Crisis in Florida

[ON Progressive]

So why did Matt Caldwell lose the Ag Commissioner race? Is he unpopular?

It looks like Fried did better in South Florida than both Nelson/Gillum.

Miami-Dade: 60.93% Fried, 60.43% Nelson, 59.9% Gillum
Broward: 69.12% Fried, 68.92% Nelson, 67.95% Gillum
Palm Beach: 59.09% Fried, 58.39% Nelson, 58.15% Gillum

It looks like that Republicans simply dropped off slightly more than Democrats, which is surprising since I find it's usually the other way around.

I imagine if Nelson got Fried's margins in those three counties, he might've pulled it out. Not as sure about Gillum.

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder who will be the Roberts/Blunt/Nelson of 2020 (incumbent underperforming the fundamentals by a lot)? My money is on Daines, if not, then.. well, Roberts.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Dems face a horrendous gerrymander in FL and OH as a whole, and FL 27 was in South Beach anyways. It will be years before Dems can really win statewide offices in FL.

Democrat Nikki Fried was just elected Commissioner of Agriculture, which is a statewide position that garners one a decent following.

[Calthrina950]

The Dems face a horrendous gerrymander in FL and OH as a whole, and FL 27 was in South Beach anyways. It will be years before Dems can really win statewide offices in FL.

Democrat Nikki Fried was just elected Commissioner of Agriculture, which is a statewide position that garners one a decent following.

I'm not sure if you saw my question to you above, on this page.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So why did Matt Caldwell lose the Ag Commissioner race? Is he unpopular?

I literally never heard of Fried until election night. Caldwell made a few token national media appointments.

[Nyvin]

Is there any state which has been consistently viewed and treated as a swing state for as long as Florida has—since the 2000 election? Wisconsin may be the only one, but it went through a period in Obama's elections of being seen as off the table for Republicans. Ohio and Iowa fit the bill until 2016 when they seemed to drift off into Republican territory.  

Florida was highly contested and seen as genuinely in doubt in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and will be seen that way again in 2020 unless the Dem is stuck far behind in polls.

In 2000, as I recall, the battleground states included Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida. Colorado, Virginia, and of course Arizona and North Carolina were off the table as likely Republican states.

I still think 2016 was a Realignment Election and the GAINS Democrats made this year by winning 2 House Seats in IA, winning the WI & MI Governor Races + winning a House Seat in MI will only be temporary.

I can see Republicans winning the entire Rust Belt by 2024 (PA, MI, WI, OH, IA and MN). Conversly I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats take VA, NC, AZ and maybe TX in 2024.

Florida is definitly trending a bit more Republican right now.

I doubt all the states in the Midwest will be leaning Republican by 2024.   Already in PA, MI, and MN the democrats are already almost completely transitioned to an urban party at every level,  the senators who won those states did so almost exclusively though the urban parts of the states compared to their previous elections.   The way demographics are going they'll be able to form statewide majorities just through the bigger cities even easier too.

With OH, IA, and maybe WI I can agree with you though.

[GP270watch]

The Dems face a horrendous gerrymander in FL and OH as a whole, and FL 27 was in South Beach anyways. It will be years before Dems can really win statewide offices in FL.

Democrat Nikki Fried was just elected Commissioner of Agriculture, which is a statewide position that garners one a decent following.

 If she does a good job here she can set herself up for other statewide positions. She is big on legalized Marijuana reform. Her office will also be reviewing concealed weapons background checks which the former Republican Adam Putnam infamously mismanaged, because they couldn't figure out the login process, they didn't do proper reviews for an entire year. These two issues alone will give her a lot of statewide profile.

[GP270watch]

  Democrats can easily win Florida in 2020 if they organize. Everything staying the same, we know what Trump's base is and it isn't growing but it has proved reliable. Florida will be a coin-toss. It always is. Sometimes you flip a coin and head lands a few times in a row, that doesn't mean it isn't a coin toss.

