The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[StateBoiler]

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.

According to Howey, only person that's done the touring state circuit stumping for down ballot Democrats acting like he or she is running for Governor was Gregg, and to a lesser extent 2016 LG nominee Cristina Hale but word is she's waiting for 2024. In a state party that has not had a real primary election for Governor or Senator since the 2008 governor's race, no one except Gregg is acting like they'll do it. Really I think their best option is Donnelly because nominating Gregg just feels like a "we know we're going to lose".

Also disagree with your take on Donnelly's campaign. In northeast Indiana, the Democrat candidate against Banks was Courtney Tritch who worked for the Sanders campaign, was unashamedly liberal, was all over the air waves, and was far and away the best-funded and most credible Democrat nominee for the district in a decade. Allen County which is the most liberal county in the district by far (has Fort Wayne), Donnelly ran ahead of Tritch and that was with a Libertarian on the ballot, while Tritch had a straight-up race vs. Banks. Wouldn't be a bad exercise statewide actually, compare Donnelly to the representative candidates to see who ran ahead. Looking at Allen County results for candidates that were countywide, Donnelly ran ahead of every Democrat while Braun was about 5000 votes under the next-worst Republican. The Senate contest at a county level was the closest race we had.

By the way, won my race for Township Board.

[StateBoiler]

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.

Who else do the Democrats have?  Gregg is a perennial loser, Hale doesn't have any statewide appeal (at least as far as I know), Hogsett is DOA given Indy's crime problem, and Donnelly sure as hell isn't going to run statewide a mere two years after he lost a statewide race.  Mayor Pete is the only one with any semblance of a chance.

You have to actually convince Buttigieg to run! Running for DNC chair and acting like you're running for president when they party's bench is as shallow as can be does not demonstrate an interest in Indiana statewide politics.

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Gregg would probably be better suited running for AG against Hill or Congress against Bucshon.  He'd definitely be an asset on the campaign trail, though, given how Dems have been collapsing in Southern Indiana over the past decade.  

Why Donnelly?[/quote]

Who else is there in the Indiana Democratic Party that's actually won an election outside of a narrow voter base? Evan Bayh's retired, Frank O'Bannon is dead...

The tea leaves were (key word there: were) Hill was considering running against Holcomb in a primary. Not sure if that's happening now.

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Donnelly did a little better in NE Indiana than usual, but I was mainly talking about the two areas that should be the Dems' bread-and-butter no matter what: The Region and Marion County.  Compare the statistics to 2012...if Donnelly would have gotten his 2012 numbers in those areas, he would have prevailed.[/quote]

2012 had President Obama on the ballot. There's a lot of people that vote in elections that only care about who the president is.

It's inaccurate to say Donnelly won though if Lake and Marion were at 2012 numbers. In 2012, he was +196k. In 2018, he was +149k. He'd still lose if he got the 2012 numbers. Comparing to 2018, Lake County in spite of having a turnout of 20k less from 2012 to 2018, Braun's number of votes went up from Mourdock's (52.1k to 54.6k). You could put that on Mourdock being a bad candidate/Braun was a better candidate, Obama was a major draw in Lake County and now that he's gone so is the draw, or Lake County became a little more Republican in the last 6 years. Marion looks to just be a difference in turnout deal, as Donnelly was down 30k in total votes, Braun was down 8500 from Mourdock, and the Libertarian candidate was down 10k.

I've got detailed Allen County election results by a litany of political subdivisions for '14 and '16. I'll work on '18. But Donnelly outperformed every other Democrat on a countywide level. We have a couple Democrat-heavy divisions in 2 of the city council seats, one is downtown white liberal/progressive and one is heavy black, I can work on that.

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Congratulations![/quote]

Thanks. Got my letter of certification from the county election board yesterday.

[StateBoiler]

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Brian-Howey-If-you-see-a-courthouse-Democrat-take-a-photo/-3/346/19524

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[StateBoiler]

Some number crunching of precincts I've done. Donnelly vs. Tritch - Allen County only

Fort Wayne

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The 4 Republican-held City Council districts

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The 2 Democrat-held City Council districts

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Rest of Allen County (all unincorporated areas and the other cities and small towns, I've never seen a difference in voting patterns between unincorporated Allen County and non-Fort Wayne incorporated areas in the county)

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Looking at a couple other subdivisions based on State legislature seats and County Council seats, Tritch ran even to a little ahead of Donnelly almost everywhere that was Democrat-held. But Donnelly ran more ahead of her in jurisdictions that were Republican-held.

