🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Pick Up the Phone]

Same in RLP:

Indeed. All the more stupid is the idea that the CDU should become 'more conservative' in order to draw protest voters from the AfD. Completely nonsensical. The AfD is faltering in support and does not pose a strategic danger to a permanent CDU majority. But the Greens do - and the CDU leadership knows it.

The choice is clear: Modernize the party even further (i.e., become more progressive on climate change and social issues; recruit more female and minority candidates; develop strategies to succeed in urban areas etc.) or face the consequences sooner rather than later.

[buritobr]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

[Astatine]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

That was the result for the district of Trier, which is not fully congruent with the city of Trier (some outer parts of the town belong to another district). In the town itself, the Left failed to cross a hypothetical 5 % threshold with 4.7 % (https://wahlen2021.rlp.de/de/ltw/wahlen/2021/ergebnisse/0002110000000.html).

[Estrella]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

That was the result for the district of Trier, which is not fully congruent with the city of Trier (some outer parts of the town belong to another district). In the town itself, the Left failed to cross a hypothetical 5 % threshold with 4.7 % (https://wahlen2021.rlp.de/de/ltw/wahlen/2021/ergebnisse/0002110000000.html).

I've learned I shouldn't ask this question about German local government, but what's the point?

edit: the results page also calls it a "kresifreie Stadt", which... huh?

[Cassius]

Same in RLP:

Indeed. All the more stupid is the idea that the CDU should become 'more conservative' in order to draw protest voters from the AfD. Completely nonsensical. The AfD is faltering in support and does not pose a strategic danger to a permanent CDU majority. But the Greens do - and the CDU leadership knows it.

The choice is clear: Modernize the party even further (i.e., become more progressive on climate change and social issues; recruit more female and minority candidates; develop strategies to succeed in urban areas etc.) or face the consequences sooner rather than later.

I don’t mean to be disputatious on this issue (after all you’re German and I’m not), but surely it would be an overstatement to extrapolate the results of these state elections to the national level? After all, Kretschmann is, as per my understanding, on the right wing of the Green Party (and an elderly white man to boot!), who  has taken a fairly unsympathetic line towards refugees and has banned the burqa. I assume this is not particularly representative of where the federal Green Party wants to go? Meanwhile in Rheinland-Pfalz only just over 10% of CDU switchers went to the Greens (as per the diagram in one of the posts above). Surely this is too low a percentage to make generalisations at the national level, especially since (again according to that diagram), 10% of the Greens’ new voters were made up of AfD switchers, yet it hardly seems likely that the AfD will suffer major losses in that direction at the federal level.

Of course, I could simply be misreading the nature of those diagrams, as we don’t really have them in British politics.

[Astatine]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

That was the result for the district of Trier, which is not fully congruent with the city of Trier (some outer parts of the town belong to another district). In the town itself, the Left failed to cross a hypothetical 5 % threshold with 4.7 % (https://wahlen2021.rlp.de/de/ltw/wahlen/2021/ergebnisse/0002110000000.html).

I've learned I shouldn't ask this question about German local government, but what's the point?

edit: the results page also calls it a "kresifreie Stadt", which... huh?

Oops, well, I prefer to use "district" over "constituency" in an American secular blog.

The city of Trier is "kreisfrei", so it is comparable to an independent city in the US. The Kreise - which are comparable to counties - are occasionally called districts too, but I referred to the constituency of Trier. The city itself is too large to be encompassed in one constituency, so parts of it belong to another one.

And in the constituency (that's the Spiegel Online Map) of Trier, the Left scored 5.0 %, but in the whole town of which some parts are located in another constituency, the Left got only 4.7 % of the votes.

I should use proper terms in the future to avoid confusions, German local government on County level isn't all that difficult. There are counties (Kreise) and independent cities (kreisfreie Städte), plus three "Kommunalverbände besonderer Art" (special type of county where an independent city was merged with a county - I happen to live in one out of those three ).

[Estrella]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

That was the result for the district of Trier, which is not fully congruent with the city of Trier (some outer parts of the town belong to another district). In the town itself, the Left failed to cross a hypothetical 5 % threshold with 4.7 % (https://wahlen2021.rlp.de/de/ltw/wahlen/2021/ergebnisse/0002110000000.html).

I've learned I shouldn't ask this question about German local government, but what's the point?

edit: the results page also calls it a "kresifreie Stadt", which... huh?

