Crisis in Florida

[Alabama_Indy10]

I just saw it but Nelson’s video was very classy. Congratulations Senator-Elect Rick Scott and Governor-Elect Ron DeSantis!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why do people want loser Gillum to run again?
He lost a swing state in a blue wave.
He is a bad candidate and should be removed from electoral politics just like Ted cruz should be on SCOTUS or a federal court rather than the senate.

I actually agree with you about Gillum. As for the Ted Cruz part... are you f***ing serious? Ted Cruz should crawl back into the damp, dark cave that he belongs in. Anyway, I digress, Gillum looked to be a better than expected candidate, especially for people like myself that were worried about him winning the primary; since he was consistently leading in polls, was charismatic, progressive, and a historic candidate. All this possibly made him (and admittedly, people like me that grew to like him) overconfident about his chances. But clearly his race, alleged corruption, and the state he was running in just proved to be too much to overcome. He needs to stay in Tallahassee and never show his face outside of it ever again.

I don't know what more I could say about Florida at this point. But I will say this, I am at least glad that this disaster of an election is all over even as it has drastic negative long-term consequences for the state and the country. Floridian voters gave their fellow Floridians and other American citizens the middle finger by simply being themselves. And you know what, I want to give that finger right back, perpetually. You get what you deserve, but the rest of us don't deserve to have to deal with your s*** like this all the time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why do people want loser Gillum to run again?
He lost a swing state in a blue wave.
He is a bad candidate and should be removed from electoral politics just like Ted cruz should be on SCOTUS or a federal court rather than the senate.

From what we saw on the campaign trail, that clearly wasn't the case. There was nothing else he could've done.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mark Hertling is one of the people I would consider for governor or senator as a candidate recruit.

[lfromnj]

Why do people want loser Gillum to run again?
He lost a swing state in a blue wave.
He is a bad candidate and should be removed from electoral politics just like Ted cruz should be on SCOTUS or a federal court rather than the senate.

I actually agree with you about Gillum. As for the Ted Cruz part... are you f***ing serious? Ted Cruz should crawl back into the damp, dark cave that he belongs in. Anyway, I digress, Gillum looked to be a better than expected candidate, especially for people like myself that were worried about him winning the primary; since he was consistently leading in polls, was charismatic, progressive, and a historic candidate. All this possibly made him (and admittedly, people like me that grew to like him) overconfident about his chances. But clearly his race, alleged corruption, and the state he was running in just proved to be too much to overcome. He needs to stay in Tallahassee and never show his face outside of it ever again.

I don't know what more I could say about Florida at this point. But I will say this, I am at least glad that this disaster of an election is all over even as it has drastic negative long-term consequences for the state and the country. Floridian voters gave their fellow Floridians and other American citizens the middle finger by simply being themselves. And you know what, I want to give that finger right back, perpetually. You get what you deserve, but the rest of us don't deserve to have to deal with your s*** like this all the time.

Im saying Ted Cruz belongs in the judicary from a conservative perspective as a neutral bystander. He does not belong in electoral politics. Anyway obama won florida twice so it wasn't race that was the problem completely.

[Calthrina950]

Scott won "Late Deciders" in FL according to CNN Exit Polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida/senate

10% of Voters decided in the "Last Week" of the Campaign and Scott won them 52-48 and with it the Senate Seat.

I originally thought that the late Deciders would break Nelsons way.

That is interesting. And I assume Scott won the Election Day vote as well. It's interesting how he has now won three close elections in a row.

Scott is a major scumbag, but he focuses on a few talking points like a laser. Jobs.  Low Taxes.  The Economy.  And he projects well as a "leader".  All of this has enabled him to overcome having perpetuated the biggest Medicare Fraud in history, avoiding being criminally charged, and taking the fifth 75 times in a deposition.

