🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[urutzizu]

Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a feeling that there will be significant tactical voting in both Saxony (for the CDU) and to a lesser extent in  Brandenburg (for the SPD).

Tactical Voting could screw quite a few things up, especially in Saxony, if it is done on the constituency vote but not the list vote, as happened in 2017. There the AFD won a plurality of the List vote in Saxony (27,0%), but won only 3/16 constituency seats, because of tactical voting in favour of the CDU on the constituency vote. At the time this was not an issue for the AFD, as the federal election law completely compensates overhang seats, so the AFD just got more list seats instead.

Now this is where the problem is: The Saxony election law (and the Brandenburg law) does not provide for this. In Saxony there is only allowed to be 1 Compensation Seat for 1 Overhang Seat. Without going into the math too much, if the CDU again sweeps the Constituency seats, but only gets about 25-30% of the List Vote, they will be overrepresented in the Landtag, and the AFD will especially suffer. Coalitions could then be possible which did not actually get a plurality of the vote. Prepare for legal Battles in this Case.
In Brandenburg Compensation Seats are only awarded if a party overhangs by at least 3 seats. This too could allow for small misrepresentation in the Landtag. However the Major parties are expected to divide up the constituency mandates in Brandenburg quite evenly, so it should not be an issue. 

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a feeling that there will be significant tactical voting in both Saxony (for the CDU) and to a lesser extent in  Brandenburg (for the SPD).

Tactical Voting could screw quite a few things up, especially in Saxony, if it is done on the constituency vote but not the list vote, as happened in 2017. There the AFD won a plurality of the List vote in Saxony (27,0%), but won only 3/16 constituency seats, because of tactical voting in favour of the CDU on the constituency vote. At the time this was not an issue for the AFD, as the federal election law completely compensates overhang seats, so the AFD just got more list seats instead.

I think tactical voting will not play that big a role tomorrow as in 2017. The Greens have gained such huge self-esteem over the past two years that their supporters are going to give both their votes to them.

Now this is where the problem is: The Saxony election law (and the Brandenburg law) does not provide for this. In Saxony there is only allowed to be 1 Compensation Seat for 1 Overhang Seat. Without going into the math too much, if the CDU again sweeps the Constituency seats, but only gets about 25-30% of the List Vote, they will be overrepresented in the Landtag, and the AFD will especially suffer. Coalitions could then be possible which did not actually get a plurality of the vote. Prepare for legal Battles in this Case.
In Brandenburg Compensation Seats are only awarded if a party overhangs by at least 3 seats. This too could allow for small misrepresentation in the Landtag. However the Major parties are expected to divide up the constituency mandates in Brandenburg quite evenly, so it should not be an issue.  

Plus the limit of 30 list candidates for the AfD makes the whole mandate allocation even worse and more complicated.

[rob in cal]

Brandenburg could see lots of center right votes wasted with fdp and fw maybe missing threshold. Is it fair to consider them center right?

[urutzizu]

Brandenburg could see lots of center right votes wasted with fdp and fw maybe missing threshold. Is it fair to consider them center right?

The former yes, the latter is more of a protest party against the Building of Berlin-Brandenburg airport, a project infamous of its delays, incompetence, and overspending. Their Leader Peter Vida, a German-hungarian, is broadly conservative however.
They could actually get into the Landtag even if they miss the threshold, as long as they win at least 1 constituency. Last time they did just that, when they won the seat of Teltow-Fläming III, near the Airport. This time Eyes will be on the Constituency of Barnim II, where Vida is running. Most say he has realistic Chances of Winning there.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Brandenburg could see lots of center right votes wasted with fdp and fw maybe missing threshold. Is it fair to consider them center right?

The FDP is basically even more than center-right. That party had basically been the protest vote party No. 1 before the Pirates and the AfD were funded. The only difference between the blues and the yellows is the object of agitation.
I still remember when the FDP received 9,6% in hostile territory at its zenith in 2006: in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (It's like Justin Amash getting 9,6% in Mississippi.) Psephologist discovered that nearly 100% of all FDP didn't know what the party stood for. Their votes were merely protest votes, and they belonged to the "One oughta be allowed to say..." faction.

Black-white Model Lindner knows about the division of his party's support base; half of them are wealthy entrepreneurs and landlords who want as many immigrants migrate to Germany. The other half belongs to the above-mentioned right-wing "One oughta be allowed to say..." group. That's why Lindner feels called to do make assertions like that one famous  bakery narrative, which he immediately received a shitstorm for.

The Free Voters, however, are as center as they can get.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The former yes, the latter is more of a protest party against the Building of Berlin-Brandenburg airport, a project infamous of its delays, incompetence, and overspending. Their Leader Peter Vida, a German-hungarian, is broadly conservative however.
They could actually get into the Landtag even if they miss the threshold, as long as they win at least 1 constituency. Last time they did just that, when they won the seat of Teltow-Fläming III, near the Airport. This time Eyes will be on the Constituency of Barnim II, where Vida is running. Most say he has realistic Chances of Winning there.

