The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mayor Pete has qualified for the debates!

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Thanks-donors-Mayor-Pete-says-hes-in-presidential-debates-507267061.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (BOO'-tuh-juhj) says he's met a fundraising threshold to participate in this summer's debates.

The South Bend, Indiana, mayor said on Saturday he received donations from more than 65,000 individual donors.

The Democratic National Committee said last month up to 20 candidates can qualify for the debates by collecting donations from at least 65,000 individuals, with at least 200 unique donors in at least 20 states. They also can qualify by reaching 1 percent support in at least three national or early primary state polls.

In an email to supporters Buttigieg says "we weren't even close" to 65,000 donors when the DNC announced the requirement. The 37-year-old veteran says more than 76,000 people have now donated.

The debates will be held in June and July.

This is going to be an interesting campaign!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Jim Brainard, the incumbent mayor of Carmel, won his primary yesterday by the narrowest margin of his career (55–45%); his opponent campaigned against the city's $1.3 million in debt and the mayor's advancing age (Brainard will be 69 in 2023 at the end of his seventh consecutive term in office). Brainard was co-chair of Kasich's 2016 campaign in Indiana, has been active in promoting measures to address climate change, taking part in the Task Force on Climate Preparedness during the Obama years, and successfully lobbied the city council to adopt an anti-discrimination ordinance in the aftermath of RFRA. In recent years, he has not faced an opponent outside the primary, though with Hamilton County Democrats building strength in recent years that may not be true this cycle.

The Democrats will field candidates for City Council in the general election for the first time in decades; while no Democrats filed to run against Brainard in November, it's possible the party will nominate a sacrificial lamb for the general election. Recently, the Hamilton County Democratic Party has petitioned county officials to investigate claims that Brainard or his opponent offered or solicited bribes in exchange for keeping the latter from running in the primary, which may indicate an intent to challenge the former this fall.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Howey's May 24 editorial floats former Indiana health commissioner Wayne Myers and State Rep. Karlee Macer as potential Democratic nominees for governor in 2020:

https://www.wthr.com/article/howey-gov-holcomb-and-new-wave-democrats

Gov. Orr selected Myers as health commissioner in 1985 and he made national headlines defending young Ryan White, an AIDS victim from Kokomo. As commissioner, he would work graveyard shifts in the Wishard Hospital E.R. to stay patched in to the street. New York City Mayor David Dinkins named him health commissioner in 1990 at the height of the AIDS pandemic. Myers has also served as executive vice president and chief medical officer at Anthem, and the director of health care management at Ford Motor Company.

With Indiana grappling with a public health crisis involving AIDS, methamphetamine, opioids and heroin, Myers' resume matches up to the challenge. “Everything is connected to health,” Myers said. “It’s the one thing we have in common.”

Rep. Macer is a rare Hoosier Democrat who actually has won a GOP district, which was about 54 percent Republican when she won the open seat in 2012. She won re-election by 560 votes in 2014, by 5,020 in 2016 when she out-performed Hillary Clinton significantly, and was unopposed last year. She’s a former PTO president at Ben Davis High School, and has been active in veteran affairs and with foster families. “I’ve enjoyed the pleasure of serving in many capacities and to have this opportunity is really important,” Macer said. “I’m being very serious about it.”

She’s also willing to bluntly critique Holcomb, particularly after $775,000 of Department Veterans Affairs funds were misspent. “It looks like the fox is watching the hen house,” Macer said.

Neither Myers nor Macer believe a contested primary would be good for the party. “We’re sorting it out now,” Macer said. “I definitely think for Democrats, it’s important for all of us to come together.”

Myers recalls the bitter 2008 primary race between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger and said of a nomination battle, “I hope there is not, but if there is, I’ll have to deal with it. Most party leaders would prefer a consensus.”

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Hamilton County will not vote for a Democrat—any Democrat—in 2020, regardless of the margin statewide. Even a hypothetical win for Hale in IN-5 will involve running up the margin in Marion County and losing Hamilton by less than ten percent. Contrary to the impressionist landscape Jimmie is painting, Hamilton is not just wealthy suburbs and trying to pass it off as akin to, say, NoVA is questionable at best. Also, Republicans in Hamilton County aren't necessarily "moderate" in comparison to the rest of the state —for every Republican like Brainard, there is a Mike Delph ready to carry the banner of the pro-Trump religious right in the county. I expect it to continue to slide leftward over the next decade or so, and it's plausible to argue the next Democratic statewide victory will see Hamilton County turn blue, but that's in expectation that Democrats won't be competitive statewide again for ten to twenty years or more. In the extremely unlikely event Hill falls in 2020, it won't be because his Democratic challenger carried Hamilton County —but we'll never see proof of that, because Hill is going to be reelected unless the State Republican convention topples him.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

If Mayor Pete is the nominee, I could see Hamilton being UBER close.