This result in Florida still surprises me, though. What are the long-term implications of Scott's victory, and of DeSantis's? Is Florida truly becoming more Republican? Will Democrats even have a chance here in 2020? I'm not so sure now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Scott won "Late Deciders" in FL according to CNN Exit Polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida/senate

10% of Voters decided in the "Last Week" of the Campaign and Scott won them 52-48 and with it the Senate Seat.

I originally thought that the late Deciders would break Nelsons way.

That is interesting. And I assume Scott won the Election Day vote as well. It's interesting how he has now won three close elections in a row.

Scott is a major scumbag, but he focuses on a few talking points like a laser. Jobs.  Low Taxes.  The Economy.  And he projects well as a "leader".  All of this has enabled him to overcome having perpetuated the biggest Medicare Fraud in history, avoiding being criminally charged, and taking the fifth 75 times in a deposition.

This result in Florida still surprises me, though. What are the long-term implications of Scott's victory, and of DeSantis's? Is Florida truly becoming more Republican? Will Democrats even have a chance here in 2020? I'm not so sure now.

I can't say for sure about the long-term implications, but they will most likely be bad.

[Brittain33]

Now that Nelson has conceded I am unstickying this thread.

[completely dead account]

Not surprised the recount didn't change anything. Nelson was losing by too much and the votes were nearly finished.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd like to know if Nelson's net gain of 2000 more votes was due to the recount or to adding overseas votes. If the former, it would be pretty historic, since I don't think a recount has ever shifted more than 1000 votes before. It would point to massive dysfunction in vote counting, but we knew that already.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Scott won "Late Deciders" in FL according to CNN Exit Polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida/senate

10% of Voters decided in the "Last Week" of the Campaign and Scott won them 52-48 and with it the Senate Seat.

I originally thought that the late Deciders would break Nelsons way.

That is interesting. And I assume Scott won the Election Day vote as well. It's interesting how he has now won three close elections in a row.

Scott is a major scumbag, but he focuses on a few talking points like a laser. Jobs.  Low Taxes.  The Economy.  And he projects well as a "leader".  All of this has enabled him to overcome having perpetuated the biggest Medicare Fraud in history, avoiding being criminally charged, and taking the fifth 75 times in a deposition.

This result in Florida still surprises me, though. What are the long-term implications of Scott's victory, and of DeSantis's? Is Florida truly becoming more Republican? Will Democrats even have a chance here in 2020? I'm not so sure now.

It's a little more Democratic than before, but not by much.

FL has apparently elected Nikki Fried (D) Commissioner of Agriculture.

[Calthrina950]

Scott won "Late Deciders" in FL according to CNN Exit Polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida/senate

10% of Voters decided in the "Last Week" of the Campaign and Scott won them 52-48 and with it the Senate Seat.

I originally thought that the late Deciders would break Nelsons way.

That is interesting. And I assume Scott won the Election Day vote as well. It's interesting how he has now won three close elections in a row.

Scott is a major scumbag, but he focuses on a few talking points like a laser. Jobs.  Low Taxes.  The Economy.  And he projects well as a "leader".  All of this has enabled him to overcome having perpetuated the biggest Medicare Fraud in history, avoiding being criminally charged, and taking the fifth 75 times in a deposition.

This result in Florida still surprises me, though. What are the long-term implications of Scott's victory, and of DeSantis's? Is Florida truly becoming more Republican? Will Democrats even have a chance here in 2020? I'm not so sure now.

It's a little more Democratic than before, but not by much.

FL has apparently elected Nikki Fried (D) Commissioner of Agriculture.

I saw that. Fried won by ~6,000 votes, with the recount completed. It's amazing how she managed to pull out a victory, for a much less prominent office, while both Nelson and Gillum went down. Given that you are a long-time Floridian, and that you live in a very Republican part of Florida, could you provide any insight into why Nelson and Gillum lost?

[brucejoel99]

Rick Scott took down a guy who has been undefeated in general elections for 45 years and did it in a Democratic Year.


