The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1688661799892119552?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

[NewYorkExpress]

Former Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers has entered the race.

After months of speculation, former Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers has officially entered the Republican primary for governor.

He stepped down from his post Aug. 6 as commerce secretary and head of the Indiana Economic Development Corp. Thursday, he joins a packed race that includes Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, former Attorney General Curtis Hill and another former head of the IEDC, Eric Doden.

"As Indiana's Secretary of Commerce, the last two years, I have witnessed firsthand how important leadership, vision, urgency and aspiration are to the future of Indiana," Chambers said in a news release. "I am running for Governor because I want Hoosiers of today and Hoosiers of tomorrow to believe that Indiana offers an opportunity for an excellent life."

[Nickelodeon PAC]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4288516-trump-endorses-braun-run-indiana-governor/

Trump endorsed Braun.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4288516-trump-endorses-braun-run-indiana-governor/

Trump endorsed Braun.

Bad news for Hill, maybe Doden slightly. Crouch and Chambers I don't think their voters were reflexively Trump to start with.

[Flyersfan232]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4288516-trump-endorses-braun-run-indiana-governor/

Trump endorsed Braun.

i am sure this was made out of pure policy agreement and not because braun is leaading the polls

[Utah Neolib]

Is Braun significantly favored over Crouch?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Is Braun significantly favored over Crouch?

Yes.

Crouch's prospects took a nosedive when the Holcomb/Hupfer wing backed Brad Chambers over her. The reason why still has not come out.

It's a 5-way primary at the moment also including Curtis Hill and Eric Doden. I still feel when we get to actual filing there won't be 5 candidates.

[pabloni21]

do you guys think the gubernatorial contest could be at least mildly competitive?

[pabloni21]

honestly i’m not much of a libertarian party of indiana fan lmao but i do definitely think there’s gonna be some eyes on them. i wonder how Rainwater’s gonna do - god, it’d be hilarious if in Indiana of all states becomes some kind of a sleeper tossup because of the libertarians. 11% is crazy - thoughts on whether they’ll do better or not?

[pabloni21]

well since it appears nobody else is here to speak i guess i still have the floor…

something i’ve noticed when thinking about all the elections i’ve lived through is that… i have never seen a single candidate campaigning where i live. like ever. i’ve met politicians, and paged for my state senator, but on campaign? jack sh**t. where is everyone in this state? this year had my town council elections, and the most i saw from any candidate was one piece of mail in the only contested primary. but, like, even if your seat is uncontested, the least you could do is keep in touch with constituents. show up. maybe i just didn’t walk around enough but i saw nothing in terms of basic retail politics. why does nobody care about even their own elections? it honestly kinda pisses me off.

[Open Source Intelligence]

do you guys think the gubernatorial contest could be at least mildly competitive?

General? No. Diego Morales getting 54% is the Republican floor statewide until something changes. And Democrats' ceiling might be 42%.

Primary? It can be. It'll be Braun and someone. Not sure who the someone is. Still early days.

McCormick running is the 2nd punt in a row from the Democrats on the Governor's race. She'll do better than Woody Myers simply because it would be hard to do worse, but she was a Republican until 2018/19. Democrats won't improve statewide until they stop losing more than half the states' counties 70-30. Even if they gain suburban Hamilton (Carmel), they're losing Lake, so in the end that's all a wash.

I think Democrats will put more time and money into Destiny Wells in the Attorney General race vs. probably Todd Rokita. They did this strategy in 2020 as well hoping to run against Curtis Hill and Republicans ousted Hill at their Convention. Rumors out there the same fate might befall Rokita at the Convention. Running against Rokita is a lot more up the modern Democratic Party's wheelhouse than the Governor race.

[Tekken_Guy]

do you guys think the gubernatorial contest could be at least mildly competitive?

General? No. Diego Morales getting 54% is the Republican floor statewide until something changes. And Democrats' ceiling might be 42%.

Primary? It can be. It'll be Braun and someone. Not sure who the someone is. Still early days.

McCormick running is the 2nd punt in a row from the Democrats on the Governor's race. She'll do better than Woody Myers simply because it would be hard to do worse, but she was a Republican until 2018/19. Democrats won't improve statewide until they stop losing more than half the states' counties 70-30. Even if they gain suburban Hamilton (Carmel), they're losing Lake, so in the end that's all a wash.

I think Democrats will put more time and money into Destiny Wells in the Attorney General race vs. probably Todd Rokita. They did this strategy in 2020 as well hoping to run against Curtis Hill and Republicans ousted Hill at their Convention. Rumors out there the same fate might befall Rokita at the Convention. Running against Rokita is a lot more up the modern Democratic Party's wheelhouse than the Governor race.

I don’t see any way Democrats lose Lake if they win Hamilton.

[Open Source Intelligence]

do you guys think the gubernatorial contest could be at least mildly competitive?

General? No. Diego Morales getting 54% is the Republican floor statewide until something changes. And Democrats' ceiling might be 42%.

Primary? It can be. It'll be Braun and someone. Not sure who the someone is. Still early days.