The imbalanced race of the two with one having a Libertarian and one not means you have to mull a bit versus being a straight up comparison, although it looks like the Libertarian in the 4 Republican-held City Council seat districts took entirely from Braun. In related news, the last week of the race I received a mailer comparing Lucy Brenton to Steve Braun, saying Braun was too liberal for Indiana, was a Democrat his whole life, and voted to raise taxes x number of times. The mailer said at the bottom it was paid for by the Indiana Democratic Party.

Tritch's lead from Fort Wayne over Banks is completely wiped out by Banks' performance over her in Huntertown for example, an electorate that was 29 times smaller than Fort Wayne. (If the Fort Wayne numbers seem odd to people not from this area as being more conservative than you'd think, Fort Wayne has done a really good job over the years of annexing its suburbs.) The county is such that the past couple elections the ratio of Fort Wayne voters to "Rest of Allen County" voters is 2:1. So for a Democrat to win the county if say RoAC went 70-30 Republican, they'd about have to win Fort Wayne 60-40. For comparison, Trump won the RoAC vote 70-25 over Clinton in 2016, and he also won Fort Wayne 50-44. The 2016 Senate race, Young won Fort Wayne 47-46 and RoAC 66-29. The 2016 governor's race, Holcomb won Fort Wayne 49-48 and RoAC 67-30.

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

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Part of me for McDermott sees him using a gubernatorial run for name value expecting to lose to Holcomb, and when Visclosky retires, he's the most recognizable candidate in what will be a Democratic primary free-for-all.

[StateBoiler]

Buttigieg. Not running for governor, or mayor of South Bend.

http://www.howeypolitics.com

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[StateBoiler]

One more potential Democrat opts not to run for governor.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-McDermott-reelection-Shutdown-talks-Romney-s-check-/39/123/19741

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https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Atomic-TeamHolcomb-record-Gaveling-in-Trump-torches-Pence/-3/346/19752

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I think the Holcomb funding is more to discourage Curtis Hill's supporters than it is worrying about the Democrats' nominee.

[StateBoiler]

Biggest news from this is Donnelly appears uninterested.

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI190117-d87bf71e829a48808238a9a6d1f064a5.pdf

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[StateBoiler]

From Howey:

Donnelly not interested in challenging Gov. Holcomb in 2020

"I am not looking at any other races." - Former senator Joe Donnelly after Howey Politics Indiana asked him in today's HPI Interview at the University of Notre Dame if he was considering a challenge in 2020 to Gov. Eric Holcomb. Asked if he would rule anything out politically in the future, Donnelly responded, "I’m just lucky to have a chance to teach here and I’m trying to get my snow blower going these days."  Donnelly lost to U.S. Sen. Mike Braun in 2018, ending a 12 year career in Congress. Currently there isn't an Indiana Democrat expressing public interest in challenging Holcomb. One Democratic insider told HPI the party may opt for a "placeholder" nominee while mounting a serious challenge to embattled Republican Attorney General Curtis Hill.

[StateBoiler]

Mr. Howey again:

4. Rokita challenge to AG Hill?

 Former congressman Todd Rokita issued a "no comment" after we asked if he would challenge Attorney General Curtis Hill in the June 2020 Republican Convention. Sources tell HPI that Rokita has been approached by Republicans inside and outside of Indianapolis about challenging Hill, who is facing an Indiana Supreme Court disciplinary action over allegations from four women of sexual harassment. Since those allegations, Gov. Holcomb and the GOP hierarchy have called for him to resign. Rokita won a four-way convention floor fight for secretary of state in 2002. Republicans are concerned that Hill could provide a similar beachhead for Democrats. When Rokita was nominated in 2002, Democrats held the governors office and House. John Westercamp, an attorney with Bose McKinney, is also weighing a GOP convention challenge to Hill. We’re hearing that Democrats would like Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. to seek their nomination.