If Buttigieg somehow ends up leading the Dem ticket nationally, I wouldn't be surprised to see him match or even slightly improve on Donnelly's numbers in Hamilton County. Sadly, it doesn't look like we'll know for sure this round.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

A very exciting night for Hamilton County Dems! To celebrate, I've made a map of preliminary results of the Carmel municipal elections, by city council district. The two GOP>90% districts in the lower right hand corner were uncontested.

It's not the prettiest creation on these boards, but nonetheless:   



Miles Nelson, who will represent the new West District (extreme left), is the first Carmel Democrat to ever be elected to municipal office. Four years ago, the general election was cancelled because the GOP candidates were all unopposed.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The Carmel city council elections again, this time by precinct (and with neater lines). Nelson won every precinct in Carmel West and fell just short of 60% in several, but the strongest precinct for the Dems of the 12 they carried was Mowhawk Hills (a neighborhood within walking distance of downtown Carmel). Meanwhile, the strongest GOP precinct in a contested district was Woodfield, which borders the city of Westfield to the north.

The three GOP > 60% precincts in Carmel North are the oldest section of the neighborhood centered around Our Lady of Mount Carmel; if they're subtracted from the district total, the incumbent Republican councilor wins reelection by 186 votes (the actual margin in the district was 273). Mount Carmel 2, comprising the new section, voted for the Democratic candidate by a single vote, 109 to 108.

Given the evident west/east divide, it will be interesting to see how the precincts west of Illinois Street in the uncontested Southeast district vote in 2020.

(1)

Precinct boundary map taken from the official city website (link).



(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

For reference, the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Carmel, by precinct:

(1)


(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

that now makes 12 years and counting since the Democrats had a contested primary on a statewide ballot that was not the presidency

Well, there's certainly no reason for Democrats to reconsider their statewide strategy! Zody is a genius.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

lolololol

IN Dems are so screwed.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

Plus you had Ritz win her race, which was a sufficiently big deal for the GOP to decide there must never be another election for SoPI again.

Honestly, if 2016 hadn't been such a curveball, I still maintain Gregg could have won —and I imagine he'd be the favorite for reelection in this climate. That would have given the party eight years to build up their bench for 2024. Instead, it looks like Dems are headed to being a permanent minority party, at least until demographics shift enough/some young up-and-comer steps forward to rebuild the statewide organization.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

Plus you had Ritz win her race, which was a sufficiently big deal for the GOP to decide there must never be another election for SoPI again.

Honestly, if 2016 hadn't been such a curveball, I still maintain Gregg could have won —and I imagine he'd be the favorite for reelection in this climate. That would have given the party eight years to build up their bench for 2024. Instead, it looks like Dems are headed to being a permanent minority party, at least until demographics shift enough/some young up-and-comer steps forward to rebuild the statewide organization.

Do you think it's possible there could be a pickup of a significant number of state legislative seats?

I was looking through the state house (not state senate) districts on Ballotpedia, and a LOT of these GOPers in the Indy Metro won by 10% or less in 2016 and/or 2018.  These could be ripe dummymaners this fall.

My expectations are very low given the state of the statewide races; but if I'm being cautiously optimistic, Democrats should be putting all of their resources into defeating House Republicans' supermajority if they want to have any kind of a silver lining this cycle. Given what we saw in last year's municipal elections, there's no excuse for Dems to not make significant gains here. Of course, in the end it will depend on whether the local parties are up to the task.

Hamilton County Dems have been more bullish in their communications of late, FWIW. The email I got yesterday seeking candidates for county-level office made it clear they think they have a decent chance of flipping some offices and are looking for quality wave insurance. We'll see if that turns out to be justified.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The problem with IN-05 is that it will be fairly easy to reverse the 2010 boundary changes that made it even remotely competitive in the first place and turn it back into a safe-GOP seat after this round of redistricting. Flipping IN-02 would require a landslide the likes of which hasn't been seen in living memory. As StateBoiler says, people here just don't like what the Dems are selling. (It doesn't help that the state party thinks we are still living in the late 80s.) Democrats won't win here again until the voters change, which may well be decades into the future.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The problem with IN-05 is that it will be fairly easy to reverse the 2010 boundary changes that made it even remotely competitive in the first place and turn it back into a safe-GOP seat after this round of redistricting. Flipping IN-02 would require a landslide the likes of which hasn't been seen in living memory. As StateBoiler says, people here just don't like what the Dems are selling. (It doesn't help that the state party thinks we are still living in the late 80s.) Democrats won't win here again until the voters change, which may well be decades into the future.

What do you mean by living in the late 80s?  That they still think Southern Indiana is full of Blue Dogs just waiting for The Right Kind of Democrat™ to win them over?

