🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?

All the terms I listed were or are actually in use. "Police coalition" isn't one of them.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?

All the terms I listed were or are actually in use. "Police coalition" isn't one of them.

'Spain coalition' is/was? I must admit that I never heard of this one.

[Tender Branson]

So here are my predictions for the state elections today:

Baden-Württemberg

34.5% Greens (ca. +4%)
23.5% CDU (ca. -3.5%)
14.0% AfD (ca. -1%)
11.0% SPD (ca. -1.5%)
10.0% FDP (ca. +1.5%)
  2.5% Left (ca. -0.5%)
  2.0% FW (ca. +2%)
  2.5% Others

Turnout: 68% (-2.5%)

Rheinland-Pfalz

32.5% SPD (ca. -3.5%)
28.5% CDU (ca. -3.5%)
11.0% AfD (ca. -1.5%)
11.0% Greens (ca. +5.5%)
  7.5% FDP (ca. +1.5%)
  4.0% FW (ca. +2%)
  2.5% Left (ca. -0.5%)
  3.0% Others

Turnout: 67% (-3.5%)

[Tender Branson]

Polls in the 2 states are now open (and close at 6pm).

[Kabam]

Baden-Württemberg

Grüne 33.5
CDU 23.5
AfD 12
FDP 11.5
SPD 10.5
Linke 3
Others 6

Rheinland-Pfalz

SPD 34
CDU 28
AfD 10.5
Grüne 9.5
FDP 7
Freie Wähler 4.5
Linke 3
Others 3.5

[President Johnson]

Predictions:

Baden-Württemberg:
Greens: 34.5%
CDU: 25.1%
AfD: 12.0%
SPD: 10.5%
FDP: 9.0%


Rheinland-Pfalz:
SPD: 32.7%
CDU: 28.9%
Greens: 10.5%
AfD: 7.8%
FDP: 7.0%

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?

All the terms I listed were or are actually in use. "Police coalition" isn't one of them.

'Spain coalition' is/was? I must admit that I never heard of this one.

It was a theoretical option in M-V in 2006 (https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/schwerin_aid_115977.html) and is a thing in a local council somewhere.

My predictions:

BW:
Greens 33.6
CDU 25.1
AfD 13.2
SPD 11.6
FDP 10.8
Left: 3.4

RLP:
SPD 32.1
CDU 27.9
Greens 10.2
AfD 8.8
FDP 7.4
FW 4.6
Left 3.5

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Results in Germany are counted pretty quickly, right? We should more or less know the unofficial result before midnight? When can we expect an official result (a few days, a week, etc.)?

[Tender Branson]

Results in Germany are counted pretty quickly, right? We should more or less know the unofficial result before midnight? When can we expect an official result (a few days, a week, etc.)?

In 2011, the preliminary final result came at 10:20pm (or 22:20 Uhr) in BW.

This time, there are much more postal votes to count, so the results could come after midnight or tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

The weather today is pretty sh#tty here and in both states, which means turnout could be lower in the 60-65% range, after 70% in 2016.

That is supported by reports in the SWR.de live ticker.

[urutzizu]

Yeah, I just voted in my (neoliberal coastal elitist greens and FDP loving) precinct and the polling station was totally empty except for yours truly and the election helpers. Obviously most people vote by mail already, but I guess the result will be that the exit polls will have a much worse sample than usual, so probably take them with a grain of salt.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I just voted in my (neoliberal coastal elitist greens and FDP loving) precinct and the polling station was totally empty except for yours truly and the election helpers. Obviously most people vote by mail already, but I guess the result will be that the exit polls will have a much worse sample than usual, so probably take them with a grain of salt.

Aren’t FoGruWahlen and Infratest dimap accounting for the 2/3rds postal voters today, by calling postal voters and asking them how they voted ?

[urutzizu]

Yeah, I just voted in my (neoliberal coastal elitist greens and FDP loving) precinct and the polling station was totally empty except for yours truly and the election helpers. Obviously most people vote by mail already, but I guess the result will be that the exit polls will have a much worse sample than usual, so probably take them with a grain of salt.

Aren’t FoGruWahlen and Infratest dimap accounting for the 2/3rds postal voters today, by calling postal voters and asking them how they voted ?

I think so, but I guess that is more inaccurate than traditional exit polls because they cannot track and compare per precinct then? I don't exactly understand how exactly they do the mail-in survey, but I definitely read elsewhere also that the 18:00 prognosis will be more inaccurate this time round.

[President Johnson]

Just came back from the voting booth. Actually wanted to vote by mail, but I missed requesting a ballot in advance and actually prefer going to the polling station. No waiting line, and it was done in a few minutes despite Covid safety measures.

It was great to vote for a personal friend from my early days in the party, who's running as the SPD's candidate in our district (BaWü just has one vote for a candidate and party, and the seat allocation is kinda complicated). It's possible he actually gets in, though not easy. With that being said, as a 26 year old city council member he ran an incredible campaign over the past year with countless digital events, knocked on thousands of doors and actually invited voters to his home under Covid measures. I did my part to help him within the range of my possibilities. We'll havr to see what happens now, but he definitely deserves a win.

[Tender Branson]

Which are the districts/cities of you 2 guys ?

[President Johnson]

Which are the districts/cities of you 2 guys ?

Mine is Leonberg-Herrenberg (German Wikipedia). Essentially the whole Landkreis (county) with Böblingen-Sindelfingen excluded, which is an own district in state elections (but not at the federal level).

[Tender Branson]

20% turnout in BW until 2pm.

+ ca. 36% postal voters.

If 90% of those postal votes are returned, that’s about 32%.

So, ca. 52% have voted until 2pm.

[President Johnson]

Interesting exit polls via ARD: The COVID pandemic is not the dominating issue. Economy, climate, social safety and eduction are ahead of the pandemic.

[Tender Branson]

2 minutes until exit polls !

[Astatine]

FGW exit polls:

BW:

Greens: 31.5
CDU: 23
AfD: 12.5
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 11
Left: 3.5
FW: 3

RLP:

SPD: 33.5
CDU: 25.5
AfD: 10.5
FDP: 6.5
Greens: 9.5
Left: 3
FW: 5.5

[President Johnson]

Numbers could change though, as this is just a prognosis. But if it holds, very bad for the CDU. I hope Greens and SPD get to a majority in BaWü. It's very close at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Good results for FW in both states !

Pretty underwhelming for everyone else really (except for the Greens and FDP in BaWü).

[Astatine]

Traffic light is almost safe in RLP, another theoretical options is SPD-Greens-FW (red-green-orange...  idk what flag that would be? Burkina Faso?).

Disaster for the CDU.

[President Johnson]

Turnout in BW is estimated at 62%, RP at 70%. That's less than in 2016. But would be very high by American standards.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

FGW exit polls:

BW:

Greens: 31.5
CDU: 23
AfD: 12.5
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 11
Left: 3.5
FW: 3

SPD on the 5th place. That's a new all-time low...