Yes, they can, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut Christoph Schulze had won that constituency south of Berlin several times as a Social Democrat before, plus he had been a member of the Landtag since 1990. His name recognition was so huge that he was able to win a direct mandate under a different party label. It was a big mistake of the Free Voters to freeze Schulze, who could have defended that constituency, therefore making the FW circumvent the 5% threshold again, out of their party. Peter Vida, who only received 9,8% of the vote last time, is simply way too unknown to win his constituency northeast of Berlin.

[Astatine]

I personally predict the following results ("confidence intervals" in brackets):

Saxony
CDU: 31.5 % (29-33)
AfD: 24.6 % (23-27)
Left: 13.5 % (12-15)
Green: 10.8 % (10-12)
SPD: 7.5 % (6-9)
FDP: 5.1 % (4-6)
FW: 4.0 % (3-5)

Brandenburg
SPD 23.4 % (21-25)
AfD 21.6 % (19-23)
CDU 16.2 % (15-17)
Left 13.8 % (13-15)
Green 12.5 % (10-15)
FDP 4.9 % (4-6)
BVB/FW 4.4 % (4-6)

I assume that the parties of the respective incumbent governors will get a slight incumbency boost (like visible in the most recent polls), especially on cost of Greens and the respective other "major" party (so SPD in Saxony and CDU in Brandenburg), only to avoid making the AfD largest force. AfD will neither over- nor underperform significantly but likely be in the low to mid twenties in both states with stronger performance in Saxony. I could see the possibilities for some more surprises, for instance that SPD performs horribly badly in Saxony just slightly above 6 % or that FDP fails in both states, while BVB/FW narrowly make it into Parliament.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Péter Vida is not unknown in his constituency Barnim II. He is a Member of the Landtag, leader of BVB/FW and Spitzenkandidat (lead candidate).

Since 2003 he is a member of the city council of Barnim Bernau.
BVB/FW achieved the highest percentage of votes in the municipal elections this year, at 21.5%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Leipzig is twice as high as in the last state election and general election like:

https://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/landtagswahlen/landtagswahl-2019/wahlbeteiligung/

In Dresden the same:

https://www.dresden.de/de/rathaus/politik/wahlen/landtagswahl/001_wahlergebnisse.php

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Péter Vida is not unknown in his constituency Barnim II. He is a Member of the Landtag, leader of BVB/FW and Spitzenkandidat (lead candidate).

Since 2003 he is a member of the city council of Barnim Bernau.
BVB/FW achieved the highest percentage of votes in the municipal elections this year, at 21.5%.

The constituency Barnim II consists of two cities: Bernau (≈ 40,000 citizens) and Panketal (≈ 20,000 citizens). It's correct that the FW emerged narrowly as the most successful party from the municipal election in Bernau. In Panketal, however, they only came sixth with 9.1%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Turnout in Leipzig is twice as high as in the last state election and general election like:

https://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/landtagswahlen/landtagswahl-2019/wahlbeteiligung/

Leipzig is the green isle amidst the deep blue sea. Good news for the Antifa, bad news for democracy.

[Tender Branson]

More people have already voted now at noon than during the whole Election Day in 2014.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

To revisit the municipal elections:
The public prosecution department has conducted a criminal investigation due to election fraud.
An anonymous election assistant has told the newspaper Tagesspiegel that he rigged the ballot in the May 26 municipal election at a polling location in Oder-Spree County, Brandenburg, by allocating about 50 AfD votes to the Greens. (The citizens have several votes in the city council election, which they can give to several candidates from different parties.) He justified his crime by stating that "his heart beats on his left". In case he is finally convicted, he can be imposed a fine or be sentenced up to five years' imprisonment.

Source: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/afd-stimmen-fuer-die-gruenen-gezaehlt-wahlbetrug-in-brandenburg-ist-fall-fuer-den-staatsanwalt/24937160.html

[Keep Calm and ...]

The public prosecution department has NOT conducted a criminal investigation due to election fraud.
And a recount showed that there was no election fraud.

https://correctiv.org/faktencheck/politik/2019/09/01/nein-die-staatsanwaltschaft-ermittelt-bisher-nicht-im-fall-eines-angeblichen-wahlbetrugs-in-brandenburg

[Tender Branson]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The public prosecution department has NOT conducted a criminal investigation due to election fraud.
And a recount showed that there was no election fraud.

https://correctiv.org/faktencheck/politik/2019/09/01/nein-die-staatsanwaltschaft-ermittelt-bisher-nicht-im-fall-eines-angeblichen-wahlbetrugs-in-brandenburg

It has. They are evaluating an Anfangsverdacht.
The left-wing extremist site correctiv.org, which is known for regularly spreading alternative facts, is not a trustworthy site.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

[Tender Branson]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

Higher turnout usually means that the result will be closer to what the polls have shown and therefore surprises are less likely.

High turnout in the cities will benefit the Greens and in the rural areas CDU and AfD of course.

We could see a very polarized urban/rural map in Saxony today.

