So... Who won?

[pops]

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Our rivals (Russia & China) and anyone else who benefits from a divided and antagonistic America.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Trump. The Senate is more valuable than the House. I worry the Dem house will get the same treatment as Republicans after 2010.

[Jeffster]

Trump. The Senate is more valuable than the House. I worry the Dem house will get the same treatment as Republicans after 2010.

Why stick with Pelosi, she is already hated by a sizable portion of the country? Wouldn't they be better off with some fresh face, that doesn't have all that baggage? It's going to be Trump vs. Pelosi in the battle for public opinion, at least until the Democrats pick a Presidential nominee.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Trump. The Senate is more valuable than the House. I worry the Dem house will get the same treatment as Republicans after 2010.

Why stick with Pelosi, she is already hated by a sizable portion of the country? Wouldn't they be better off with some fresh face, that doesn't have all that baggage? It's going to be Trump vs. Pelosi in the battle for public opinion, at least until the Democrats pick a Presidential nominee.

The time to dump Pelosi was after 2010. Pelosi was an effective Speaker but a poor party leader. Obviously, keeping her was based on her effectiveness and not her popularity. If anyone should be dumped, it's Schumer. The Senate performance was abysmal. Don't choose leaders based on who the GOP propaganda machine hates. The next one will be just as reviled. Pelosi made her comeback, let her at least see this term through.

[afleitch]

Barring Florida, the Democrats.

Clinton states secure.
Rust belt brought back (with good voter contact info for 2020)

[Hammy]

We all lost since Pelosi plans on "bipartisanship"

[President Johnson]

Tend to Republicans. I'm really disappointed. They picked up key senate races and won governorships they should have lost (especially Florida). The House is closer than expected and could go either way in 2020.

I start to believe Trump will be reelected, keep the senate with some losses in 2020, the House will be close either way. Democrats win back congress entirely in 2022 and have a trifecta in 2024. Just a feeling.

[Reaganfan]

Tend to Republicans. I'm really disappointed. They picked up key senate races and won governorships they should have lost (especially Florida). The House is closer than expected and could go either way in 2020.

I start to believe Trump will be reelected, keep the senate with some losses in 2020, the House will be close either way. Democrats win back congress entirely in 2022 and have a trifecta in 2024. Just a feeling.

You guys don't have the spark as of late. Jon Tester holds a rally and 20 people show up. Rosendale holds a rally and 1,000 show up.

Trump comes to Cleveland the other day and gets 20,000 people. Biden came to Parma, OH and 200 showed up. I found out about it after the fact.

[pikachu]

The Senate results are disappointing, as are Florida and Ohio governorships, but the answer clearly has to be the Democrats, right? They control a chamber of Congress now, which they didn't before, and if you asked a year ago, I really doubt this is a result Republicans wanted. Don't overthink it.

[Mechavada]

Probably the GOP.  They won several Governor's races that Democrats poured significant resources into (but still lost Kansas!) and at worst seem to have broke even on their Senate seats.  Democrats won the House but it definitely does not seem to be a mandate majority.

A few things:

1. Yes suburb trends are real but they are not the only part of the picture.  You don't have to go after suburbs and "surrender" blue collar industrial areas.  Believe it or not you can go after both.  Just ask Sherrod Brown.  Or Amy Klobuchar.

2. Democrats seem to struggle to understand the difference between arrogance and confidence.  We saw the same attitude going into the 2018 elections that we saw going into 2014 and 2016.  It really felt like we witnessed a lot of people saying something was just going to happen because they thought if they said it was going to happen enough times it would happen.  That isn't to deny the Democrats didn't try (I mean they won the House, Manchin got re-elected, etc etc), but next time they really need to take their weaknesses and threats just as seriously as their strengths and opportunities.

