The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[libertpaulian]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

[Yellowhammer]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

"It's changing" doesn't mean "it's going to flip communist" all of the sudden. For example Rhode Island trended hard R in 2016, but you don't see folks on the right screeching some deluded fantasy about it "flipping" in 2020.

[jamestroll]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

"It's changing" doesn't mean "it's going to flip communist" all of the sudden. For example Rhode Island trended hard R in 2016, but you don't see folks on the right screeching some deluded fantasy about it "flipping" in 2020.

It is likely to flip Democratic if a Democrat wins statewide in Indiana though. It would certainly be possible for a Democrat to win statewide there without Hamilton County but the margin would have to be very thin for the GOP in Hamilton.

No, it is not going to become a Democratic stronghold and Trump will win it handily but next year will be the first time in recent history that Hamilton votes to the left of the state.

[jamestroll]

Former Evansville, Indiana mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel seems to be ready to run for Attorney General. Perhaps the only competitive statewide contest in Indiana next year.

Though he has not been on any ballot since 2007 and seems to be a has been. He is younger than State Senator Karen Tallian though.

Either way, we should certainly make a play for this.

[libertpaulian]

If Pete is the nominee, IN-05 may be one of the most closely-watched battlegrounds on Election Night.

[jamestroll]

If Pete is the nominee, IN-05 may be one of the most closely-watched battlegrounds on Election Night.

How do you feel about Attorney General?

[libertpaulian]

If Pete is the nominee, IN-05 may be one of the most closely-watched battlegrounds on Election Night.

How do you feel about Attorney General?

If Hill is the nominee, Tossup.  If the Indiana GOP replaces him or if he gets suspended or disbarred, then Likely-to-Safe R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

"It's changing" doesn't mean "it's going to flip communist" all of the sudden. For example Rhode Island trended hard R in 2016, but you don't see folks on the right screeching some deluded fantasy about it "flipping" in 2020.

Some people on Atlas think that every D trends are state in stone while R trends are just fluke

[StateBoiler]

Carmel is "Bloomberg Democrat" territory.

[StateBoiler]

Todd Huston of Fishers has been voted on as Speaker-Elect by the Republican caucus in the State House. He'll take the gavel in March per Eric Berman of WIBC Radio.

[StateBoiler]

The Indiana Dems should run Gill again.  I think it's a prime pickup opportunity for them, especially now that incumbency won't be a factor, and his district is rapidly trending D.

I was in Geist visiting some friends in late 2018, and there were a ton of Poonam Gill signs out.

[libertpaulian]

Todd Huston of Fishers has been voted on as Speaker-Elect by the Republican caucus in the State House. He'll take the gavel in March per Eric Berman of WIBC Radio.

Is he more establishment or more tea party/Trumpy?  I know Bosma was pretty establishment.

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

 

Brian Howey: The timing of the Bosma to Huston speaker transition

Friday, December 6, 2019 10:09 AM




   

Speakers Todd Huston (left) and Brian Bosma.



Speakers Todd Huston (left) and Brian Bosma.
 


 
By BRIAN A. HOWEY

 INDIANAPOLIS – To use a well-worn-political phrase, is timing is everything. That may have prompted the latest change of the Republican guard at the Indiana Statehouse this past week where we saw State Rep. Todd Huston of Fishers take the House speaker’s gavel by acclamation from one of the strongest speakers in Hoosier history when Brian Bosma of Indianapolis decided to stand down.

 Bosma spent two non-consecutive terms with the gavel in what is considered by many as the most powerful Statehouse office due to the Indiana’s constitutionally weak governorship, where a veto can be overridden by a simple majority vote. It follows a similar transition in the Indiana Senate a year ago, when Rod Bray of Martinsville took the helm from Senate President Pro Tem David Long of Fort Wayne, while on the fiscal side State Sen. Ryan Mishler of Bremen and Travis Holdman of Markle took the reins from Senate Appropriations Chairman Luke Kenley and Budget Chairman Brandt Hershman.

 Informed and reliable sources tell me that House Ways & Means Chairman Tim Brown will seek reelection in 2020 after surviving critical injuries in a 2018 motorcycle accident at the Mackinaw Bridge in Michigan. Huston served as co-chair of that influential, budget-writing committee during the 2019 biennial session.

