knows how to win like no other.  Young was able to define Bayh early on and prevail.  Holcomb was able to gain last-minute momentum and defeat Gregg.  McCormick ousted Ritz.  The state superintendent race was on no one's radar, not even on those of the biggest Hoosier political nerds.  You gotta give it to them for their discipline and organization.
4. The fact that the Dems were able to pick up seats in the state legislature, including a state senate seat (!), was an amazing feat in and of itself.  An openly gay man defeated one of the chief architects of RFRA!  
5. Indiana Republicans should feel good about themselves, but they shouldn't rest on their laurels.  Statewide races can be elastic, especially if the economy slows down in 2020 or things go wrong in the statehouse.

Now, in terms of 2020...

I see a nearly nonexistent path to victory for any Democrat who wants to win the gubernatorial race.  Trump will be at the top of the ticket, and Holcomb is very popular.  Other than Pete Buttigieg, I don't see anyone who can make the race even remotely competitive.

The State Superintendent of Public Instruction might be winnable, but it depends on who's running.

The Indystar ran a very good article, IMO, detailing the state party's woes:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/11/indiana-democrats-flailing-after-midterm-election-results-and-how-they-might-start-winning/1929499002/

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Essentially, it's the same tired story in the other statewide races that we witnessed in 2018, from Stacey Abrams in Georgia to Beto O'Rourke in Texas to Claire McCaskill in Missouri: The rural voters that were once reliable blue dog voters are now all pretty much Republican.  The Dems are becoming the party of the cities and suburbs.

So, this will be the thread to discuss all things related to Hoosier elections, from the municipal races next year to any special elections that come up to the gubernatorial and row office elections in 2020 to any Trump rallies that might be held here to all elections beyond.

Let's talk!
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Galaxie
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2018, 06:28:59 PM »

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2018, 07:37:10 PM »

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 
They're more like the WOW counties, but they are slowly trending D.  Donnelly lost Hamilton County, which was once hailed as a bastion of suburban conservatism, by a mere 11,000 votes, a significant chunk of which I'm sure were from the more rural northern part of the county.

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 10:09:10 PM »

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 

Yes. But they’re still moving left like other suburbs. The Indiana Dems shouldn’t aim at winning Hamilton County outright as much as trying to dent Republican marginsnthere. The goal here is trying to get core Dem voters in the big cities and college towns to turn out.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2018, 10:10:19 PM »

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 

Yes. But they’re still moving left like other suburbs. The Indiana Dems shouldn’t aim at winning Hamilton County outright as much as trying to dent Republican marginsnthere. The goal here is trying to get core Dem voters in the big cities and college towns to turn out.
Bingo.  The only way a Dem presidential candidate is winning Hamilton County is if they're winning Indiana.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2018, 10:22:59 PM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2018, 10:32:54 PM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2018, 10:37:06 PM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2018, 10:56:22 AM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.
The fact that Donnelly was able to keep his loss in HamCo to single digits portends well for Democrats there in the future.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2018, 11:44:33 AM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.

It's funny, even Manchin's win in West Virgina was essentially him winning what could be consisdered the ubran/surburban areas of the state (Charleston, Huntington, Wheeling, Morgantown, DC exurbs, etc).
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2018, 01:23:57 PM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.
The fact that Donnelly was able to keep his loss in HamCo to single digits portends well for Democrats there in the future.


Its impressive considering his entire campaign was pandering to hicks in Vigo by doing stuff like build the wall. Vigo is useless now go for hamilton.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2018, 01:31:18 PM »

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.
The fact that Donnelly was able to keep his loss in HamCo to single digits portends well for Democrats there in the future.


Its impressive considering his entire campaign was pandering to hicks in Vigo by doing stuff like build the wall. Vigo is useless now go for hamilton.
Vigo used to be the bellwether county for the nation.  I think that will start to become less of the case as the cycles go by.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2018, 02:03:32 PM »

Dems should go after Susan Brooks. Her district contains the most Romney-Clinton voters by far. She’d be much easier to unseat than Walorski or Hollingsworth IMO.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2018, 02:09:07 PM »

Dems should go after Susan Brooks. Her district contains the most Romney-Clinton voters by far. She’d be much easier to unseat than Walorski or Hollingsworth IMO.
Dee Thornton had absolutely no money, yet was able to garner 43% of the vote against Brooks.  That's the best performance for an IN-05 Dem in recent memory.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2018, 02:17:26 PM »

Dems should go after Susan Brooks. Her district contains the most Romney-Clinton voters by far. She’d be much easier to unseat than Walorski or Hollingsworth IMO.
Dee Thornton had absolutely no money, yet was able to garner 43% of the vote against Brooks.  That's the best performance for an IN-05 Dem in recent memory.