McCormick running is the 2nd punt in a row from the Democrats on the Governor's race. She'll do better than Woody Myers simply because it would be hard to do worse, but she was a Republican until 2018/19. Democrats won't improve statewide until they stop losing more than half the states' counties 70-30. Even if they gain suburban Hamilton (Carmel), they're losing Lake, so in the end that's all a wash.

I think Democrats will put more time and money into Destiny Wells in the Attorney General race vs. probably Todd Rokita. They did this strategy in 2020 as well hoping to run against Curtis Hill and Republicans ousted Hill at their Convention. Rumors out there the same fate might befall Rokita at the Convention. Running against Rokita is a lot more up the modern Democratic Party's wheelhouse than the Governor race.

I don’t see any way Democrats lose Lake if they win Hamilton.

They don't have to lose it, their winning margin they carry from it is going down. And this party can't win more than 6 counties statewide at present out of 92, so the ones they do win they need massive vote margins from if the Democrats are going to continue to be completely dead in rural/small town/midsized city/former union city Indiana.

[pabloni21]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

[Open Source Intelligence]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

There are counties Democrats to win statewide absolutely should win and they just don't. Allen (it's ridiculous to me the Democratic County Party in Fort Wayne is a joke with a rotating door of county chairs that usually can't make it 2 years, compared to the Republicans who have had only 2 chairs 1961 onwards), Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, Clark, Madison, Delaware, Hendricks, Hamilton, maybe Bartholomew, all of the Region, not just Lake County. If they can do that and improve their losing margins in rural counties to be not near as wide, then you can maybe put a plan together.

[pabloni21]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

There are counties Democrats to win statewide absolutely should win and they just don't. Allen (it's ridiculous to me the Democratic County Party in Fort Wayne is a joke with a rotating door of county chairs that usually can't make it 2 years, compared to the Republicans who have had only 2 chairs 1961 onwards), Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, Clark, Madison, Delaware, Hendricks, Hamilton, maybe Bartholomew, all of the Region, not just Lake County. If they can do that and improve their losing margins in rural counties to be not near as wide, then you can maybe put a plan together.

alright, then, i will!

[SnowLabrador]

It's over. Rural areas are not voting for Democrats, period. Nobody who's dug this deep into the QAnon Koolaid will vote blue.

[pabloni21]

It's over. Rural areas are not voting for Democrats, period. Nobody who's dug this deep into the QAnon Koolaid will vote blue.

for now, perhaps…

but it’s never joever in the long term

[gerritcole]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

No state is forever lost but the fact that the most talented dem pol since bayh, buttigeieg, had to carpetbag to Michigan for a future is a telling sign

[Open Source Intelligence]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

No state is forever lost but the fact that the most talented dem pol since bayh, buttigeieg, had to carpetbag to Michigan for a future is a telling sign

Donnelly defeated Richard Mourdock statewide. Buttigieg lost to him statewide by 17 points.

I've never understood what made Pete Buttigieg special compared to say Tom Henry. Comparing mayor to mayor, Henry's accomplishments were arguably better in a city twice South Bend's size that didn't have the advantage of having Notre Dame inside city limits. If Henry ran for President people would've laughed at him.

[gerritcole]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

No state is forever lost but the fact that the most talented dem pol since bayh, buttigeieg, had to carpetbag to Michigan for a future is a telling sign

Donnelly defeated Richard Mourdock statewide. Buttigieg lost to him statewide by 17 points.

I've never understood what made Pete Buttigieg special compared to say Tom Henry. Comparing mayor to mayor, Henry's accomplishments were arguably better in a city twice South Bend's size that didn't have the advantage of having Notre Dame inside city limits. If Henry ran for President people would've laughed at him.

im active on atlas putting me in the top 0.1% of politically knowledgeable people in the country and i have no clue who tom henry is so that says something

buttigieg's accomplushments are irrelevant, he catapulted from being a small time mayor into a cabinet positioin via charisma, being gay, compelling story, etc. typically he would have gone for gov or something but thats infeasible in IN hence the move to michigan.

donnelly got lucky with mourdock and not lugar and that level of ticket splitting may not happen again, irrespective of whatever mourdock said

[Open Source Intelligence]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

No state is forever lost but the fact that the most talented dem pol since bayh, buttigeieg, had to carpetbag to Michigan for a future is a telling sign

Donnelly defeated Richard Mourdock statewide. Buttigieg lost to him statewide by 17 points.

I've never understood what made Pete Buttigieg special compared to say Tom Henry. Comparing mayor to mayor, Henry's accomplishments were arguably better in a city twice South Bend's size that didn't have the advantage of having Notre Dame inside city limits. If Henry ran for President people would've laughed at him.

im active on atlas putting me in the top 0.1% of politically knowledgeable people in the country and i have no clue who tom henry is so that says something

Been Mayor of Fort Wayne for 16 years coinciding with Buttigieg's time as Mayor of South Bend. Is a Democrat. Unlike Buttigieg is straight and older. Fort Wayne is right down the road from South Bend and they're kinda sorta sister cities. Is twice South Bend's size. Has had a renaissance of sorts more impressive than South Bend's physically being in both cities walking around.

buttigieg's accomplushments are irrelevant, he catapulted from being a small time mayor into a cabinet positioin via charisma, being gay, compelling story, etc.