Oops, well, I prefer to use "district" over "constituency" in an American secular blog.

The city of Trier is "kreisfrei", so it is comparable to an independent city in the US. The Kreise - which are comparable to counties - are occasionally called districts too, but I referred to the constituency of Trier. The city itself is too large to be encompassed in one constituency, so parts of it belong to another one.

And in the constituency (that's the Spiegel Online Map) of Trier, the Left scored 5.0 %, but in the whole town of which some parts are located in another constituency, the Left got only 4.7 % of the votes.

I should use proper terms in the future to avoid confusions, German local government on County level isn't all that difficult. There are counties (Kreise) and independent cities (kreisfreie Städte), plus three "Kommunalverbände besonderer Art" (special type of county where an independent city was merged with a county - I happen to live in one out of those three ).

Thanks! I was just confused because I thought that district = Kreis.

My introduction to German local government was minionofmidas' thread on AAD about Frankfurt municipal politics and Ausländerbeirate, so I guess jumped in at the deep end

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Results of the Hessian municipal elections

CDU	28.2%	(-0,7%)
SPD	23.3%	(-5.2%)
Grüne	19.4%	(+8.1%)
AfD	8.1%	(-3.8%)
FDP	6.6%	(+0.2%)
Linke	4.1%	(+0.6%)
WG	5.2%	(-2.2%)
misc.	5.0%	(+2.9%)

municipal map	county map

WG stands forWählergemeinschaften ("voters' associations"), and their numbers tally with the results of all voters' associations having participated combined.

Three municipalities delivered a tie:
• Haiger (Lahn-Dill County, District Gießen, 19.400 inh.): between CDU and FWG-Haiger
• Antrifttal (Vogelsberg County, District Gießen, 1.800 inh.): between BLO and WGB
• Burghaun (Fulda County, District Kassel, 6.300 inh.): between CDU and SPD

In two municipalities, the FDP received a plurality of votes:
• Rosenthal (Waldeck-Frankenberg County, District Kassel, 2.200 inh.): 37.9%
• Bruchköbel (Main-Kinzig County, District Darmstadt, 20.500 inh.): 24.4%

The grey spots in the map are unincorporated areas:
• Forest Estate District Reinhardswald in Kassel County (District Kassel)
• Forest Estate District Spessart in Main-Kinzig County (District Darmstadt)

in three independent cities, the Greens received a plurality of votes:
• Darmstadt: 28,4%
• Kassel: 28.2%
• Frankfurt am Main: 25.6%

[Flyersfan232]

So what do the free voters do more and what do this mean for them in the future

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Thanks! I was just confused because I thought that district = Kreis.

My introduction to German local government was minionofmidas' thread on AAD about Frankfurt municipal politics and Ausländerbeirate, so I guess jumped in at the deep end

Some Bundesländer subdivide (or used to subdivide, respectively) their territory into Regierungsbezirke ("governing districts"): North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Bavaria, and Saxony (where they are called Direktionsbezirke, though).



Every Regierungsbezirk and every Bundesland without any Regierungbezirke  - barring the three Stadtstaaten ("city states") of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, which itself encompasses the cities of Bremen and Bremerhaven, of course - is subdivided into Landkreise or Kreise (counties) and kreisfreie Städte (independent cities), similarly to Virginia.
There are furthermore three special kinds of county-level subdivisions, which encompass particularly huge areas: Region Hannover (in Lower Saxony), Städteregion Aachen (in North Rhine-Westphalia), and Regionalverband Saarbrücken (in Saarland).

To make it more complicated, counties are further subdivided into Gemeindeverbände ("municipal associations"), which have very different names in different Bundesländer; they are called Samtgemeinden in Lower Saxony, or Ämter in Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg, or Gemeindeverwaltungsverband in Baden-Wuerttemberg and Hesse, for instance. But to make it even more complicated, counties can include independent cities themselves that are not part of a Gemeindeverband and are therefore called verbandsfrei.
And to make it even more fun and complicated, some Gemeindeverbände encompass a Kreis and a kreisfreie Stadt and are, as Astatine already wrote, called Kommunalverband besonderer Art ("municipal association of a special kind"). And there are moreover höhere Kommunalverbände where several counties form a municipal association, for example the Bezirksverband Pfalz, which encompasses all southern counties of Rhineland-Palatinate.



I hope that helped.

[Estrella]

snippy snip

I hope that helped.