3. I can't explain what happened in Georgia or Florida.  Gillum and Abrams were SOLID candidates.  As disappointing as those losses are we really do need to keep perspective here: the fact that two progressive black Democrats got that close in two southern states is damn impressive.  This shows that Democrats can compete on their ideas in Republican areas and not be destroyed.

4. SCOTT WALKER IS DEAD.  THANK GOD HE'S FINALLY DEAD.

5. Trying to expand the electoral map is good and all but Democrats really do need to focus on regaining the "blue wall".  Democrats did alright in the Midwest (save for that Indiana Senate loss) this year and the results from several incumbents shows that this area isn't dead for Democrats.  Let me reiterate: Donald Trump won the election by only like a few hundred thousand votes in the Midwest (at most).  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (46 electoral votes total) were all within ONE PERCENTAGE POINT for Trump.  It's a bit too late to discuss what Democrats should have done in 2016 but it is early enough to say what they should do in the 2020 General: don't take the Midwestern states for granted.  Historically Midwest states have tended to be the difference between defeat and victory.  That will probably change by 2032, but I definitely don't think it will by 2020.

6. And now I'm going to talk about the one race that probably everyone will be talking about a little later: the surprise victory in OK-5!  I happen to live in this district and I have to say that victory here isn't surprising and that OK-5 could have been competitive earlier if Democrats had just focused resources here earlier.  Kudos to Kendra Horn and the apparatuses that supported her for going into a district that at first glance Democrats might have written off as Safe GOP in earlier years.  This is probably one of the best examples from last night of things that the national party really needs to be doing much better at: doing strong on the ground research into areas (even in GOP land) that are ripe for a strong Democratic campaign to win.  This doesn't make up for the disappointing losses in Indiana, Georgia, and Florida, but the fact that Democrats won a congressional seat in Oklahoma is a pretty damn good silver lining.

7. I'm not going to comment on the actual ideological/political arguments.  I think this election showed that elections are just as much about being smart with political branding as it is about the party's message.  You can have sky high liberal interest group ratings and still do alright in "red states".  It isn't about the positions of the candidates it's about their messaging and their campaign.  Hell just having boots on the ground in some cases can be enough to convince significant amounts of independents and lukewarm Republicans to jump ship.  More to the point, it's generally not a good idea to "give up" on getting people elected in certain areas.  If an incumbent is incompetent, if an incumbent is scandalous, hell even if they are flat out boring and aren't saying or doing anything, regardless of their location, that is the time to pounce.
Political campaigning isn't supposed to be easy.  In fact for some people out there it's a JOB.  In most professional organizations it's either expand or die.  It's time activists and officials in the Democratic Party start doing the same.  If you want more voters DO YOUR JOB and win those voters over.  Don't make excuses for why you lose elections.  That's what unprofessional crybabies who last six months in the office do.

Overall I wouldn't feel too disappointed if I was a Democrat.  Even with some of the defeats that happened there are some very important takeaways the party needs for 2020.  You ask me I think it's good that vulnerabilities are revealed this early into Trump's presidency rather than waiting for it to happen on Election night 2020.  That can't replace the lost opportunities that a Democratic Senate would provide (especially regarding Supreme Court nominations, blocking the Republican agenda, etc. etc.) but it at least can provide kind of an idea of how to approach the next General Election (both for congressional candidates and the presidential nominee).

[dead0man]

everybody because the ads will FINALLY STOP!  WOOOO WHOO!


Kavenaugh because the 4 Dem Senators in tight races that voted against lost (Donnely, McCaskill,Heitikamp and Neslson) and the one that voted for (Manchin) won.

[Mechavada]

everybody because the ads will FINALLY STOP!  WOOOO WHOO!

Aint that that the truth!

[Middle-aged Europe]

It ended up in a virtual tie because we had two opposing political camps who were both highly motivated and mobilized and who almost completely cancelled each other out. Democrats maybe had a slight edge in mobilization, therefore they managed to take the House and a couple of governorships in the end. For a true Blue Wave it would have been necessary for more Trumpists to be disillusioned and stay at home.