He was able to do that because he has been a good governor was extraordinarily lucky that Broward County sucks at competent ballot design.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems face a horrendous gerrymander in FL and OH as a whole, and FL 27 was in South Beach anyways. It will be years before Dems can really win statewide offices in FL.

[Skye]

I'd like to know if Nelson's net gain of 2000 more votes was due to the recount or to adding overseas votes. If the former, it would be pretty historic, since I don't think a recount has ever shifted more than 1000 votes before. It would point to massive dysfunction in vote counting, but we knew that already.

When the official results were reported, the tallies of DeSantis and Gillum also changed, even though there wasn't a manual recount for the gubernatorial race. So maybe it's due to the overseas votes. Also, I read somewhere that Nelson netted some votes in Broward during the recount, so maybe both possibilities are true?

[brucejoel99]

In related news, Brenda Snipes has submitted her resignation as Broward's Supervisor of Elections, effective in January.

[Calthrina950]

In related news, Brenda Snipes has submitted her resignation as Broward's Supervisor of Elections, effective in January.

Good to hear. She is a very incompetent woman, and given her prior issues, her resignation was long overdue.

[2016]

I don't buy this idea by some Users here that Democrats stayed home in 2018 in FL:

2016 General Election
Active Registered Voters: 12,863,773
Ballots Cast: 9,580,489
Voter Turnout: 74,5%

https://results.elections.myflorida.com/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/8/2016&DATAMODE=

2018 General Election
Active Registered Voters: 13,278,070
Ballots Cast: 8,318,824
Voter Turnout: 62,65%

https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus

There were 414,297 newly registered Voters in FL in 2018.

I think in 2020 we will have over 10M Floridians casting Ballots in the POTUS Race.

After the 2020 Census Florida almost certainly gain a Congressional District bringing it to 28 Districts and bringing the Total Electoral Votes for the 2024 POTUS Race to 30.

[Brittain33]

Is there any state which has been consistently viewed and treated as a swing state for as long as Florida has—since the 2000 election? Wisconsin may be the only one, but it went through a period in Obama's elections of being seen as off the table for Republicans. Ohio and Iowa fit the bill until 2016 when they seemed to drift off into Republican territory.  

Florida was highly contested and seen as genuinely in doubt in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and will be seen that way again in 2020 unless the Dem is stuck far behind in polls.

In 2000, as I recall, the battleground states included Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida. Colorado, Virginia, and of course Arizona and North Carolina were off the table as likely Republican states.

[2016]

Is there any state which has been consistently viewed and treated as a swing state for as long as Florida has—since the 2000 election? Wisconsin may be the only one, but it went through a period in Obama's elections of being seen as off the table for Republicans. Ohio and Iowa fit the bill until 2016 when they seemed to drift off into Republican territory.  

Florida was highly contested and seen as genuinely in doubt in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and will be seen that way again in 2020 unless the Dem is stuck far behind in polls.

In 2000, as I recall, the battleground states included Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida. Colorado, Virginia, and of course Arizona and North Carolina were off the table as likely Republican states.

I still think 2016 was a Realignment Election and the GAINS Democrats made this year by winning 2 House Seats in IA, winning the WI & MI Governor Races + winning a House Seat in MI will only be temporary.

I can see Republicans winning the entire Rust Belt by 2024 (PA, MI, WI, OH, IA and MN). Conversly I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats take VA, NC, AZ and maybe TX in 2024.

Florida is definitly trending a bit more Republican right now.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any state which has been consistently viewed and treated as a swing state for as long as Florida has—since the 2000 election? Wisconsin may be the only one, but it went through a period in Obama's elections of being seen as off the table for Republicans. Ohio and Iowa fit the bill until 2016 when they seemed to drift off into Republican territory.  

Florida was highly contested and seen as genuinely in doubt in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and will be seen that way again in 2020 unless the Dem is stuck far behind in polls.

In 2000, as I recall, the battleground states included Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida. Colorado, Virginia, and of course Arizona and North Carolina were off the table as likely Republican states.

