KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Safe R

No it's not, Barb Bollier ia sending me lots of emails saying she can win, which I have donated to

If Barb Bollier is saying she can win, then this race has to be Safe D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has a better chance than Greenfield,  who is the worst recruit ever.😖😖😖 Solid is the only pollster that has Sununu, Parsons and Ernst losing, the Dems are DOA running against them

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe R

No it's not, Barb Bollier ia sending me lots of emails saying she can win, which I have donated to

If Barb Bollier is saying she can win, then this race has to be Safe D.

I know right, this quote is hilarious

[MT Treasurer]

She has a better chance than Greenfield

This, but unironically.

[😥]

She has a better chance than Greenfield

This, but unironically.

[tmthforu94]

Who thinks Bollier will win her hometown of Mission Hills Kansas?
+22 Mccain, +40 romney +1 clinton but Sharice davids lost it by 10 I think even while winning the district by 9 more than Clinton.

Doubtful, I don't envision her getting much crossover support, she burned a lot of bridges when she left the GOP.

I'm sure someone on the GOP side is doing research on her voting record, I'm sure there will be some votes in there that the Democratic base won't like. Kansas Democrats are much more liberal than you'd expect from a Plains State.

Barbara Bollier will lose to anyone, including Kobach. Hoping GOP nominates someone reasonable though so this race doesn't become a "thing."

[tmthforu94]

Also, I think this was missed:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474499-internal-gop-polling-shows-kobach-has-lead-in-kansas-senate-race-unless

Internal State GOP poll shows Kobach with 43% without Pompeo in the race (not good), but Pompeo would beat Kobach head-to-head 68-24. It is presumed Wagle would drop out and Marshall would jump back to his House race.

[Roll Roons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

[windjammer]

I don't understand why people think Kobach is going to get Moore'd.
Kansas is a republican state. They elected some democrat governors in the past, but democrat senator? The last time it happened was in the 1930's.

[President Johnson]

I don't understand why people think Kobach is going to get Moore'd.
Kansas is a republican state. They elected some democrat governors in the past, but democrat senator? The last time it happened was in the 1930's.

Well, I think any Democrat is still an underdog even with KKKobach, but he's a terrible candidate and in Kansas suburbs are a lot of more moderate Republicans who are potentially willing to elect a Democrat as long as he or she isn't far-left. As former Republican, Barbara Boullier could garner a decent amount of support here. In this matchup, the seat isn't less likely to flip than Ernst losing Iowa. And far more likely than Moscow Mitch losing.

[Gracile]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

That's surprising, if true. It seems like Pompeo was making all the moves for a prospective campaign.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

That's surprising, if true. It seems like Pompeo was making all the moves for a prospective campaign.

Apparently nobody really know what Pompeo will do. What this White House person is telling is just his own opinion.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/27/politics/mike-pompeo-social-media-possible-run-senate-kansas/index.html
’’The new accounts, which began posting in mid-December, are viewed by some inside the White House and State Department as platforms for Pompeo to begin building a personal brand ahead of a potential run, even as it remains unclear when and even if he will decide to depart the administration.
While some of Trump's advisers view it as a foregone conclusion that he will enter the Kansas US Senate contest, others are less sure he'll decide to reenter electoral politics’’

[MT Treasurer]

Kansans love their radical centrists and middle-aged neoliberal ladies. Barbara Bollier is going to do them proud in the Senate.

D+1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have 3 seats already in the Senate, the wave is ME, IA, GA, NC  KY, SC and TX should Peter's and Jones lose

[windjammer]

Kansans love their radical centrists and middle-aged neoliberal ladies. Barbara Bollier is going to do them proud in the Senate.

D+1.

Is it sarcastic or not?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Kansans love their radical centrists and middle-aged neoliberal ladies. Barbara Bollier is going to do them proud in the Senate.

D+1.

Is it sarcastic or not?

Sadly no.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

[tmthforu94]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

It also says something about the state demographic vote makeup. If even a stellar performance in KS-01 and almost winning a Trump +20 district isn't enough to even come close to a win statewide, anyone who thinks this race is competitive is fooling themselves.

[Calthrina950]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

It also says something about the state demographic vote makeup. If even a stellar performance in KS-01 and almost winning a Trump +20 district isn't enough to even come close to a win statewide, anyone who thinks this race is competitive is fooling themselves.

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 87 years, since 1932. And as you say, the shift of Johnson County to the Democrats is not enough to make them competitive statewide, given how Republican the state's vast rural areas are. It looks we may have to tolerate Kris Kobach in the Senate for years to come. Kobach would be another Marsha Blackburn-a horrific addition to a body already plagued by partisanship and by other negative factors.

[windjammer]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

It also says something about the state demographic vote makeup. If even a stellar performance in KS-01 and almost winning a Trump +20 district isn't enough to even come close to a win statewide, anyone who thinks this race is competitive is fooling themselves.

This!!!

Kansas is indeed trending dem but losing Kansas by 10 instead by 20 still means losing it!!!

[MT Treasurer]

Is it sarcastic or not?

Only somewhat. I really don’t buy that Republicans can take this race for granted and that it’s safe R no matter what, even with Kobach as the R nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a 278 EC map Dems can win ME, CO, KS and AZ, KS is a Red state, but Kelly, just like Barb Bollier can transcend partisanship. Since Kobach, not moderate Pompeo is likely to run. But, if Pompeo runs, Dems should target NC, instead.

[RogueBeaver]

WaPo says Pompeo's decision making has stalled and he has mixed feelings about trading Foggy Bottom for a junior Senate seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Pompeo out.