[Tender Branson]

Until 2pm, turnout was

* 12% higher in Saxony when compared with 2014 (excluding postal ballots)
* 9% higher in Brandenburg when compared with 2014 (excluding postal ballots)

* 21% higher in Leipzig when compared with 2014 (including postal ballots)
* 24% higher in Dresden when compared with 2014 (including postal ballots)

The thing is that the state numbers do not include postal ballots in turnout estimates, while the big cities do.

In Dresden, postal ballots alone went from 16% turnout to 28% this year (+12%).

This means we could see a turnout increase for Saxony as a whole of ca. 15-20% with postal ballots compared to 2014.

65-70% turnout for Saxony is possible and some 65% for Brandenburg, up from 48-49%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In Dresden, postal ballots alone went from 16% turnout to 28% this year (+12%).

Dresden's high turnout could be interesting. Unlike Leipzig, that city very conservative and neoliberal. That could indicate a high voter mobilization for the CDU, AfD and FDP.

[Astatine]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

I personally believe that a high turnout in urban centers will hurt the Free Democrats in Saxony. Holger Zastrow ran a very poor campaign (considering that the Liberals have a much stronger base in Saxony than in Brandenburg, 5 % in polling is a bad result), the FDP in Saxony is rather more of a conservative center-right party with free market elements (they're completely anti-cannabis legalization for instance), and Zastrow personally appeals to the right which could easily alienate the urban, progressive and rather young base which brought the FDP into the Bavarian Parliament narrowly last year (they overperformed among young voters). Strong turnout in urban centers could easily make the reentrance of FDP into Saxonian Parliament more of a nailbiter. I wouldn't be surprised if they failed to enter Saxonian Parliament but make the run in Brandenburg.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

I personally believe that a high turnout in urban centers will hurt the Free Democrats in Saxony. Holger Zastrow ran a very poor campaign (considering that the Liberals have a much stronger base in Saxony than in Brandenburg, 5 % in polling is a bad result), the FDP in Saxony is rather more of a conservative center-right party with free market elements (they're completely anti-cannabis legalization for instance), and Zastrow personally appeals to the right which could easily alienate the urban, progressive and rather young base which brought the FDP into the Bavarian Parliament narrowly last year (they overperformed among young voters). Strong turnout in urban centers could easily make the reentrance of FDP into Saxonian Parliament more of a nailbiter. I wouldn't be surprised if they failed to enter Saxonian Parliament but make the run in Brandenburg.

The FDP's stronghold in Saxony in the federal election 2017 was Dresden. Thus, a high turnout in that city could redound to their advantage.

[Tender Branson]

The high turnout in Leipzig is tapering off:

https://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/landtagswahlen/landtagswahl-2019/wahlbeteiligung/

In the morning it looked like federal election style turnout (75%), now it is going to end up closer to the EU election in May (62%). Probably 64-66%.

That would still be 20-22% higher than during the record-low-turnout 2014 state election.

[parochial boy]

You really need to be sceptical of overanalysing turnout reports as they are, at best, an unreliable indicator of what is to come. Just because turn out goes up somewhere, doesn't necessarily mean it's the same kind of voter turning up.

[Astatine]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

I personally believe that a high turnout in urban centers will hurt the Free Democrats in Saxony. Holger Zastrow ran a very poor campaign (considering that the Liberals have a much stronger base in Saxony than in Brandenburg, 5 % in polling is a bad result), the FDP in Saxony is rather more of a conservative center-right party with free market elements (they're completely anti-cannabis legalization for instance), and Zastrow personally appeals to the right which could easily alienate the urban, progressive and rather young base which brought the FDP into the Bavarian Parliament narrowly last year (they overperformed among young voters). Strong turnout in urban centers could easily make the reentrance of FDP into Saxonian Parliament more of a nailbiter. I wouldn't be surprised if they failed to enter Saxonian Parliament but make the run in Brandenburg.

The FDP's stronghold in Saxony in the federal election 2017 was Dresden. Thus, a high turnout in that city could redound to their advantage.

That was a federal campaign, in which the federal FDP ran on a different platform than the FDP in Saxony this year. While Christian Lindner has (or had) strong appeal among the younger urban voters, Holger Zastrow lacks it. Zastrow refused to participate in the leader interview series of Tilo Jung (whose channel has broad reach among younger voters), but gets interviewed by Russia Today instead. FDP even failed to submit their answers for the WahlNavi mobile app for weeks. In a recent ZEIT portrait about himself, Zastrow was quoted that he does not care that much about civil rights but rather about economy (typical "old FDP"), he uses typical right-pandering terms like that he's not a career politician (tho he has been leading his party since 1999...) and advocates a minority government of CDU and FDP which could be tolerated by AfD in several cases. He was critisized by his own party members and only got about 70 % of delegate vote as their leader for the election.
Regardless of what I think about his positions, but I doubt that the way Zastrow goes will be successful as the position as pragmatic softly-immigration-critical center-right party with slightly conservative and liberal elements is already occupied by FW (who could get a substential number of votes, 3-4 % are realistic) and CDU to some degree.