KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Pollster]

Just now seeing that the situation looks even worse for Pompeo than it did when I posted.

[Politician]

Boyda out.

https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Former-Rep-Nancy-Boyda-drops-Senate-bid-562734281.html

[Gass3268]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

[smoltchanov]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I like Bollier a lot, but - she can win 3rd and even (narrowly) 2nd, but will lose 4th and crushed in 1st.

[Young Conservative]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I can't imagine this strategy doing better in Kansas than Florida...

https://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-leads-charlie-crist-in-early-returns/2205127/

[MT Treasurer]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I can't imagine this strategy doing better in Kansas than Florida...

https://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-leads-charlie-crist-in-early-returns/2205127/

Eh, these races aren’t even remotely comparable.

[tmthforu94]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I'm really curious to see who the establishment Democrats line up behind between her and Grissom. I haven't researched her voting record, but am guessing there will be a couple problematic votes that'll come up from her time as a Republican that the base will have issues with.

[Young Conservative]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I'm really curious to see who the establishment Democrats line up behind between her and Grissom. I haven't researched her voting record, but am guessing there will be a couple problematic votes that'll come up from her time as a Republican that the base will have issues with.

She's never been a conservative. She's always been a wolf in sheep's clothing for the GOP.

[Skill and Chance]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I can't imagine this strategy doing better in Kansas than Florida...

https://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-leads-charlie-crist-in-early-returns/2205127/

Eh, these races aren’t even remotely comparable.

Right.  She's probably the strongest candidate Dems could run here, certainly stronger than Boyda who lost in 2008 or Grissom with his personal scandals.

[Pollster]

Bollier getting in suggests many things:

1) Smarsh is not going to run. Bollier likely consolidates the Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius support system.
2) Confidence in Grissom is gone.
3) Democrats still suspect Kobach is likely to win the primary.

Also, Abbie Hodgson dropped out of the KS-02 race to make way for "a better-funded candidate." No signs that any announcements are coming but we could see a new candidate announce here soon. Key local elected Dems in this district are Tom Holland, Monica Murnan, Eileen Horn, and Virgil Weigel.

[KaiserDave]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

You overestimate the Republican electorate.

[smoltchanov]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

You overestimate the Republican electorate.

+100. Most of the present day Republican "activists" (and it's them, who vote in the primary) are not dumb - they are extremely dumb, bordering on pure idiocy...

[Epaminondas]

Why is Boyda out? Her name recognition and moderate image would have been a strong selling point in a district that has veered hard right since the 1990s.

+100. Most of the present day Republican "activists" (and it's them, who vote in the primary) are not dumb - they are extremely dumb, bordering on pure idiocy...

I almost fell off my rocking chair.
What happened to your motto "Kansas is Kansas, they have every right to their brand of policies, you brainwashed liberal"?

[VPH]

Why is Boyda out? Her name recognition and moderate image would have been a strong selling point in a district that has veered hard right since the 1990s.

Boyda dropped out because Bollier is running in the centrist lane and can outraise her by quite a bit. She's also starting a nonprofit to bring people together, so I guess she saw opportunity to get involved elsewhere.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

You overestimate the Republican electorate.

+100. Most of the present day Republican "activists" (and it's them, who vote in the primary) are not dumb - they are extremely dumb, bordering on pure idiocy...

They're going to vote Kobach because he triggers the libs. That's all there is to it. And while Trump could pull him across the finish line, it's worth remembering that he only got 43% of the vote running for governor as a mini-Trump, and mini-Trumps typically do worse than Trump himself, even the ones who win.

[Calthrina950]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

You overestimate the Republican electorate.

+100. Most of the present day Republican "activists" (and it's them, who vote in the primary) are not dumb - they are extremely dumb, bordering on pure idiocy...

They're going to vote Kobach because he triggers the libs. That's all there is to it. And while Trump could pull him across the finish line, it's worth remembering that he only got 43% of the vote running for governor as a mini-Trump, and mini-Trumps typically do worse than Trump himself, even the ones who win.

This much is true, but do we know who the 6% of Kansans who voted for Greg Orman would vote for in a Senatorial race, if Kobach wins the nomination? I'm not entirely sure that they would be willing to vote for a Democrat, especially in a federal race. And if Trump is carrying Kansas (which he will, probably by low to mid double digits), then it's hard for me to see Kobach losing. Ticket-splitting has decreased to such an extent.

[Galeel]

People are way overplaying democrat's chances in Kansas. Yes, it's trending D, but it still voted for Trump by 21 points, and even if it trends D more it will still likely vote for him by a wide margin. I can't see even Kobach losing in a presidential year.

[smoltchanov]

Why is Boyda out? Her name recognition and moderate image would have been a strong selling point in a district that has veered hard right since the 1990s.

+100. Most of the present day Republican "activists" (and it's them, who vote in the primary) are not dumb - they are extremely dumb, bordering on pure idiocy...

I almost fell off my rocking chair.
What happened to your motto "Kansas is Kansas, they have every right to their brand of policies, you brainwashed liberal"?

Nothing. I have nothing against, say, Moran, though he is far more conservative, then i am. But - i have a lot against such people as Kobach. Or - Roy Moore. Or - ... you got the point. Just as i am not enamored at all by people like AOC or Ilhan Omar. Every state has every right to their brand of policies, with one exception: idiotic.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Can anyone give me a heads-up on the demographics of Kansas.  Rural and white, I know, but are they changing?  Does being adjacent to New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas suggest a growing Latino population?  Are Wichita or the KC suburbs growing at a meaningful rate?

[VPH]

And Barry Grissom just dropped out. Looks like Bollier is clearing the field.
https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1184862649324134400

[smoltchanov]

^ Good. But still she has almost unsurmountable difficulties in KS-01...

[SnowLabrador]

^ Good. But still she has almost unsurmountable difficulties in KS-01...

This race is going to be an uphill battle for any Democrat, even against Kobach. She has a year to make inroads, too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grissom was the biggest bust as Ted Strickland, which had 1 poll leading Kobach by 10. Just like Strickland was leading Portman

[Gracile]

Sebelius is backing Bollier-

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1186289335349534725

[DINGO Joe]

Can anyone give me a heads-up on the demographics of Kansas.  Rural and white, I know, but are they changing?  Does being adjacent to New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas suggest a growing Latino population?  Are Wichita or the KC suburbs growing at a meaningful rate?

The only meaningful growth is the KC metro.  Wichita has minimal growth and the rest of the state has minimal to major population declines.    The SW part of the state has a substantial (almost majority) but non-voting Hispanic population.  Like just about every state, each election cycle means more metro voters and fewer rural voters.