Thank you, it did

[President Johnson]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

[Astatine]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

What do you think is gonna happen to Thomas Strobl? As CDU state chairman, it's not like he has no responsibility at all for the result and afaik, he didn't manage to win a seat on his own either.

[President Johnson]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

What do you think is gonna happen to Thomas Strobl? As CDU state chairman, it's not like he has no responsibility at all for the result and afaik, he didn't manage to win a seat on his own either.

Well, Strobl's gamble of not running as MP challenger has paid off so far. He for sure knew Winfried Kretschmann was not going to lose reelection, leaving the role of sacrafical lamb to Eisenmann, an equally lackluster candidate as he himself would have been. Ultimately I think his fate will depend on what Kretschmann does, who's free to pick his coalition partners at this point. If there is a new Green-CDU government, Strobl is likely to hang on as state chair, Interior Minister and Deputy MP and once again be the CDU's leading figure in that alliance. Just as he was in 2016, when he stepped in the role following Guido Wolf's humiliating defeat (remember that Strobl wanted to challenge Kretschmann back then, but lost a referendum among CDU members to Wolf back in 2015).

However, if the Greens decide to negotiate and form a trafficlight coalition, he'll probably have a hard time to remain state chair for longer than a few more months. And this time around he doesn't have any other job or office. Back in 2016, he was not just CDU leader in the state, but also a member of the Bundestag. A seat which he only resigned after the second Kretschmann cabinet was formed in May 2016. Strobl ran for a Landtag seat in 2021, but lost the race. So in the latter scenario, he's most likely done politically. I don't know whether there is a chance to return to the Bundestag this year, assuming he wants to. I guess it's too late for that since parties are already selecting their candidates for the September election. Given these circumstances, I could see the CDU really offering many concessions to Kretschmann just to hang onto power (with Strobl having a personal interest in a contination of the Green-CDU coalition).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Next election: Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, June 6, 2021

Governed by a CDU-SPD-Green coalition called "Kenya coalition" (sometimes also referred to as "Afghanistan coalition", mostly by its opponents) under Minister President Dr. Reiner Haseloff (CDU), who also happens to be the current Bundesrat President until November 1, 2021, according to schedule.



2016 results:





Four members of the AfD delegation have left both the party and the parliamentary group in the meantime, though; among them André Poggenburg, the former state party leader and gubernatorial candidate, who had been expelled from the party for remarks that were deemed xenophobic by the press. Moreover, one of the former delegates, Jens Diederichs, has been a member of the Free Voters since January 2020. He had previously been a member of the CDU group for 2½ after quitting the AfD, but he eventually decided to leave them, too, after running into considerable opposition from the CDU establishment.



Latest poll from January 27, 2021, by INSA:

CDU: 30% | AfD: 23 % | Linke: 16% | SPD: 10% | Grüne: 9% | FDP: 5%

The most crucial issue in the election campaigns is - aside from the handling of the corona pandemic and the vaccination chaos, of course - the controversy that arouse over the CDU coming to the AfD's assistance regarding the rejection of the proposed hike in the widely detested state TV head tax call Rundfunkbeitrag (at times euphemistically-provocatively called "democracy levy" by its mostly left-wing supporters), which is anathema to the vast majority of Germans. One ought to note that each state parliament has to approve the state TV tax hike proposed by the KEF in order for it to become effective. Since the CDU SA followed the AfD's example, the tax hike has been rejected as a consequence, which sparked outrage among Berlin's political establishment as well as among the general administrators of the state TV channels.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

What do you think is gonna happen to Thomas Strobl? As CDU state chairman, it's not like he has no responsibility at all for the result and afaik, he didn't manage to win a seat on his own either.

Well, Strobl's gamble of not running as MP challenger has paid off so far. He for sure knew Winfried Kretschmann was not going to lose reelection, leaving the role of sacrafical lamb to Eisenmann, an equally lackluster candidate as he himself would have been. Ultimately I think his fate will depend on what Kretschmann does, who's free to pick his coalition partners at this point. If there is a new Green-CDU government, Strobl is likely to hang on as state chair, Interior Minister and Deputy MP and once again be the CDU's leading figure in that alliance. Just as he was in 2016, when he stepped in the role following Guido Wolf's humiliating defeat (remember that Strobl wanted to challenge Kretschmann back then, but lost a referendum among CDU members to Wolf back in 2015).