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Nathan
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2018, 04:28:53 PM »

I have a dear friend who lives in Brooks's district and would be delighted to see her go down.

I think Indiana's political geography has been ground zero for a realignment of American political cleavages away from both material issues and "classic" social issues and towards 1. degree of formal education and 2. level of comfort with the outside world. I say this not to cast aspersions on either side of this new cleavage but to try to define it in as morally neutral a way as possible.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2018, 07:56:51 PM »

I have a dear friend who lives in Brooks's district and would be delighted to see her go down.

I think Indiana's political geography has been ground zero for a realignment of American political cleavages away from both material issues and "classic" social issues and towards 1. degree of formal education and 2. level of comfort with the outside world. I say this not to cast aspersions on either side of this new cleavage but to try to define it in as morally neutral a way as possible.
Based on Indiana's geography and various regional cultures, I agree with you 100%.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2018, 07:08:25 PM »

Hoosier Republicans are lining up to pass a hate crimes bill:

https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2018/11/15/sen-ron-alting-follows-up-indiana-hate-crime-bill-promise/2011768002/

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This is pretty significant.  A bill of this nature almost passed the session earlier this year, but a couple of obstructionists got in the way, and it never even made it to a vote.  Let's hope 2019 is the year.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2018, 07:01:07 PM »

The Indiana General Assembly's 2019 Session has begun, and new legislators have been sworn in!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-lawmakers-convene-tuesday-for-ceremonial-opening-of-new-legislative/article_9e5ac708-d0d5-5bdf-9e5d-df77994e9930.html

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Nathan
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2018, 11:42:16 PM »

Hoosier Republicans are lining up to pass a hate crimes bill:

https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2018/11/15/sen-ron-alting-follows-up-indiana-hate-crime-bill-promise/2011768002/

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This is pretty significant.  A bill of this nature almost passed the session earlier this year, but a couple of obstructionists got in the way, and it never even made it to a vote.  Let's hope 2019 is the year.


Interesting that the GOP in what's steadily becoming a Titanium R state is contemplating taking these steps while swing-state Republican legislators have been at full wingnut for almost a decade.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2018, 12:55:03 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2018, 01:21:20 PM by StateBoiler »

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.

According to Howey, only person that's done the touring state circuit stumping for down ballot Democrats acting like he or she is running for Governor was Gregg, and to a lesser extent 2016 LG nominee Cristina Hale but word is she's waiting for 2024. In a state party that has not had a real primary election for Governor or Senator since the 2008 governor's race, no one except Gregg is acting like they'll do it. Really I think their best option is Donnelly because nominating Gregg just feels like a "we know we're going to lose".

Also disagree with your take on Donnelly's campaign. In northeast Indiana, the Democrat candidate against Banks was Courtney Tritch who worked for the Sanders campaign, was unashamedly liberal, was all over the air waves, and was far and away the best-funded and most credible Democrat nominee for the district in a decade. Allen County which is the most liberal county in the district by far (has Fort Wayne), Donnelly ran ahead of Tritch and that was with a Libertarian on the ballot, while Tritch had a straight-up race vs. Banks. Wouldn't be a bad exercise statewide actually, compare Donnelly to the representative candidates to see who ran ahead. Looking at Allen County results for candidates that were countywide, Donnelly ran ahead of every Democrat while Braun was about 5000 votes under the next-worst Republican. The Senate contest at a county level was the closest race we had.

By the way, won my race for Township Board.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2018, 12:57:11 PM »

Hoosier Republicans are lining up to pass a hate crimes bill:

https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2018/11/15/sen-ron-alting-follows-up-indiana-hate-crime-bill-promise/2011768002/

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This is pretty significant.  A bill of this nature almost passed the session earlier this year, but a couple of obstructionists got in the way, and it never even made it to a vote.  Let's hope 2019 is the year.