[StateBoiler]

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – The most likely gubernatorial scenario appears to be former health commissioner Woody Myers challenging Gov. Eric Holcomb. Indiana Democrats tell HPI that beyond Myers, John Gregg and Christina Hale, others are gauging potential runs, though party sources were reluctant to reveal who they are. Other names surfacing include former congressman
Baron Hill, State Rep. Karlee Macer of Indianapolis and State Sen. Eddie Melton of Gary.

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

Fort Wayne has done a good job annexing its suburbs the past 60 years. It means the city is more conservative than you would think. The City Council breakdown is 7-2 Republican, with a Democratic Mayor. Trump won the city in 2016 50-44. He won the rest of the county 70-25.

Indianapolis. First, it's really Marion County because the recently deceased former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar when he was Indianapolis Mayor pushed through Unigov to consolidate city and county government. The current Democratic mayor Hogsett has been under a lot of criticism for his stewardship. Crime has gone up and infrastructure problems are present. Whether that's enough to turn the city red in the current climate is another question.

The one thing Indiana Democrats have kind of going for it is they have some important mayor positions. Losing Indianapolis and Fort Wayne - 2 largest cities in the state - would be a bad pill to swallow.

[StateBoiler]

Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson ousted in the Democratic primary by former City Councilman Jerome Prince 48-38. Otherwise most mayoral primaries went to form. In Fort Wayne, businessman Tim Smith defeated City Councilman John Crawford 56-42 to take on incumbent Tom Henry.

[StateBoiler]

Howey's post-primary day short writeup:

https://howeypolitics.com/

Wednesday, May 8, 2019 10:49 AM

By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

1. Here are your hump day power lunch talking points: Last November, Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson was elected president the National League of Cities, telling her colleagues, "I look forward to leading this organization and telling the story of Gary on the national stage.” Her "Gary story" now includes her upset primary defeat to Lake County Assessor Jerome Prince, 6,967 to 5,418, with about 1,500 votes scattered among the other seven candidates. Freeman-Wilson drew criticism for the NLC post while Gary wallowed in violence and fiscal woes. Prince entered the race just hours before deadline. "Let's reimagine Gary," Prince told the crowd (NWI Times). "Thank you for believing in me." 

 [...]

[StateBoiler]

A 3rd individual, State Senator Eddie Melton from the Region, put his name in as "just exploring" for the Governor's race.

Should point out the last time the Democrats had a contested statewide primary for Governor or Senator was 2008.

[StateBoiler]

Hill has a primary opponent for Attorney General. From Indy Politics:

http://indypolitics.org/a-few-political-items-of-interest/

Zionsville attorney John Westercamp is formally announcing this week his seeing the nomination for Attorney General.   He’s making the announcement on Thursday at stops in Indianapolis, Elkhart, Ft. Wayne and Evansville.  If you subscribe to the Cheat Sheet you knew months ago this was happening.  Also, Westercamp has been making the Lincoln Day rounds.  I ran into him at the Morgan County and Franklin Township Lincoln Day dinners. Westercamp is also one of the lawyers who helped draft RFRA and is seen in one of the photos of the signing with then-Governor Mike Pence.

[StateBoiler]

Is John Gregg running again??


Wouldn't be shocked if he did, and he could keep it within 5 or 6

Gregg's chance was 2016 running against Pence. Unfortunately for him Pence withdrew to run for another job and ot became a Republican landslide.

[StateBoiler]

Personally, I'd like to see Glenda Ritz run for Governor.

Co-shares last Democrat to win statewide with Joe Donnelly.

From Howey:

2. Time in the cornfield

 Third CD Democrats had their “Cornfield Conference” over the weekend, begging the question, why wasn’t this a statewide event? Two potential gubernatorial hopefuls -Rep. Karlee Macer and Sen. Eddie Melton - were there. But Dr. Woody Myers, who appears to be on the brink of a candidacy and is a potential self-funder, wasn’t on the bill. Macer’s reason for not jumping in is because of two weddings for her kids this summer, telling the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, “I'm on the biggest mom high in my life.”  Melton is also taking his time, all this coming as Gov. Eric Holcomb and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch have amassed a $5 million war chest.

Some background. "Cornfield Conference" has a political history of sorts. In 1938 when Republicans were at a nadir due to Roosevelt/Depression/New Deal/strong Democratic governor and potential-at-the-time Roosevelt heir Paul McNutt, farmer Homer Capehart organized a Cornfield Conference at his farm where a ton of Republicans gathered for a period of time and strategized their comeback, winning the governorship in 1944. Capehart also became a U.S. Senator in 1944 and served 3 terms in the Senate.