I still think 2016 was a Realignment Election and the GAINS Democrats made this year by winning 2 House Seats in IA, winning the WI & MI Governor Races + winning a House Seat in MI will only be temporary.

I can see Republicans winning the entire Rust Belt by 2024 (PA, MI, WI, OH, IA and MN). Conversly I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats take VA, NC, AZ and maybe TX in 2024.

Florida is definitly trending a bit more Republican right now.

This is my belief as well. I think that within the next 10-20 years, the Southwest and Southeast will be primarily voting Democratic, while Appalachia, the Midwest, and the Mountain West will be solidly Republican. Nevada, Colorado, the states of the West Coast, New Mexico, and Virginia will all be Safe Democratic states, while Arizona will be lean Democratic and Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina tossup states. Conversely, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, and probably either Michigan or Wisconsin (or perhaps both), will be Safe Republican states, Illinois a Safe Democratic state, and Minnesota, as well as Pennsylvania, tossups.

[TheSaint250]

And the mess continues:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/19/dem-staffer-says-party-leaders-knew-altered-forms/2054721002/

[UncleSam]

Is there any state which has been consistently viewed and treated as a swing state for as long as Florida has—since the 2000 election? Wisconsin may be the only one, but it went through a period in Obama's elections of being seen as off the table for Republicans. Ohio and Iowa fit the bill until 2016 when they seemed to drift off into Republican territory.  

Florida was highly contested and seen as genuinely in doubt in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and will be seen that way again in 2020 unless the Dem is stuck far behind in polls.

In 2000, as I recall, the battleground states included Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida. Colorado, Virginia, and of course Arizona and North Carolina were off the table as likely Republican states.

I still think 2016 was a Realignment Election and the GAINS Democrats made this year by winning 2 House Seats in IA, winning the WI & MI Governor Races + winning a House Seat in MI will only be temporary.

I can see Republicans winning the entire Rust Belt by 2024 (PA, MI, WI, OH, IA and MN). Conversly I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats take VA, NC, AZ and maybe TX in 2024.

Florida is definitly trending a bit more Republican right now.

NC isn’t really in the same class as those other states. NC was a state Obama won on the back of huge minority turnout in 2008 but it has actually trended R the last two elections. Additionally, it is a state with a massive white rural population that much more closely resembles the south than, say, the DC suburbs.

AZ is interesting because Romney won it so handily but Trump is such a uniquely bad fit for it. I do think AZ is going to end up going the way of VA at some point, though probably not as quickly or as completely as, for example, GA.

TX is such a large state that 2024 is too early for it to become a D leaning state or even a toss up honestly. In a D+8 environment Beto (the best possible Dem candidate) lost it by 3. It leans at least ten points right of the rest of the nation and is such a large state that it’ll take a long time before it becomes a true swing state again. It’ll be contested on some level and perhaps even won by the Dems if there is a large enough presidential landslide at some point, but it won’t vote to the left of the nation until at least the 2030s barring a massive realignment.

[Xing]

I think this election is pretty clear evidence that the "Midwest is gone for dems lol" talking point was, at the very least, jumping the gun. Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Wolf were thought to be highly vulnerable, and most people didn't think that Democrats had a rat's chance in hell of beating Walker or House members like Blum or Young. While Ohio in particular looks pretty bad for Democrats going forward, it's clear that Wisconsin is still far from being a red state. Consider that the best that Republicans could do there in a wave year was a 5-6% win, while Baldwin won by 11%. Also, lol at the idea that Minnesota is turning red.

I think that population growth/changes (especially given the rural/urban divide) are better indicators for trends than demographics or region. If demographics aren't destiny in Florida or North Carolina, they're not necessarily destiny in Minnesota or Wisconsin either. The rural/urban divide doesn't bode well for Democrats in Iowa or Ohio, but it suggests that Minnesota will remain a tough one for Republicans, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will remain competitive for the foreseeable future.

[Alabama_Indy10]

So why did Matt Caldwell lose the Ag Commissioner race? Is he unpopular?