The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[libertpaulian]

Well, now that the US Senate election is behind us, and Braun has vanquished Donnelly, I think it's safe to say a few lessons can be learned on both sides:

1. The Indiana Democratic Party is a major dumpster fire, and John Zody should be fired like ten million years ago.  Under Zody's watch, Indiana Democrats have watched their only two statewide elected officials (Donnelly and Ritz) get unseated by insurgent candidates no one saw coming (Braun and McCormick).
2. Donnelly did very little to excite the Democratic base, and his loss was mostly his own doing.  You can't expect to attack "the radical left" and expect those same leftys to turn out for you.
3. The Indiana Republican Party knows how to win like no other.  Young was able to define Bayh early on and prevail.  Holcomb was able to gain last-minute momentum and defeat Gregg.  McCormick ousted Ritz.  The state superintendent race was on no one's radar, not even on those of the biggest Hoosier political nerds.  You gotta give it to them for their discipline and organization.
4. The fact that the Dems were able to pick up seats in the state legislature, including a state senate seat (!), was an amazing feat in and of itself.  An openly gay man defeated one of the chief architects of RFRA!  
5. Indiana Republicans should feel good about themselves, but they shouldn't rest on their laurels.  Statewide races can be elastic, especially if the economy slows down in 2020 or things go wrong in the statehouse.

Now, in terms of 2020...

I see a nearly nonexistent path to victory for any Democrat who wants to win the gubernatorial race.  Trump will be at the top of the ticket, and Holcomb is very popular.  Other than Pete Buttigieg, I don't see anyone who can make the race even remotely competitive.

The State Superintendent of Public Instruction might be winnable, but it depends on who's running.

The Indystar ran a very good article, IMO, detailing the state party's woes:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/11/indiana-democrats-flailing-after-midterm-election-results-and-how-they-might-start-winning/1929499002/

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Essentially, it's the same tired story in the other statewide races that we witnessed in 2018, from Stacey Abrams in Georgia to Beto O'Rourke in Texas to Claire McCaskill in Missouri: The rural voters that were once reliable blue dog voters are now all pretty much Republican.  The Dems are becoming the party of the cities and suburbs.

So, this will be the thread to discuss all things related to Hoosier elections, from the municipal races next year to any special elections that come up to the gubernatorial and row office elections in 2020 to any Trump rallies that might be held here to all elections beyond.

Let's talk!

[libertpaulian]

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 

They're more like the WOW counties, but they are slowly trending D.  Donnelly lost Hamilton County, which was once hailed as a bastion of suburban conservatism, by a mere 11,000 votes, a significant chunk of which I'm sure were from the more rural northern part of the county.

[libertpaulian]

Are Indianapolis suburbs more conservative than other "comparable" suburbs? 

Yes. But they’re still moving left like other suburbs. The Indiana Dems shouldn’t aim at winning Hamilton County outright as much as trying to dent Republican marginsnthere. The goal here is trying to get core Dem voters in the big cities and college towns to turn out.

Bingo.  The only way a Dem presidential candidate is winning Hamilton County is if they're winning Indiana.

[libertpaulian]

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.

The fact that Donnelly was able to keep his loss in HamCo to single digits portends well for Democrats there in the future.

[libertpaulian]

I'm willing to bet that next time a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana (whenever that may be), they're carrying Hamilton County by more than the state as a whole.

This is basically certain
Donnell ran a campaign catering to rural hicks yet Hamilton was 2 points right of the state of the whole. If he went after Hamilton voters and other suburbian areas he might have won.

Yeah, in retrospect it is pretty obvious that Donnelly/McCaskill should've focused their entire strategies on flipping counties like Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Allen, St. Charles, Greene, Platte, etc.

It might not have been enough to win, but I bet they would've gotten closer than they actually did.

The fact that Donnelly was able to keep his loss in HamCo to single digits portends well for Democrats there in the future.

Its impressive considering his entire campaign was pandering to hicks in Vigo by doing stuff like build the wall. Vigo is useless now go for hamilton.

Vigo used to be the bellwether county for the nation.  I think that will start to become less of the case as the cycles go by.

