KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Lisa's voting Biden]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

Do you say whatever inane BS pops into your head at any given time or do you carefully plan out your crap ahead of time?

Please take a deep breath and go to your happy place in your head and then resume posting.

It's quite apparent he's either trolling or just really, really politically out of touch with everything.

[MT Treasurer]

It's quite apparent he's either trolling or just really, really politically out of touch with everything.

I mean, you (and several other posters here) could easily put him on ignore and stop engaging with him, but the fact is you don’t...

[Oryxslayer]

It's quite apparent he's either trolling or just really, really politically out of touch with everything.

I mean, you (and several other posters here) could easily put him on ignore and stop engaging with him, but the fact is you don’t...

I did a long time ago and the forum is for the better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

Do you say whatever inane BS pops into your head at any given time or do you carefully plan out your crap ahead of time?

No, the Senate is corrupted with McConnell 's leadership and Dems chance of taking back Senate has gone up. If R's lose AZ, this will get Dems the majority. It proves Dems can win in a red state and can win in KS, AK and TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's quite apparent he's either trolling or just really, really politically out of touch with everything.

I mean, you (and several other posters here) could easily put him on ignore and stop engaging with him, but the fact is you don’t...

I did a long time ago and the forum is for the better.

Dont you guys realize Trunp is traling by over 10 points in natl polls

[Epaminondas]

Dont you guys realize Trunp is traling by over 10 points in natl polls

This sort of complacent statement is the last we need to hear in the Dem camp.
Assume the national polls are wrong by 5.

[Oryxslayer]

Marshalls officially in.

[Politician]

Something I just realized: Kansas' delegation, after having being unchanged from 2010-2016, has been upended.

2016: Huelskamp defeated for re-nomination by Marshall
2017: Pompeo confirmed CIA director, replaced by Estes
2018: Yoder defeated for re-election by Davids, Jenkins retired and replaced by Watkins
2020: Marshall running for Senate

And there's also the possibility of Watkins getting primaried or an outside chance of him or Davids losing re-election.

[tmthforu94]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460374-rep-roger-marshall-launches-kansas-senate-bid?amp

[😥]

Likely R (much closer to Safe R) if Marshall wins Republican primary

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

[DINGO Joe]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

[IceSpear]

A Trump endorsement of Marshall would likely seal Kobach's fate, and by extension the Democrats' chances of winning this seat. But Trump adores Kobach, so who knows what he'll do.

[Skill and Chance]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

They didn't have the votes to do that in 2011 when Brownback was governor.  No way they would be able to do it now over Kelly's veto.  Republicans are currently only 2 seats over the veto override threshold in the lower chamber, so it's entirely possible they lose the veto-proof majority in 2020 anyway.  And the Kansas Supreme Court leans strongly left if redistricting gets there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

They didn't have the votes to do that in 2011 when Brownback was governor.  No way they would be able to do it now over Kelly's veto.  Republicans are currently only 2 seats over the veto override threshold in the lower chamber, so it's entirely possible they lose the veto-proof majority in 2020 anyway.  And the Kansas Supreme Court leans strongly left if redistricting gets there.

And Kansas legislature couldn't even draw the maps last time because they were too busy fighting each other, as I recall.

[Oryxslayer]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

They didn't have the votes to do that in 2011 when Brownback was governor.  No way they would be able to do it now over Kelly's veto.  Republicans are currently only 2 seats over the veto override threshold in the lower chamber, so it's entirely possible they lose the veto-proof majority in 2020 anyway.  And the Kansas Supreme Court leans strongly left if redistricting gets there.

And Kansas legislature couldn't even draw the maps last time because they were too busy fighting each other, as I recall.

And Kelly has close to a shadow majority considering the moderate/radical split. But the big 1st could still move west to eat the rurals north of KC presently in the second. Then it would get even more GOP and more likely to foster statewide candidates. But anyway...

Likely R (much closer to Safe R) if Marshall wins Republican primary

Come one, everyone knows the copy paste Twitter endorsement means nothing when Kobach is essentially mini Trump. Especially when the only reason Trump wouldn't give Kobach his endorsement again is because he lost. The radical wing of the party will still vote against the respectable Marshall, because that's how the KS GOP fracture works.

[HarrisonL]

KS-1 has traditionally been a pipeline to the Senate, but I feel like Marshall will lose a crowded primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Not exactly a surprise, but Republicans are worried about this seat:

In interviews, multiple Republican political operatives from Washington to Wichita say they fear a rerun of last year, when Kobach, the former Kansas Secretary of State and state party chairman, narrowly won a crowded primary and then lost the governor's race to then-Democratic state Sen. Laura Kelly, who secured the endorsements of high-profile moderate Republicans.

The state's elections in 2018 weren't just an indictment of Kobach. They were also seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump and the legacy of former Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, whose unprecedented tax cuts led to a budget shortfall worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Democrats didn't just flip the governor's residence, they also broke the state's entirely Republican congressional delegation, winning one of four Kansas House seats and coming close in another conservative district.

In August, the retiring Roberts told CNN he didn't know if Kansas was "deep red anymore" and wondered if it's now "maybe purple."

Pompeo still being courted:

Since Republicans took back the Senate in the 2014 election, majority leader Mitch McConnell has aggressively recruited who he believes are the most electable candidates. In the case of Kansas, he has sought an extraordinary salvation: a run by former Kansas congressman and current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

On September 3, McConnell reiterated on conservative host Hugh Hewitt's radio show that Pompeo is his "first choice." A few days later, Pompeo told the Wichita Eagle and the Kansas City Star that he wants to serve the president as long as Trump wants him to be Secretary of State, adding to take his response "however you'd like." [...]

"In a multi-candidate field without Mike Pompeo, Kobach is likely to win" the primary, said David Kensinger, a Republican strategist who managed successful statewide campaigns for Roberts and Brownback. Any other Republican candidate would be a "strong favorite" to win the general election, he added, while "Kobach would be, at best, a severe risk."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/15/politics/pompeo-senate-kansas-republican-fear-kobach/index.html

[Politician]

Since when did MT Treasurer invent mind control and use it on Pat Roberts?

[Gracile]

Not exactly a surprise, but Republicans are worried about this seat:

*snip*

This sounds like expectation setting more than anything else tbh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They should be, Dems are well positioned to make it a blue wave.

[Politician]

Since when did MT Treasurer invent mind control and use it on Pat Roberts?

Told y’all Blue Kansas was imminent

#Neoliberal KS more likely to flip than ME/IA

Kris Kobach hasn't won the primary yet.

[President Johnson]

So what would a Democratic win look like on the map? The same counties Laura Kelly won last year? Is that possible? It would be nice to pick this one up.

[Tekken_Guy]

The field should probably windle down to just Marshall and Kobach. Marshall will win handily. Unlike Colyer, people don’t associate Marshall with Brownback, but they do associate Kobach with Kobach.

[We Live in Black and White]

The field should probably windle down to just Marshall and Kobach. Marshall will win handily. Unlike Colyer, people don’t associate Marshall with Brownback, but they do associate Kobach with Kobach.

The trouble is that the Republican Party nowadays is so tribalistically fascist that Kobach being Kobach is probably all he needs to win the nomination.