This actually doesn't seem like a half bad basemap for 2020, with maybe Iowa switched to the Republicans.
#UtahUnder60
Iowa has voted for the Democratic nominee in three of the last five Presidential elections and six of the last eight. At this point, I would consider the aggregate count of votes for Representatives as good proxies for a Presidential election that has the same electoral mix as for the preceding (now just decided) midterm. Although the Senate election results for seats is distorted by more Democratic seats at risk this time (effect will be reduced in 2020), the national result for the Senate is still advantage D.
Donald Trump is extremely polarizing, and many people voted to either support him or give him an ugly message. One way or the other, much of the vote is about Trump.
LOL
imagine using Iowas popular vote in a state with 4 districts where one of the districts is super red but had a really bad incumbent who won by 3 points. No you can't use Iowa's popular vote. Iowas 4th rural hicks will outvote the less racist rural hicks in the other 3 districts.
We are all using proxies for 2020. Before the 2018 election I was using 100-DIS (on the assumption that people who do not disapprove of him can vote for him, but that those who disapprove of him can cast a vote for a conservative alternative, make a nonsense vote (like "Luke Skywalker" or "Jesus Christ") as a write-in, or not vote for the President if unwilling to vote for the Democratic alternative.
After some state polls start coming in I will show those again on the Trump Approval Ratings thread then in use. New polls after the midterm election are nationwide numbers, and they look like what I saw before the elections
If you want someone who believes that he can post exact numbers, then look for an astrologer.
Are my proxies as good as knowing exact numbers after the election? Not in the least. Even my assumption that Donald Trump will be the nominee depends upon certain things (like having a fatal stroke or heart attack) not happening. I have no idea of who the Democratic nominee will be. I cannot even predict whether there will be a third-party nominee to cut into any possible Trump vote.
But note well: in a Presidential election with an incumbent President, the dominant factor is the perception of the incumbent President. Need I remind you that the Carter administration was delighted to recognize that the most 'unelectable' Republican got the nomination in 1980? Above all, a President who barely won election must gain some support just to offset losses of support from disappointed people. He has not gained such support.
OK, I cannot predict the effect that the pervasive, severe scandals associated with the Trump administration will have upon the 2020 election. Until I see otherwise I will treat the general results of House elections statewide as predictors of how a 2018 electorate will vote on the Presidency in 2020.
So do you dislike my proxy? Tough!