[libertpaulian]

Dems should go after Susan Brooks. Her district contains the most Romney-Clinton voters by far. She’d be much easier to unseat than Walorski or Hollingsworth IMO.

Dee Thornton had absolutely no money, yet was able to garner 43% of the vote against Brooks.  That's the best performance for an IN-05 Dem in recent memory.

[libertpaulian]

I have a dear friend who lives in Brooks's district and would be delighted to see her go down.

I think Indiana's political geography has been ground zero for a realignment of American political cleavages away from both material issues and "classic" social issues and towards 1. degree of formal education and 2. level of comfort with the outside world. I say this not to cast aspersions on either side of this new cleavage but to try to define it in as morally neutral a way as possible.

Based on Indiana's geography and various regional cultures, I agree with you 100%.

[libertpaulian]

Hoosier Republicans are lining up to pass a hate crimes bill:

https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2018/11/15/sen-ron-alting-follows-up-indiana-hate-crime-bill-promise/2011768002/

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This is pretty significant.  A bill of this nature almost passed the session earlier this year, but a couple of obstructionists got in the way, and it never even made it to a vote.  Let's hope 2019 is the year.

[libertpaulian]

The Indiana General Assembly's 2019 Session has begun, and new legislators have been sworn in!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-lawmakers-convene-tuesday-for-ceremonial-opening-of-new-legislative/article_9e5ac708-d0d5-5bdf-9e5d-df77994e9930.html

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[libertpaulian]

Not sure why you think Buttigieg would run. He has national aspirations when any moron could tell you he has no chance. Really if he was going to run for anything it would've been Jackie Walorski's congressional seat.

Who else do the Democrats have?  Gregg is a perennial loser, Hale doesn't have any statewide appeal (at least as far as I know), Hogsett is DOA given Indy's crime problem, and Donnelly sure as hell isn't going to run statewide a mere two years after he lost a statewide race.  Mayor Pete is the only one with any semblance of a chance.  He isn't going to run in IN-02 given he doesn't come off as the legislative type.

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Gregg would probably be better suited running for AG against Hill or Congress against Bucshon.  He'd definitely be an asset on the campaign trail, though, given how Dems have been collapsing in Southern Indiana over the past decade.  

Why Donnelly?

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Donnelly did a little better in NE Indiana than usual, but I was mainly talking about the two areas that should be the Dems' bread-and-butter no matter what: The Region and Marion County.  Compare the statistics to 2012...if Donnelly would have gotten his 2012 numbers in those areas, he would have prevailed.

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Congratulations!  

[libertpaulian]

Looks like State Senator Jim Merritt is all in for the Indy Mayor Race:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/09/jim-merritt-expected-challenge-joe-hogsett-indianapolis-mayor/2529883002/

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This GOP primary will be particularly interesting.  Assuming that Merritt wins the primary and ousts Hogsett (which I highly doubt, given the anti-GOP fever that's swept the nation, especially in major metro areas), there'd be an empty state senate seat.  And given that Merritt was re-elected this past November by a mere 1600 votes, the special election to fill his seat will be one to watch.  For those in this thread who don't know, Merritt's seat covers parts of eastern Fishers, as well as a chunk of northeastern Indianapolis, which demonstrates the nationwide anti-Trump/anti-GOP suburban trend.

[libertpaulian]

From Howey:

Donnelly not interested in challenging Gov. Holcomb in 2020

"I am not looking at any other races." - Former senator Joe Donnelly after Howey Politics Indiana asked him in today's HPI Interview at the University of Notre Dame if he was considering a challenge in 2020 to Gov. Eric Holcomb. Asked if he would rule anything out politically in the future, Donnelly responded, "I’m just lucky to have a chance to teach here and I’m trying to get my snow blower going these days."  Donnelly lost to U.S. Sen. Mike Braun in 2018, ending a 12 year career in Congress. Currently there isn't an Indiana Democrat expressing public interest in challenging Holcomb. One Democratic insider told HPI the party may opt for a "placeholder" nominee while mounting a serious challenge to embattled Republican Attorney General Curtis Hill.