However, if the Greens decide to negotiate and form a trafficlight coalition, he'll probably have a hard time to remain state chair for longer than a few more months. And this time around he doesn't have any other job or office. Back in 2016, he was not just CDU leader in the state, but also a member of the Bundestag. A seat which he only resigned after the second Kretschmann cabinet was formed in May 2016. Strobl ran for a Landtag seat in 2021, but lost the race. So in the latter scenario, he's most likely done politically. I don't know whether there is a chance to return to the Bundestag this year, assuming he wants to. I guess it's too late for that since parties are already selecting their candidates for the September election. Given these circumstances, I could see the CDU really offering many concessions to Kretschmann just to hang onto power (with Strobl having a personal interest in a contination of the Green-CDU coalition).

Agree that Strobl did well in sacrificing Eisenmann (who probably knew what was coming). He's in general much smarter than most people give him credit for. And this is why I don't see him being "done politically" in either scenario. It is indeed obvious that he would like to continue as Minister of the Interior and Deputy to Kretschmann in the case of a GRÜNE-CDU coalition. But I doubt that a 'traffic light scenario' would necessarily spell the end of his political career. After all, there is no natural successor in BW (people like Bareiß have their own issues and seem more focused on federal politics...) and Strobl is extremely well connected - both in Berlin and in Stuttgart. I guess being the son-in-law of Wolfgang Schäuble (who still commands great authority within the state CDU) does no harm either...

Of course, there is no guarantee that Strobl would fancy the role of 'leader of the opposition' in the latter scenario. It is not unreasonable to think that he might want to leave politics in such a case and get a lucrative board position instead. But this is not the same as being forced out.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I don’t mean to be disputatious on this issue (after all you’re German and I’m not), but surely it would be an overstatement to extrapolate the results of these state elections to the national level?

Absolutely if we were to look at these results in isolation. But they're part of a much larger trend (think of the 2019 European Elections for example - the GRÜNEN gained more than one million votes from the CDU/CSU) that has only accelerated since 2018-19.

After all, Kretschmann is, as per my understanding, on the right wing of the Green Party (and an elderly white man to boot!), who  has taken a fairly unsympathetic line towards refugees and has banned the burqa.

I would not call his position on refugees 'fairly unsympathetic' (he repeatedly called for admitting more asylum seekers from Moria) and his government banned the burqa for school children and teachers only (a CDU demand he had to defend as minister-president) - but sure, he definitely belongs to the right (or, as they call themselves: realist) wing of the party. No doubt. But consider that the CDU in BW is also more right-wing than the CDU in e.g. Schleswig-Holstein, Niedersachsen, or Hamburg. And the same is true for the FDP etc. - it is a BW thing and rooted in a strong Pietist tradition that has wielded considerable influence over all state parties there. And if a moderate like Kretschmann can convince a conservative electorate, it seems not unreasonable to assume that a not-so-moderate candidate elsewhere could convince a not-so-conservative electorate.

Of course, there are more factors involved than party ideology. Kretschmann's persona was definitely of great importance as well.

I assume this is not particularly representative of where the federal Green Party wants to go?

The leadership: Perhaps (the temptation of becoming a Volkspartei is definitely there).
The basis: Definitely not. Most are happy that this model works in BW but would not want to adopt it.

Meanwhile in Rheinland-Pfalz only just over 10% of CDU switchers went to the Greens (as per the diagram in one of the posts above). Surely this is too low a percentage to make generalisations at the national level, especially since (again according to that diagram), 10% of the Greens’ new voters were made up of AfD switchers, yet it hardly seems likely that the AfD will suffer major losses in that direction at the federal level.

Right. That's why I agree with you that one cannot simply extrapolate these results but has to look at the more long-term trends (and their strategic implications):

- There is a growing number of CDU-GRÜNE switchers both in national (federal + EU) and in important state elections (with BW being the most notable example).
- There are reasons to assume that this number will only become larger once the current pandemic fades into the background and climate change concerns begin to dominate the political agenda again.
- It is obvious that the GRÜNEN are an increasingly attractive alternative to a traditional CDU electorate (that has grown more environmentally conscious and socially liberal over the years).
- With the SPD in decline (also for demographic reasons), the GRÜNEN might be the only party with realistic chances to beat the CDU in the battle for the Chancellorship.