The 3rd District is Northeast Indiana. Only 3 of the ten or so counties in the district attended, and the state Democratic Party did not publicize the event. Neither did the largest county in the district, Allen (home to Fort Wayne).

Again, although there are 3 people "exploring" runs, I suspect there will only be 1 candidate that files. The Indiana Democratic Party have not had a contested statewide primary for Governor or Senator since 2008.

As far as Hale, looks like she might be going for the seat in Congress Brooks will vacate.

3. Hale yes?

 A "Draft Hale for Congress" Facebook page has appeared. Former legislator Christina Hale is mulling a bid for the open 5th CD seat. "As she has proven throughout her career, Christina Hale has the experience and ability to lead. That's why we need her in Congress," the page says. Thus far, 2018 nominee Dee Thornton is the only Democrat who has signaled a candidacy, which she will kick off on July 15 in Westfield.

[StateBoiler]

Howey today:

Big INGov week

Here are your Monday power lunch talking points: This should be a milestone week in the Indiana governor's race. Gov. Eric Holcomb kicks off his reelect at the historic "Hoosiers" gym in Knightstown at 1 p.m. Saturday. And he still doesn't have an opponent. Dr. Woody Myers told HPI last month he would be launching in early July, so there's a week until it comes mid-July. Rep. Karlee Macer is working on emptying her nest (i.e. two of her kids are getting married), and Sen. Eddie Melton is doing a listening tour with Republican Supt. Jennifer McCormick, creating the most interesting story line, but no challenger.

Since Howey Politics Indiana has been covering gubernatorial politics (we're approaching our 25th anniversary), we have never seen a major party without a gubernatorial candidate (or frontrunner) this late in the process. Perhaps the Democratic sorting will occur at the IDEA Convention at French Lick Aug. 22-24.

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

Myers to enter INGov

Here are your Tuesday power lunch talking points: Dr. Woody Myers is set to become the first Democratic gubernatorial contender. He kicks off his campaign at 11:30 a.m. Wednesday at the old Wishard Hospital ER, where he used to treat and teach. He will be introduced by Baron Hill. Myers becomes the first entry of a trio of candidates pondering a run, with State Rep. Karlee Macer and State Sen. Eddie Melton weighing bids.

Don't be surprised if Myers is the only Democrat in the race  by the time of the IDEA confab at French Lick in late August. Why? First, Myers can self fund to an extent (his Conrad Hotel condo is worth a reported $4.5 million). Second, Democrats have a historic aversion to contested INGov primaries  (Matt Welsh, Larry Conrad, John Hillenbrand III, Wayne Townsend, Evan Bayh, Frank O'Bannon and John Gregg were nomination shoo-ins). The notable exception was the 2008 slugfest between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger. JLT won the primary by less than 1%, then lost in a landslide to Gov. Mitch Daniels without much funding. Third, both Macer and Melton would have to give up their General Assembly seats to run. Melton is a lock on his Gary seat and the Dems would retain it if he runs for governor. Macer has defended her Speedway seat, but if it opens, Republicans would have a shot. Super minority Dems can't afford to lose any more seats. For Melton and Macer, floating a gov bid this cycle is good politics. It puts their names out in the gubernatorial context, setting up potential runs in 2024 when the seat will likely be open.

[StateBoiler]

Rokita is considering making a return to the Statehouse still (former Secretary of State) and running for Attorney General. He was beside Holcomb when Holcomb made his reelect campaign official. 

[StateBoiler]

Howey today:

3. McDermott v. Visclosky

 Everyone knows Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott is antsy for the next political chapter. U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky is taking notice, with his campaign making a big document request from city hall. Visclosky told the NWI Times'  Dan Carden: "I appreciate the mayor's prompt and thorough attention to this normal request, which was sent via certified mail on Oct. 11, 2019, and also hand-delivered by my campaign director this morning." McDermott: "I've made it a priority of mine to have a good relationship with all of the elected officials, and the only one that I really haven't gotten a chance to know in the 15 years I've been mayor is Pete Visclosky. For some reason he wants nothing to do with me or my city." Earlier this month, McDermott called for a censure of President Trump, while Visclosky is backing the impeachment inquiry. "If I don't think the congressman is doing something that's in the best interests of the Region, I'm going to say it, out loud. And if that means I get (open records) requests filed against me by my congressman, then so be it. But it is definitely intimidation."