This is definitely the Dems' best game plan going forward.  Win back some row offices and gain some more seats in the state legislature and start building up a bench for 2022 and beyond.

[libertpaulian]

Mayor Pete has qualified for the debates!

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Thanks-donors-Mayor-Pete-says-hes-in-presidential-debates-507267061.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (BOO'-tuh-juhj) says he's met a fundraising threshold to participate in this summer's debates.

The South Bend, Indiana, mayor said on Saturday he received donations from more than 65,000 individual donors.

The Democratic National Committee said last month up to 20 candidates can qualify for the debates by collecting donations from at least 65,000 individuals, with at least 200 unique donors in at least 20 states. They also can qualify by reaching 1 percent support in at least three national or early primary state polls.

In an email to supporters Buttigieg says "we weren't even close" to 65,000 donors when the DNC announced the requirement. The 37-year-old veteran says more than 76,000 people have now donated.

The debates will be held in June and July.

This is going to be an interesting campaign!

[libertpaulian]

AG Curtis Hill faces ethical complaints, which could cost him his law license...and his elected position:

https://www.wthr.com/article/supreme-court-disciplinary-commission-files-complaint-against-ag-curtis-hill

INDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - The Indiana Supreme Court's Disciplinary Commission filed a disciplinary complaint against Attorney General Curtis Hill Tuesday morning.

Four women, including State Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon, accused Hill of sexually harassing and groping them at a party celebrating the end of the 2018 legislative session last March.

In Tuesday's complaint, the Commission said Hill "engaged in a pattern of misconduct" and "committed criminal acts, each of which reflects adversely on his honesty, trustworthiness or fitness as a lawyer," among other issues that violate the state's Rules of Professional Conduct for Attorneys at Law.

This is YUGE news. 

If he gets disbarred or has his law license suspended, I could see him primarying Holcomb in a way to exact revenge on the INGOP for not standing by him.

[libertpaulian]

McDermott LOL

I'm literally next door to Hammond.  Being mayor of a post-industrial micro-city is a cursed job.  He wouldn't do well outside Da Region, South Bend, Indy, and Bloomington.

[libertpaulian]

Howey's May 24 editorial floats former Indiana health commissioner Wayne Myers and State Rep. Karlee Macer as potential Democratic nominees for governor in 2020:

https://www.wthr.com/article/howey-gov-holcomb-and-new-wave-democrats

Gov. Orr selected Myers as health commissioner in 1985 and he made national headlines defending young Ryan White, an AIDS victim from Kokomo. As commissioner, he would work graveyard shifts in the Wishard Hospital E.R. to stay patched in to the street. New York City Mayor David Dinkins named him health commissioner in 1990 at the height of the AIDS pandemic. Myers has also served as executive vice president and chief medical officer at Anthem, and the director of health care management at Ford Motor Company.

With Indiana grappling with a public health crisis involving AIDS, methamphetamine, opioids and heroin, Myers' resume matches up to the challenge. “Everything is connected to health,” Myers said. “It’s the one thing we have in common.”

Rep. Macer is a rare Hoosier Democrat who actually has won a GOP district, which was about 54 percent Republican when she won the open seat in 2012. She won re-election by 560 votes in 2014, by 5,020 in 2016 when she out-performed Hillary Clinton significantly, and was unopposed last year. She’s a former PTO president at Ben Davis High School, and has been active in veteran affairs and with foster families. “I’ve enjoyed the pleasure of serving in many capacities and to have this opportunity is really important,” Macer said. “I’m being very serious about it.”

She’s also willing to bluntly critique Holcomb, particularly after $775,000 of Department Veterans Affairs funds were misspent. “It looks like the fox is watching the hen house,” Macer said.

Neither Myers nor Macer believe a contested primary would be good for the party. “We’re sorting it out now,” Macer said. “I definitely think for Democrats, it’s important for all of us to come together.”

Myers recalls the bitter 2008 primary race between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger and said of a nomination battle, “I hope there is not, but if there is, I’ll have to deal with it. Most party leaders would prefer a consensus.”

lol, the IN Dems may as well run a circus clown for governor and call it a day.  They should focus their resources on flipping some state legislative seats, defending their 2018 gains, and flipping the AG's office (now that the state school superintendent will be an appointed position).