Interesting that the GOP in what's steadily becoming a Titanium R state is contemplating taking these steps while swing-state Republican legislators have been at full wingnut for almost a decade.

ask RI dems.
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Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: November 26, 2018, 07:27:50 PM »

Hoosier Republicans are lining up to pass a hate crimes bill:

https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2018/11/15/sen-ron-alting-follows-up-indiana-hate-crime-bill-promise/2011768002/

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This is pretty significant.  A bill of this nature almost passed the session earlier this year, but a couple of obstructionists got in the way, and it never even made it to a vote.  Let's hope 2019 is the year.


Interesting that the GOP in what's steadily becoming a Titanium R state is contemplating taking these steps while swing-state Republican legislators have been at full wingnut for almost a decade.

ask RI dems.

I'm familiar with the Rhode Island Dems. I'm not fond of them. This thread is about Indiana.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2018, 04:41:50 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2018, 04:50:40 PM by libertpaulian »

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.
Who else do the Democrats have?  Gregg is a perennial loser, Hale doesn't have any statewide appeal (at least as far as I know), Hogsett is DOA given Indy's crime problem, and Donnelly sure as hell isn't going to run statewide a mere two years after he lost a statewide race.  Mayor Pete is the only one with any semblance of a chance.  He isn't going to run in IN-02 given he doesn't come off as the legislative type.

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Gregg would probably be better suited running for AG against Hill or Congress against Bucshon.  He'd definitely be an asset on the campaign trail, though, given how Dems have been collapsing in Southern Indiana over the past decade.  

Why Donnelly?

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Donnelly did a little better in NE Indiana than usual, but I was mainly talking about the two areas that should be the Dems' bread-and-butter no matter what: The Region and Marion County.  Compare the statistics to 2012...if Donnelly would have gotten his 2012 numbers in those areas, he would have prevailed.

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Congratulations!  
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2018, 12:41:31 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2018, 12:54:09 PM by StateBoiler »

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.
Who else do the Democrats have?  Gregg is a perennial loser, Hale doesn't have any statewide appeal (at least as far as I know), Hogsett is DOA given Indy's crime problem, and Donnelly sure as hell isn't going to run statewide a mere two years after he lost a statewide race.  Mayor Pete is the only one with any semblance of a chance.

You have to actually convince Buttigieg to run! Running for DNC chair and acting like you're running for president when they party's bench is as shallow as can be does not demonstrate an interest in Indiana statewide politics.

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Gregg would probably be better suited running for AG against Hill or Congress against Bucshon.  He'd definitely be an asset on the campaign trail, though, given how Dems have been collapsing in Southern Indiana over the past decade.  

Why Donnelly?[/quote]

Who else is there in the Indiana Democratic Party that's actually won an election outside of a narrow voter base? Evan Bayh's retired, Frank O'Bannon is dead...

The tea leaves were (key word there: were) Hill was considering running against Holcomb in a primary. Not sure if that's happening now.

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Donnelly did a little better in NE Indiana than usual, but I was mainly talking about the two areas that should be the Dems' bread-and-butter no matter what: The Region and Marion County.  Compare the statistics to 2012...if Donnelly would have gotten his 2012 numbers in those areas, he would have prevailed.[/quote]

2012 had President Obama on the ballot. There's a lot of people that vote in elections that only care about who the president is.

It's inaccurate to say Donnelly won though if Lake and Marion were at 2012 numbers. In 2012, he was +196k. In 2018, he was +149k. He'd still lose if he got the 2012 numbers. Comparing to 2018, Lake County in spite of having a turnout of 20k less from 2012 to 2018, Braun's number of votes went up from Mourdock's (52.1k to 54.6k). You could put that on Mourdock being a bad candidate/Braun was a better candidate, Obama was a major draw in Lake County and now that he's gone so is the draw, or Lake County became a little more Republican in the last 6 years. Marion looks to just be a difference in turnout deal, as Donnelly was down 30k in total votes, Braun was down 8500 from Mourdock, and the Libertarian candidate was down 10k.

I've got detailed Allen County election results by a litany of political subdivisions for '14 and '16. I'll work on '18. But Donnelly outperformed every other Democrat on a countywide level. We have a couple Democrat-heavy divisions in 2 of the city council seats, one is downtown white liberal/progressive and one is heavy black, I can work on that.

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Congratulations![/quote]

Thanks. Got my letter of certification from the county election board yesterday.
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