The 2020 election could be similarly close, unless the economy completely tanks and Trump loses significant chunks of his base until then.

[Person Man]

It ended up in a virtual tie because we had two opposing political camps who were both highly motivated and mobilized and who almost completely cancelled each other out. Democrats maybe had a slight edge in mobilization, therefore they managed to take the House and a couple of governorships in the end. For a true Blue Wave it would have been necessary for more Trumpists to be disillusioned and stay at home.

The 2020 election could be similarly close, unless the economy completely tanks and Trump loses significant chunks of his base until then.

This will keep happening until the end of this business cycle.

[Mike Thick]

I think that, if you were looking at these results two years ago, you would have to be pretty happy. The only reason we’re disappointed is that we’re looking at these elections through the lens of all the forecasts we’ve seen over the past year or so, which were a little rosier for us. In a vacuum, gaining where we gained and losing where we lost is pretty much what you would have expected post-2016.

It wasn’t a wave, but it also wasn’t a disaster like some are making it out to be. More of the competitive races broke to Republicans than expected, but the fact that Dems could afford to lose so many competitive races and still win the House speaks to how good their position has been this cycle.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Tie, lean Dems due to keeping down losses in the Senate, winning the House and toppling Walker.

[Panda Express]

I mean, the GOP/Trump lost the House and they did so with most people thinking the economy is great. That's embarrassing.

I was looking at Breitbart and some other Trump sites and they were not taking these results well. One, the narrative of "winning winning winning" is punctured when you, ya know, lose a Chamber of Congress. But I think there's a realization that the "Trump agenda" is roadkill. There's obviously a 0% chance of immigration reform/the Wall/Obamacare repeal etc. There's also a 0%  the cultural and demographic changes can be stopped.

Still, while the House results were fine, there was enough disappointment for Dems elsewhere and the prospect of bleak gridlock means that this "win" we had tonight was a weak one.

[Beet]

If you flip a chamber in a midterm it means you win. The Democrats won.

[The Dowager Mod]

If you flip a chamber in a midterm it means you win. The Democrats won.

^^^^

[Yank2133]

Democrats won.

-regain the house which effectively kills Trump’s legislative agenda and now can run proper oversight.
-They also made significant gains in MI,PA, and WI. The three states that put Trump over the top in 2020.

[muon2]

Investors think they won. Gridlock creates predictability due to no major change. The DJIA is up 1% at this point today. The health care sector seems particularly excited due to the Dem effort to put health care at the forefront of their campaigns.

[MasterJedi]

Both sides won. Democrats stopped the repeal attempts on Obamacare and the corporate welfare giveaways and can now fully investigate Trump with subpoena power. They also have won a lot of governorships back.

Republicans also kept the senate majority and can basically appoint at will.

[Virginiá]

Objectively speaking, it was a good night for Democrats, but it wasn't what they hoped for, and so the divergence between expectations and the results can make it seem worse You just can't lose the US House and bunch of Govs/legislative seats downballot and say you won, especially with the House being gerrymandered to keep you in power, on top of other structural advantages.

But Republicans have a good bit to be happy with too. Expanding their Senate majority will insulate them in 2020 and probably through 2024-2026. Redistricting-wise, FL and OH are wins, although I bet Democrats push for another redistricting amendment in FL for 2020.

[RI]

Trump won. A Democratic House, led by Nancy Pelosi, is the perfect foil for him, and a legitimate target for intense criticism which doesn't undermine norms, unlike attacking the press. The Democrats will inevitably overreach in their oversight capacity-- I can almost guarantee they'll try to shut down the government at some point-- and they certainly won't play ball on anything meaningful legislatively. Obstructionism will play well with the Dem base, but not the Midwestern voters they need to win.

At the same time, Collins and Murkowski have been neutralized in the Senate, and Flake is gone. The Republican Party can force through an Amy Coney Barrett now or any other judge/justice they want.