“I’m incredibly grateful for the support from our caucus and the tremendous opportunity to serve in this new leadership role. Indiana’s economic strength is largely rooted in strong, conservative leadership, and I’m honored to work alongside Speaker Bosma during his final legislative session and help continue our state’s momentum,” Speaker Huston said after his Organization Day ascension. Bosma added, “Todd is an invaluable member of our team and a respected leader, and I’m excited for him to take the reins and continue building on Indiana’s success story.” Whether it’s serving as a tough budget hawk or finding common ground among differing viewpoints, he’s been a reliable, go-to legislator for our caucus time and time again. I firmly believe he will take hold of this opportunity with both hands, and bring the vision and energy needed to help keep Indiana on the right track.”

Bosma's first stint came with Gov. Mitch Daniels first two years in office during which he was instrumental in pushing through the $3.8 billion Major Moves Indiana Toll Road lease as well as Daylight Savings Time. The GOP lost its majority for four years during the next election. Republicans and Bosma returned to power in 2010, forging an unprecedented super majority era that commenced with the 2014 election. That 2012 class produced a future lieutenant governor in Sue Ellsperman. Bosma also launched an era of paramount transparency, with all General Assembly sessions and most committee sessions live-streamed via the World Wide Web.

 Bosma briefly pursued the governorship when Gov. Mike Pence vacated his nomination to join Donald Trump on the national ticket, but quickly dropped out after finding little support on the Indiana Republican Central Committee, with whom he and Long had had a contentious relationship, particularly after Bosma allowed the infamous Religious Freedom Restoration Act to move out of the House. It subsequently blew up in Gov. Pence's face, derailing an expected 2016 presidential run. Sources close to Bosma believe he harbors no gubernatorial aspirations in 2024, when Lt. Gov. Crouch is expected to seek to break Indiana's gender glass ceiling.

 Bosma's return to the speakership in 2011 opened up a key sequence for Todd Huston, then serving as chief of staff to controversial Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett. Sensing a historic opening, former presidential advisor and Indiana Republican Chairman Al Hubbard, and long-time Daniels ally Mark Lubbers dined with Huston over Scotch whiskeys and fashioned the school voucher reforms of 2011. According to reporting by Pence biographer ("Piety & Power: Mike Pence and the Taking of the White House") and then Associated Press reporter Tom LoBianco, Huston wrote in a Feb. 10, 2010 email, ”My thought would be that we can get the momentum going and let MD (Mitch Daniels) take the lead when he feels it is time. As soon as he takes ownership of it, whether it is (November) or May, it becomes his initiative. This would allow him to do it after the election but the work is being done prior to his taking ownership of it."

 Huston ran for and won a House seat in 2014, the same year the GOP super majority era began.

 Lubbers said of Huston, “I have known Todd since his political beginnings, which I attach to the Tony Bennett service as State Superintendent. He was vital to Tony’s efforts, bringing organizational talent and structure to what was an effective and milestone revolutionary period. From the outset, he has been deeply and sincerely interested in public policy. And he has a remarkable record of translating vision and ideals into policy.”

As for the "timing is everything” notion, Huston takes the gavel with a potential political time bomb ticking. Thousands of Hoosier teachers filled the Statehouse on the day Bosma handed him the gavel, seeking pay raises. Bosma defeated Democrat Poonam in Gill in 2018 by just 3,726 votes, his closest election with a 55.55% plurality. In 2016, Bosma defeated Democrat Dana Black 65 to 34.85%, or by 11,424 votes, while Huston defeated Democrat Aimee Rivera Cole by just 2,772 votes or 54.5% in 2018. In 2016 Huston defeated Democrat Mike Boland 64-36%, or by a little less than 10,000 votes. Republicans experienced a wipe-out in Indianapolis and Democrats picked up city council seats in once crimson-red Fishers and Carmel this past November.

 In this era of President Donald Trump, Republicans remain resolutely in his camp, and voters are delivering a withering verdict. Even Hoosier suburbs are gaining a purple hue. A sitting Indiana speaker hasn't been upset since 1986. Bosma may have decided this calm before the storm may have a good time to get out of Dodge.

The columnist is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com. Find Howey on Facebook and Twitter @hwypol.

[StateBoiler]

State Sen. Eddie Melton of Gary dropped out of the race to be the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee. The two remaining candidates are Woody Myers and Josh Owens. Candidate filings for the May primaries opens up tomorrow.

General Assembly started working Monday.

[StateBoiler]

Your filings so far. No statewide races have official filings yet.

