Cumulative House Results by State

[IceSpear]

PA voting more Democratic than Michigan feels odd. It certainly hasn't happened in presidential elections in a while, IIRC.

Agreed. I will say, however, that I think Wolf’s margins in the Philly suburbs are what a lot of us probably thought Hillary was going to get in 2016. The suburban vote that came out this year was something that never materialized for Hillary. I imagine the House results aren’t too dissimilar to Wolf’s (apart from Bucks County).

Hillary was never going to reach Wolf's numbers, but they would've been a lot better than they were in reality if not for Comey.

[IceSpear]

In regards to Trump, I think what this election showed is that unlike in 2016 when the opposition to Trump was divided, nearly all of those who oppose Trump are, for now, supporting the Democratic Party.  Even if Trump were to completely hold his base, based on the midterm result, he would still lose reelection.

This is why the Atlas/pundit #hottake about how a third party candidate hurts Trump is so tiresome. Trump's 45% base is locked the f**k in. Any division of the remaining 55% only hurts the Democrats.

[IceSpear]

In regards to Trump, I think what this election showed is that unlike in 2016 when the opposition to Trump was divided, nearly all of those who oppose Trump are, for now, supporting the Democratic Party.  Even if Trump were to completely hold his base, based on the midterm result, he would still lose reelection.

This is why the Atlas/pundit #hottake about how a third party candidate hurts Trump is so tiresome. Trump's 45% base is locked the f**k in. Any division of the remaining 55% only hurts the Democrats.

That's an overestimation. It's more like 35-40 percent. His 100% hardcore base is a couple points below his approval ratings, which tend to be between 39 and 42.

Actually, he's been at 44% for quite a while now if you only take into account registered voter polls. Polls of adults are irrelevant. Nobody cares what you think if you don't/can't vote.

[IceSpear]

PA voting more Democratic than Michigan feels odd. It certainly hasn't happened in presidential elections in a while, IIRC.

Agreed. I will say, however, that I think Wolf’s margins in the Philly suburbs are what a lot of us probably thought Hillary was going to get in 2016. The suburban vote that came out this year was something that never materialized for Hillary. I imagine the House results aren’t too dissimilar to Wolf’s (apart from Bucks County).

Well actually, in PA-14 Wolf came within 3 points of winning the district while the GOP won the congressional seat by 16.

Yeah, that is true. That’s a strange area of the state though, where some statewide Dems overperform and others not so much. Like many areas, those trends predate Trump, but have just been massively accelerated. But even that district looks to have shifted based on urban/rural trends. Wolf lost rural Greene and Fayette Counties, while more suburban Washington and Westmoreland swung towards him. Casey seems to have only marginally dropped in the more rural counties relative to his overall statewide performance.

A thought experiment, but does anyone think Lamb could’ve won the new PA-14? Personally, I doubt it, in part based on his performance in March, but I imagine it would’ve been a very close result.

Nah, there's no way Lamb would've won that when he only beat a much worse opponent in a much friendlier district by a razor thin margin. The fact that Wolf and Casey couldn't carry it either only confirms that. He definitely would've had a pretty good showing though. Maybe something like a 5 point loss?