I'm glad we have such high standards for how people in this country how people can become serious candidates for President and be Cabinet secretaries. You can have charisma, be gay, and have a compelling story. That's right up some pro wrestlers' alleyways. More of them should get into politics. They might have no idea how the hell to do the job, but in this era that doesn't matter.

2012 U.S. Senate election in Indiana

Joe Donnelly (Dem) 1,281,181 50.04%
Richard Mourdock (Rep) 1,133,621 44.28%
Andy Horning (Libt) 145,282 5.68%

2010 State Treasurer election in Indiana

Richard Mourdock (Rep) 1,053,527 62.5%
Pete Buttigieg (Dem) 633,243 37.5%

Buttigieg won 4 counties. He did not win his home county of St. Joseph. And at the time of this election the Democratic statewide floor support was 37%, which Buttigieg got. Most talented Democratic politician since Bayh my ass. If he was that talented, he would have not gotten all the blacks (one of the most important constituencies inside the national party due to how reflexively loyalist they are) in South Bend to vilify him and instead found an alternate route to carry out what he wanted to do, which came back to bite him in the ass when he ran for President.

[pabloni21]

on that note, what would it take for the democrats to start bothering again? has the party just… given up? t’would be a shame for that to be the case, but that’s what it looks like. how would the IN dems get out of this rut?

No state is forever lost but the fact that the most talented dem pol since bayh, buttigeieg, had to carpetbag to Michigan for a future is a telling sign

Donnelly defeated Richard Mourdock statewide. Buttigieg lost to him statewide by 17 points.

I've never understood what made Pete Buttigieg special compared to say Tom Henry. Comparing mayor to mayor, Henry's accomplishments were arguably better in a city twice South Bend's size that didn't have the advantage of having Notre Dame inside city limits. If Henry ran for President people would've laughed at him.

im active on atlas putting me in the top 0.1% of politically knowledgeable people in the country and i have no clue who tom henry is so that says something

Been Mayor of Fort Wayne for 16 years coinciding with Buttigieg's time as Mayor of South Bend. Is a Democrat. Unlike Buttigieg is straight and older. Fort Wayne is right down the road from South Bend and they're kinda sorta sister cities. Is twice South Bend's size. Has had a renaissance of sorts more impressive than South Bend's physically being in both cities walking around.

buttigieg's accomplushments are irrelevant, he catapulted from being a small time mayor into a cabinet positioin via charisma, being gay, compelling story, etc.

I'm glad we have such high standards for how people in this country how people can become serious candidates for President and be Cabinet secretaries. You can have charisma, be gay, and have a compelling story. That's right up some pro wrestlers' alleyways. More of them should get into politics. They might have no idea how the hell to do the job, but in this era that doesn't matter.

2012 U.S. Senate election in Indiana

Joe Donnelly (Dem) 1,281,181 50.04%
Richard Mourdock (Rep) 1,133,621 44.28%
Andy Horning (Libt) 145,282 5.68%

2010 State Treasurer election in Indiana

Richard Mourdock (Rep) 1,053,527 62.5%
Pete Buttigieg (Dem) 633,243 37.5%

Buttigieg won 4 counties. He did not win his home county of St. Joseph. And at the time of this election the Democratic statewide floor support was 37%, which Buttigieg got. Most talented Democratic politician since Bayh my ass. If he was that talented, he would have not gotten all the blacks (one of the most important constituencies inside the national party due to how reflexively loyalist they are) in South Bend to vilify him and instead found an alternate route to carry out what he wanted to do, which came back to bite him in the ass when he ran for President.

christ did buttigieg even campaign in 2010? granted i was like 4 so i don’t have much in terms of firsthand memories :’p

[Open Source Intelligence]

Someone in state government made a bookkeeping error and there's now a billion dollar hole in Medicaid coverage. This coming year's budget is already set. It's more the next one that will affect.

I'd venture property tax relief (property values and therefore taxes having skyrocketed the past few years, for example the county assessor says my house has gone up 50% in value the past 2 years, which bullsh*t) is probably off the board now.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Todd Rokita is being Todd Rokita behind the scenes.

Supposedly Joe Hogsett is looking at running for Governor. If he loses as he'd be expected to, who cares, he's still Mayor of Indianapolis. I don't expect this, but if he does run, I don't see the Democrats having a contested primary, so he'll only run if McCormick agrees to drop out. Some Democrats have not cared for McCormick being a Republican up until 5 years ago which is probably why the whisper of Hogsett is even a thing. If by a stroke of the imagination we do get our first contested Democratic statewide primary in 16 years, we can finally see how the state Democratic coalition breaks down intra-party.

As far as the Republican field for Governor, appears the only one of the 5 that may have a question about getting enough signatures is Curtis Hill.