5. Hill was drinkin'

Attorney General Curtis Hill is now acknowledging in court filings that he had three glasses of wine, a martini and a shot of Fireball Cinnamon Whisky at the 2017 sine die party that has imperiled his political career. State Rep. Mara Candaleria Reardon and three legislative aides say the AG was acting like a horndog in a fit of groping. All of this is part of the Supreme Court's disciplinary process that could determine Hill's law license status and his ability to stay in office. Stay tuned, this one is coming to a head.

[StateBoiler]

Think it's pretty clear that Holcomb, Hupfer, and Bosma would rather Hill be gone.

Hill has tied himself pretty tight to that Terre Haute attorney Bopp that's a party power player.

I was a delegate at the 2018 State Convention. If I am in 2020, I'm not voting for Hill. Really it's smart for the party to dump him. Holcomb is significantly stronger going into 2020 than Pence was going into 2016. If you remove the Curtis Hill talking point from the Democrats, what else are they going to run on that is Indiana-centric?

[StateBoiler]

Other items:

The 5th district that Brooks is retiring from, Mike Braun's brother Steve who completely bottled getting Todd Rokita's old seat, announced and not long later withdrew from the race. This is shaping up to be former Lt. Gov. nominee for the Democrats Christina Hale taking on State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell.

Meanwhile: the Chicago area 1st district looks like it might have a Democratic primary fight.

In the first CD, Visclosky posted $149,248 for the quarter, spent $128,018 and had $514,851 cash on hand. Mayor McDermott has not opened up a federal committee. But the Times of Northwest Indiana’s Dan Carden reported that the Visclosky campaign has made a public records request covering much of McDermott’s 15 years in office.

According to the Times, an additional request for McDermott campaign finance records separately was submitted to the Lake County Board of Elections and Voter Registration, according to Michelle Fajman, director of the voter registration office. McDermott told the Times that the requests were delivered to Hammond City Hall by Visclosky Campaign Director Cindy Wagner, also known as Cindy Lopez, in a white envelope prominently featuring the Visclosky campaign logo. The person officially requesting the documents is Hayley Rumback, of South Portland, Maine, whose political consulting firm was paid $5,750 by Visclosky’s campaign on March 31 for a “research project,” according to federal campaign finance records. In response to inquiries by The Times, Visclosky said: “I appreciate the mayor’s prompt and thorough attention to this normal request, which was sent via certified mail on Oct. 11, 2019, and also hand-delivered by my campaign director this morning.”

McDermott, who had told HPI he was pondering a challenge to Visclosky, then hosted a conspicuous hospitality party at the IDEA Convention in French Lick last August, told the Times, “I wonder if Congressman Pete treats all of his mayors that way, or if I’m just special? I have a great relationship with almost every elected official in Northwest Indiana, Republican and Democrat. I’ve made it a priority of mine to have a good relationship with all of the elected officials, and the only one that I really haven’t gotten a chance to know in the 15 years I’ve been mayor is Pete Visclosky. For some reason he wants nothing to do with me or my city.”

That is a fascinating assertion: The mayor of the biggest city in the CD and a former Lake County Democratic chairman has never had a working relationship with the congressman. Last month, Visclosky announced he was backing the House impeachment inquiry, while McDermott came out favoring a censure of President Trump. “If I don’t think the congressman is doing something that’s in the best interests of the Region, I’m going to say it, out loud,” McDermott told the Times. “And if that means I get (open records) requests filed against me by my congressman, then so be it. But it is definitely intimidation.” Visclosky won the 1st CD in 1984, defeating U.S. Rep. Katie Hall and Jack Crawford in the Democratic primary. Visclosky fended off two more primary challenges from Hall in 1986 and 1990. He has never drawn less than 71% in any subsequent Democratic primary.

Democrats for governor may ironically end up a 3-way after not having a contested primary for either governor or Senator since 2008.

Mayor elections coming up in 2 weeks. Honestly not kept up in attention. In Indianapolis, Howey says Hogsett has a big money advantage over Merritt. I can tell you in Fort Wayne that I feel it's a tossup between Smith and Henry.