 Florida Democrats and people watching us nationwide stop freaking out. We need to register more people like Beto and Abrams did. Beto and Abrams were running for nearly 2 years. Gillum just came on the last few months and improved on the margins of the last two Florida gubernatorial races. Democrats have a huge potential voter base to tap, but it's not a reliable voter base and that is the problem.

 

[ON Progressive]

 Democrats can easily win Florida in 2020 if they organize. Everything staying the same, we know what Trump's base is and it isn't growing but it has proved reliable. Florida will be a coin-toss. It always is. Sometimes you flip a coin and head lands a few times in a row, that doesn't mean it isn't a coin toss.

 Florida Democrats and people watching us Nationwide stop freaking out. We need to register more people like Beto and Abrams did. Beto and Abrams were running for nearly 2 years. Gillum just came on the last few months and improved on the margins of the last two Florida gubernatorial races. Democrats have a huge potential voter base to tap, but it's not a reliable voter base and that is the problem.

FL Dems need to be aggressively registering and turning out ex-felons. I know I’ve said before I am skeptical Amendment 4 changes much, but if the FLDP gets aggressive about it, they can prove
me wrong.

[GP270watch]

FL Dems need to be aggressively registering and turning out ex-felons. I know I’ve said before I am skeptical Amendment 4 changes much, but if the FLDP gets aggressive about it, they can prove
me wrong.

 Register anybody you can and register them as Democrats. There has been a troubling trend where a lot of Democratic leaning voters signing up as NPA and Democratic organizations being OK with this. If you want to remake the Democratic party to what the people want, you have to get these folks engaged, voting in primaries for the candidates they want and then following through with supporting these candidates and the party.

 The Florida GOP could run a cardboard box with NRA, TAX CUTS, and Religious Freedoms written in crayon and get 75-90% turnout in certain counties from registered Republicans.

[Reaganfan]

 Democrats can easily win Florida in 2020 if they organize. Everything staying the same, we know what Trump's base is and it isn't growing but it has proved reliable. Florida will be a coin-toss. It always is. Sometimes you flip a coin and head lands a few times in a row, that doesn't mean it isn't a coin toss.

 Florida Democrats and people watching us Nationwide stop freaking out. We need to register more people like Beto and Abrams did. Beto and Abrams were running for nearly 2 years. Gillum just came on the last few months and improved on the margins of the last two Florida gubernatorial races. Democrats have a huge potential voter base to tap, but it's not a reliable voter base and that is the problem.

FL Dems need to be aggressively registering and turning out ex-felons. I know I’ve said before I am skeptical Amendment 4 changes much, but if the FLDP gets aggressive about it, they can prove
me wrong.

Isn't it sad that you guys would have to focus on turning on criminals? Not petty criminals, but violent criminals? Half the country wants them to die, the other wants them to vote.

[President Johnson]

Rick Scott won't resign as governor on January 3 to assume his position as senator. He'll serve out his term to January 8 and then get sworn in as senator. So, CLC won't be a brief governor. Actually not that smart from Scott since he loses seniority in the senate.

Tampa Bay Article

[UncleSam]

Rick Scott won't resign as governor on January 3 to assume his position as senator. He'll serve out his term to January 8 and then get sworn in as senator. So, CLC won't be a brief governor. Actually not that smart from Scott since he loses seniority in the senate.

Tampa Bay Article

Rick Scott is fairly old, and I doubt he is thinking he will be a lifer or even close to it. He is probably aiming for two terms, which wouldn’t even get him close to the chair of any committee.

[ajc0918]

Rick Scott won't resign as governor on January 3 to assume his position as senator. He'll serve out his term to January 8 and then get sworn in as senator. So, CLC won't be a brief governor. Actually not that smart from Scott since he loses seniority in the senate.

Tampa Bay Article

Rick Scott is fairly old, and I doubt he is thinking he will be a lifer or even close to it. He is probably aiming for two terms, which wouldn’t even get him close to the chair of any committee.

He wants to run for President in 2024