Congress 1st District (longtime Dem. Congressman Pete Visclosky is retiring after McDermott threatened a primary challenge, northwest Indiana)

Scott Costello-Dem
Tony Daggett Sr.-Dem
Thomas McDermott-Dem (Mayor of Hammond, favorite)
Maria Candelaria Reardon-Dem (in the state legislature, one of the people that made accusations against Curtis Hill)
Jayson Reeves-Dem
Dion Bergeron-Rep
Spencer Lemmons-Rep
Mark Leyva-Rep (Republican nominee in 2014 and 2018)
Bill Powers-Rep
Delano Scaife-Rep

5th District (Republican Susan Brooks is retiring, northern Indianapolis suburbs)

Jennifer Christie-Dem
Dee Thornton-Dem (Democratic nominee in 2018)
Andrew Bales-Rep
Micah Beckwith-Rep
Allen Davison-Rep
Matt Hook-Rep

Other items, Holcomb's State of the State is tonight at 7pm.

[StateBoiler]

Filing for primary elections closes today.

Democrats Statewide

President:

Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Pete Buttigieg
Tulsi Gabbard
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
Andrew Yang

Governor:

Woody Myers
(there was expected to be a 2nd candidate here but he has dropped out, that now makes 12 years and counting since the Democrats had a contested primary on a statewide ballot that was not the presidency)

14 candidates running in the open 1st after Pete Visclosky retired
2 candidates in the 2nd
4 candidates in the 3rd
4 candidates in the 4th
5 candidates in the 5th
3 candidates in the 6th
Andre Carson has 1 challenger in the 7th
3 candidates in the 8th
5 candidates in the 9th

Republicans Statewide

President:

Donald Trump
Bill Weld

Governor:

Eric Holcomb
Brian Roth

6 candidates running in the Democrats' open 1st
Jackie Walorski has 1 challenger in the 2nd
Jim Banks has 1 challenger in the 3rd
Jim Baird has 1 challenger in the 4th
16 candidates for the Open 5th
Greg Pence has 1 challenger in the 6th
6 candidates running in the Democrats' 7th
Larry Bucshon has no challengers in the 8th
Trey Hollingsworth has no challengers in the 9th

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

that now makes 12 years and counting since the Democrats had a contested primary on a statewide ballot that was not the presidency

Well, there's certainly no reason for Democrats to reconsider their statewide strategy! Zody is a genius.

[libertpaulian]

that now makes 12 years and counting since the Democrats had a contested primary on a statewide ballot that was not the presidency

Well, there's certainly no reason for Democrats to reconsider their statewide strategy! Zody is a genius.

Our state literally has NO Democratic bench.  The only credible statewide candidates at this point are Hogsett and Buttigieg.  And one of those two is running for a much higher office.

[Frenchrepublican]

Frankly, Holcomb is clearly safe and will win with more than 60%

[Tekken_Guy]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

[Frenchrepublican]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

[StateBoiler]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

I think Buttigieg's political future is him getting out of Indiana. He lives in Walorski's congressional district which is winnable for a Democrat, and he chose to run for DNC Chair and for President. I never thought he'd win the nomination - still don't, blacks hate him too much considering their percentage of the Democratic primary electorate - but he's looking to be the VP nominee or some kind of cabinet/agency chief job.

The Indiana Democratic Party is effectively a dead organization statewide. I was looking at candidate filings yesterday with a buddy in Whitley County (county west of Fort Wayne) and not a single Democrat filed there for anything except State Convention Delegate.

[libertpaulian]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

I think Buttigieg's political future is him getting out of Indiana. He lives in Walorski's congressional district which is winnable for a Democrat, and he chose to run for DNC Chair and for President. I never thought he'd win the nomination - still don't, blacks hate him too much considering their percentage of the Democratic primary electorate - but he's looking to be the VP nominee or some kind of cabinet/agency chief job.

The Indiana Democratic Party is effectively a dead organization statewide. I was looking at candidate filings yesterday with a buddy in Whitley County (county west of Fort Wayne) and not a single Democrat filed there for anything except State Convention Delegate.

Thank Zody for that.

[StateBoiler]

Zody is running for State Senate this year, aiming to replace a retiring Democrat.

[libertpaulian]

Zody is running for State Senate this year, aiming to replace a retiring Democrat.

Honestly, I hope this means the end of his tenure with the state party.  If the party wants to regain its relevance, it needs a chairman who knows what the hell they're doing.