Yes. Donnelly's "vote for me to stop the radical left" pitch from 2018 seemed especially targeted at this (non-existant) demographic.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

You could of filed to be Lt. Governor Truman and Libertpolitian if you are around 30.  

I'm 30!  I turn 31 on July 11.

The problem with IN-05 is that it will be fairly easy to reverse the 2010 boundary changes that made it even remotely competitive in the first place and turn it back into a safe-GOP seat after this round of redistricting. Flipping IN-02 would require a landslide the likes of which hasn't been seen in living memory. As StateBoiler says, people here just don't like what the Dems are selling. (It doesn't help that the state party thinks we are still living in the late 80s.) Democrats won't win here again until the voters change, which may well be decades into the future.

What do you mean by living in the late 80s?  That they still think Southern Indiana is full of Blue Dogs just waiting for The Right Kind of Democrat™ to win them over?

Yes. Donnelly's "vote for me to stop the radical left" pitch from 2018 seemed especially targeted at this (non-existant) demographic.

Donnelly would have been better served with a suburban strategy and much more muscular minority outreach.

It would be cool if you somehow became Lt. Governor of the non existent Myers ticket, because you would be the first Atlas poster to be a Lt. Governor in a ticket, and imagine what the IN DNC would think of you, a libertarian Democrat as a Lt. Governor.

Thanks for the word of encouragement!  But...elected office isn't exactly something that suits me, heh.

That's exactly the right attitude for Myers' running mate to have!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.

(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.

(1) Source: Own work.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.

(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.

(1) Source: Own work.

Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?

Atlas colors, of course! I am not a godless heathen.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.

(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.

(1) Source: Own work.

Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?

Atlas colors, of course! I am not a godless heathen.

Carmel definitely looks like it's going to go D citywide in the near future.

Braun carried the city by 17 votes in 2018. If Biden wins the PV by anywhere near the margin he's leading in national polls right now, I would not be even remotely surprised to see Carmel go Atlas-red this cycle. Otherwise, I expect we'll see the first Democratic presidential majority within the decade, either in 2024 or 2028, depending on how those cycles turn out.

Interestingly, despite the narrative that wealthy suburbanites are fueling the growing Democratic advantage, it is —for the most part —the (relatively) modest to lower-middle class neighborhoods in East Carmel that have proved most susceptible to Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, while the wealthiest precincts remain more or less solidly in the Republican column. (Granted what is "poor" in Carmel is nevertheless well above the poverty line, but still.)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Any news on the AG Convention today? Weinzapfel seems like the strongest candidate, but the race is only winnable if Hill is nominated again

According to this, results will be available Thursday once the state committee finishes counting mail-in ballots.

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Are there any major differences between Carmel and Fishers or not really?

They're pretty similar in the important ways.

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Sad to hear the bad news. Looks life Weinzapfel might not win this after all.

I'm glad Rokita won, it means no matter what happens in the GE, IN won't have a sex predator as it's AG.  That's the most important thing here.

Considering Weinzapfel's chances were always slim, even against Hill, I tend to agree.

Snapshot from the fundraising email I got yesterday:

When you can't even get your mailing list to care about your one statewide pickup opportunity ...

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Wow! Obviously these numbers are ridiculous, but at least the debate will be exciting. (Also kind-of hilarious that even with 1/3 of Trump voters going to Rainwater, Woody "Who?" Myers still can't manage to lead Holcomb in a poll.)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Those are really good numbers for Biden if true. If he's only losing Indiana by 8%, it's very likely Hale is winning IN-5. Rainwater at 14% also suggests a large number of Biden voters going to Holcomb: maybe Dems could have won the governorship after all (or at least kept it close) if they'd run a competent nominee.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Zody is gone!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Interesting tidbit about the presidential race:

https://twitter.com/nickroberts317/status/1324534892064055298

Don't have time to make an official map right now, but what's interesting to me is how evenly distributed Biden's win in Carmel was compared to recent Dem performances. In 2018 you saw support for Braun and Donnelly break down along predictable east-west lines; ditto for the 2019 municipal races. That pattern definitely still persists in some places, notably in the conservative Catholic areas of northwest Carmel and the wealthy neighborhoods along Spring Mill Road; but overall Biden did very well, flipping precincts Braun won in central and east Carmel (a traditional Republican stronghold) while maintaining the Dem advantage west of Ditch Road we've seen in recent elections. Notably very few precincts went for either candidate by >60%. Bottom line, Biden didn't just win Carmel by running up the margins in left-leaning areas; he won the city. Republican victories in downballot races, most notably in IN-39, which is made up almost entirely of the city of Carmel and will send Jerry Torr back to the State House with a reduced but still substantial majority, prove there is still much work to be done; but Democrats have every right to be encouraged by this result.