[libertpaulian]

A 3rd individual, State Senator Eddie Melton from the Region, put his name in as "just exploring" for the Governor's race.

Should point out the last time the Democrats had a contested statewide primary for Governor or Senator was 2008.

Eddie Melton?  LMFAO.

[libertpaulian]

Is John Gregg running again??


Wouldn't be shocked if he did, and he could keep it within 5 or 6

No, no, it wouldn't be close this time, Gregg would be crushed, Holcomb has a 60/20 approval rate, I would be really surprised if the democratic candidate loses by less than 20 points

Not to mention voters get sick of perennial candidates eventually.

[libertpaulian]

🚨🚨🚨HALE IN🚨🚨🚨

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/11/christina-hale-enters-indiana-5th-district-congressional-race/1691643001/

Former Democratic state Rep. Christina Hale is officially running to fill Susan Brooks' 5th Congressional District seat.

Hale, who was John Gregg's running mate during his 2016 gubernatorial campaign, is a favorite among party insiders who think she has a shot at switching a historically red district to blue.

While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hasn't endorsed her, the campaign arm reached out to Hale about running, even as early as 2018.

"This is an opportunity that I've been interested in because it's an opportunity to serve," Hale, 47, told IndyStar on Wednesday. "And I think people are ready for someone who really cares about these practical issues, someone who really cares about Hoosier families, and will be focused on things that make the difference to everyday people, like healthcare, like education opportunity."

Well, this race got more interesting.

[libertpaulian]

Rokita is considering making a return to the Statehouse still (former Secretary of State) and running for Attorney General. He was beside Holcomb when Holcomb made his reelect campaign official. 

I think the Kavanaugh Effect might doom Rokita's prospects.  In another political climate, he'd have a chance, but Hill might end up having the bigger base.

[libertpaulian]

The ethics investigation prior to AG Hill's disciplinary hearing is getting LIT:

https://www.abc57.com/news/court-grants-curtis-hill-access-to-state-inspector-generals-records

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill's lawyers have won their fight for records of the state inspector general's investigation into allegations that Hill drunkenly groped four women.

Hill's attorneys sought the records as they defend him in attorney disciplinary proceedings he faces that could lead to his disbarment as a lawyer.

Former state Supreme Court Justice Myra Selby is the hearing officer for Hill's case. She ruled that Hill's lawyers had shown they couldn't obtain from another source the information contained in the inspector general's report.

[libertpaulian]

If Mayor Pete is the nominee, I could see Hamilton being UBER close.

[libertpaulian]

Looks like Holcomb is facing a primary challenge.

https://www.ibj.com/articles/carmel-republican-plans-to-run-against-holcomb

A Hamilton County Republican is planning to run for governor against incumbent Eric Holcomb.

Brian Roth, a Carmel resident and president of a consulting and leadership development firm called Employment 2 Deployment LLC, has filed paperwork to create a committee to run for governor.

According to Roth’s LinkedIn profile, he graduated from Taylor University in 1988 with a degree in physics and served in the U.S. Navy for 24 years.

Roth declined to comment, saying he would discuss his reasons for running after posting a video formally announcing the campaign in the next week or so.

Roth is the only Republican who has taken official steps to challenge Holcomb, who is favored to win re-election. Democrat Woody Myers and Libertarian Bill Levin also are running for governor.

I don't see this going anywhere, but then again, Garland Tucker is giving Thom Tillis a run for his money over in NC.  Stranger things have happened.

[libertpaulian]

If the Indiana GOP was smart, they'd refuse to re-nominate Hill.  But...the Indiana GOP is so drunk on power right now, holding all row offices, the Governorship, both Senate seats, and 7/9 Congressional seats, that they think he'll be invincible. 

Let's see who the Indiana Dems can put forward.  Realistically speaking the AG's office is their only real shot at any sort of statewide victory for quite a while.

Oh...and MCDERMOTT running for Congress?!  LOL.

[libertpaulian]

Thoughts on South Bend?  I honestly feel the state of Buttigieg's candidacy pre-Iowa hinges on which guy ultimately wins.