It makes sense for the CDU to react to these trends. Even if they were two lose two voters to the AfD for every GRÜNE voter they gain, it would still be a strategic net benefit and likely to prevent a center-left majority.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Next election: Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, June 6, 2021

Governed by a CDU-SPD-Green coalition called "Kenya coalition" (sometimes also referred to as "Afghanistan coalition", mostly by its opponents) under Minister President Dr. Reiner Haseloff (CDU), who also happens to be the current Bundesrat President until November 1, 2021, according to schedule.

Here's a very brief summary of Governor Haseloff's tenure:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/reinerhaseloff/status/1372601012914163720

Or in other words:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

What does covfefe actually mean in German?

😆 😂 🤣

[President Johnson]

Winfried Kretschman and Greens in BaWü are expected to announce their decision with whom to start coalition negotiations tomorrow. Either a continuation with the (weakened) CDU or a trafficlight coalition with SDP and FDP. There were talks with all four potential partners since the election, which went over pretty smoothly with no insider stuff leaking. All sides just said the talks were constructive and occurred in good faith. So it's pretty much 50/50 at this point, though I expect negotiations with the CDU. However, I hope for a Green-SPD-FDP government.

In RP, there are already talks going on between SPD, Greens and FDP to continue the governing coalition.

[Astatine]

Winfried Kretschman and Greens in BaWü are expected to announce their decision with whom to start coalition negotiations tomorrow. Either a continuation with the (weakened) CDU or a trafficlight coalition with SDP and FDP. There were talks with all four potential partners since the election, which went over pretty smoothly with no insider stuff leaking. All sides just said the talks were constructive and occurred in good faith. So it's pretty much 50/50 at this point, though I expect negotiations with the CDU. However, I hope for a Green-SPD-FDP government.

In RP, there are already talks going on between SPD, Greens and FDP to continue the governing coalition.

Aaand... it's gonna be another green-black coalition.

[President Johnson]

Winfried Kretschman and Greens in BaWü are expected to announce their decision with whom to start coalition negotiations tomorrow. Either a continuation with the (weakened) CDU or a trafficlight coalition with SDP and FDP. There were talks with all four potential partners since the election, which went over pretty smoothly with no insider stuff leaking. All sides just said the talks were constructive and occurred in good faith. So it's pretty much 50/50 at this point, though I expect negotiations with the CDU. However, I hope for a Green-SPD-FDP government.

In RP, there are already talks going on between SPD, Greens and FDP to continue the governing coalition.

Aaand... it's gonna be another green-black coalition.

I knew this was coming. Too bad, since a trafficlight coalition would have been a true chance for innovation, environmental protection and social safety in one package. I'm disappointed.

[Tender Branson]

New Sachsen (Saxony) poll from the „Sächsische Zeitung“:

AfD: 30 Prozent (+2.5 since 2019 election)
CDU: 27 Prozent (-5)
Greens: 12 Prozent (+3.5)
Left: 10 Prozent (-0.5)
SPD: 7 Prozent (-1)
FDP: 7 Prozent (+2.5)
Others: 7 Prozent

https://www.saechsische.de/sachsen/sonntagsfrage-sachsen-wahltrend-michael-kretschmer-5251636.html

[Maik Otter]

Germanys State Elections become more and more a surprise pack. The predictions are harder to make every time. The Saxony-Anhalt State Diet election will be held on Sonday, June 6th 2021 (77th D Day anniversary). In Saxony-Anhalt is very unsual that the same Gouvernment  [British English] in terms of parties coalitions, will be in power before and after an State Diet election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Germanys State Elections become more and more a surprise pack. The predictions are harder to make every time. The Saxony-Anhalt State Diet election will be held on Sonday, June 6th 2021 (77th D Day anniversary). In Saxony-Anhalt is very unsual that the same Gouvernment  [British English] in terms of parties coalitions, will be in power before and after an State Diet election.

That's correct. The only time a Saxony-Anhalt state government was "re-elected" was in 2011, when the back-red coalition could and did carry on its work, albeit under a new governor: Wolfgang Böhmer's successor, Reiner Haseloff.

[Maik Otter]

2 landräte elections will take place on the 25 th of April 2021. Both positions are occupied trough SPD members.

MV
State Circle of North Western Mecklenburg (NWM)
incumbent: Kerstin Weiß (woman)
° boardered to my own Circle of the Lauenburg Duchy (RZ)

TH
State Circle of Nordhausen (NDH)
incumbent: Matthias Jendricke (man)


source
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/kw_kalender.html