Iraq says YES

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just now. Details soon.

[Angel of Death]

Sunnis are going to be very pissed about this. They got three governorates to vote against it, but they came up short in Ninawa.

[minionofmidas]

Overall turnout 63%
Overall yes vote 79%
The constitution would have failed anyways if there were 2/3 majorities against it in 3 provinces, giving the Sunnis a veto if they voted en bloc and in large numbers. There were 2/3 majorities against it in 2 provinces. There were majorities against it in 3 provinces. Nineveh (incl. Mossul, and a Kurdish minority that probably cast three votes each once again as in the elections...) voted 55% against. I'd like to see a full regional breakdown, though.

[minionofmidas]

 YES (%)  NO (%) 
Anbar  3.04  96.9 
Babil  94.56  5.44 
Baghdad  77.7  22.3 
Basra  96.02  3.98 
Dohuk  99.13  0.87 
Diyala  51.27  48.73 
Irbil  99.36  0.64 
Kerbala  96.58  3.42 
Kirkuk  62.91  37.09 
Maysan  97.79  2.21 
Muthanna  98.65  1.35 
Najaf  95.82  4.18 
Nineveh  44.92  55.08* 
Qadisiya  96.74  3.32 
Salahuddin  18.25  81.75 
Sulaimaniya  98.96  1.04 
Dhiqar  97.15  2.85 
Wasit  95.7  4.3 
National total  78.59  21.41 

Haven't found turnout data yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

watch out now for civil war followed by a new dictatorship and possibly theocracy.

[phk]

What was the Sunni breakdown, Shia breakdown and Kurd breakdown?


It seems as if Iran has one country down and several more left on building up a regional Shiite empire.

[ATFFL]

.....................YES (%)....NO (%) 
Anbar............3.04.........96.9 
Babil..............94.56.......5.44 
Baghdad.......77.7.........22.3 
Basra............96.02.......3.98 
Dohuk...........99.13.......0.87 
Diyala...........51.27.......48.73 
Irbil...............99.36.......0.64 
Kerbala.........96.58.......3.42 
Kirkuk...........62.91.......37.09 
Maysan.........97.79......2.21 
Muthanna.....98.65......1.35 
Najaf............95.82.......4.18 
Nineveh.......44.92.......55.08* 
Qadisiya......96.74.......3.32 
Salahuddin..18.25.......81.75 
Sulaimaniya.98.96.......1.04 
Dhiqar.........97.15.......2.85 
Wasit..........95.7.........4.3 
National......78.59.......21.41 

Cleaned up Lewis' numbers a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

What was the Sunni breakdown, Shia breakdown and Kurd breakdown?

That's impossible to tell, as there's no definitive way to know which groups turned out in which provinces.  However....the three provinces in which the YES vote was about 99% (Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaimaniya) are all heavily Kurdish.  In the January parliamentary election, they all went for the main Kurdish list by more than 90% margins.  All of the other provinces in which the YES vote broke 90% are heavily Shiite.  (In January, all of them gave the United Iraqi Alliance--the main Shiite list--more than 67%.)

So it's the other six provinces--Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk (the province is also known as "Tamim"), Ninevah, and Salahuddin--where I'm guessing most of the Sunni Arabs live, either in the majority or as a significant minority.  You can check out the parliamentary results in those provinces here:

http://www.patrickruffini.com/archives/2005/02/the_iraqi_elect.php

and here:

http://www.patrickruffini.com/archives/IraqResults.xls (Excel file)

Of course, hardly any Sunnis voted in the January election, but those are the only six provinces in which Yawar's "The Iraqis" list (the largest Sunni group at the time) broke the 1% mark.  (It got less than 2% nationally.)

[12th Doctor]

I noticed that this was up on the Yahoo Homepage... for about 1 hour.  The "2000 Dead" thing has been up all day, however.

[Jake]

Total crap. Yahoo doesn't mention it, CNN.com buries it under crap about 2000 deaths, and MSNBC doesn't mention it.

[Angel of Death]

If you guys are thinking this unequivocally falls into the "good news" category then you're being pretty naive. If the Sunnis were successful in reaching their criterium for rejection, then it would have been a strong signal to them that their voices matter politically. The fact that it's "close, but no cigar" will possibly make them support the insurgency more. Notice how conspirationally quiet it was during referendum day?

[Jake]

If you guys are thinking this unequivocally falls into the "good news" category then you're being pretty naive. If the Sunnis were successful in reaching their criterium for rejection, then it would have been a strong signal to them that their voices matter politically. The fact that it's "close, but no cigar" will possibly make them support the insurgency more. Notice how conspirationally quiet it was during referendum day?

With enemies like these, how can any decent person NOT like George Galloway?

Right. Go back to sleep

[minionofmidas]

I would like to point out that there is an article linked at the BBC website (at least it still was, yesterday) written at the time of the referendum that turnout in Kurdish areas was apparently quite low - in stark contrast to the elections.
Now, my local newspaper states that on the official results, Kurdish areas once again had well-nigh 100% turnout.
This is no proof, obviously. I need more info.
But for now, I would assume it *possible* that Nineveh was stolen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But for now, I would assume it *possible* that Nineveh was stolen.

I'm pretty sure that there was a lot of fraud there by both sides. But then again when you set up a system where three provinces can veto the whole thing if they get enough "no" votes in each even if the overall pass rate is something like 70% you have to expect that sort of thing, especially bearing in mind the context of the whole thing.

[minionofmidas]

But for now, I would assume it *possible* that Nineveh was stolen.

I'm pretty sure that there was a lot of fraud there by both sides. But then again when you set up a system where three provinces can veto the whole thing if they get enough "no" votes in each even if the overall pass rate is something like 70% you have to expect that sort of thing, especially bearing in mind the context of the whole thing.

Unfortunately yes...although what follows from this?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

although what follows from this?

More political limbo, followed by new elections which will result in more political limbo and probable attempts to refiddle the constitution and... repeat ad nausem.
Meanwhile more nutters will keep blowing themselves up. I've heard that they're having problems recruiting new sucide bombers, which is good.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah (same would have happened if the constitution had failed).
I mean, are there any political or logical implications in these facts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah (same would have happened if the constitution had failed).

Similer; there wouldn't have been the new elections IIRC. But another attempt at a constitution would have had to be attempted, although this time with the Sunnis in a stronger position and all the other groups being somewhat pissed off. But the overall pattern wouldn't be very different.

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Hmm... that the Sunni leaders can't even outfraud the Kurds in a province where they're the largest group?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah (same would have happened if the constitution had failed).

Similer; there wouldn't have been the new elections IIRC. But another attempt at a constitution would have had to be attempted, although this time with the Sunnis in a stronger position and all the other groups being somewhat pissed off. But the overall pattern wouldn't be very different.

Yes, there would have been new elections - for a new constitutional convention to supercede the failed first one. While now, the constitution is at least nominally valid and there'll be ordinary parliamentary elections.