Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Calthrina950]

I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority.

You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes

I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate.

I wouldn't consider that "close".

The race would have to be within 0.5%

Close in the sense that it was under 3%. I'm not detracting from Sinema's win, though. McSally was probably the best Republican candidate that could be nominated in Arizona this year. Ward and Arpaio would have lost by much more. Arpaio, in fact, I think would have lost by at least 15%, the margin that he lost by to Penzone two years ago.

[pppolitics]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.

According to the CNN exit poll his net approval rating in the state is +5.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate

McSally won the votes on election day.

She lost the early vote (by a lot).

Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.

According to the CNN exit poll his net approval rating in the state is +5.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate

McSally won the votes on election day.

She lost the early vote (by a lot).

Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state.

They do contact voters that vote early and by absentee when creating the exit poll. See the description under Exit polls on the CNN Page.

[pppolitics]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.

According to the CNN exit poll his net approval rating in the state is +5.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate

McSally won the votes on election day.

She lost the early vote (by a lot).

Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state.

They do contact voters that vote early and by absentee when creating the exit poll. See the description under Exit polls on the CNN Page.

I did. It said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Telephone interviews were only supplemental.

That data relied more on survey of people voting on election day.

[NOVA Green]

Well, I did say some pages back that there were extremely interesting shifts in EV/ED voting habits in AZ...

Back when I was heavily looking at AZ-CD '08 SE, the Arizona Data Guru was predicting total TO raw vote numbers based upon historical data for Midterm elections....

He estimated that there were many more ballots outstanding than there actually were, but what we started to observe was that at least in this election, voters were tending to vote much more heavily early via mail, than had ever been the case for AZ CD-08.

Now, we can't say that AZ CD-08 in a House SE is necessarily representative of a trend within Maricopa County writ large, when it comes to EV vs ED and when ballots are cast, and whom is favored etc, but it's pretty damn clear that the whole "Bucket A & B & Pink Conventional Wisdom (CW) from political pundits and objective observers is really looking like a giant load of bullocks....

It will be extremely interesting to examine Maricopa election results in much more extensive detail once we get a final precinct count....

Unfortunately, I only saved a few thus far from the Nov '18 GE, and hopefully some of the rest of y'all have been downloading the various daily updates, since I don't believe we will otherwise be able to look at the daily updates to examine this more fully without these datasets....

I have at least the daily updates from AZ CD-08 staged on one of my hard-drives, so would be interesting to test this further....

[adma]

Is it just me or is Sinema insanely attractive?

"I wanna live with a Sinema girl
I could be happy the rest of my life
With a Sinema girl"

[user12345]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

[NOVA Green]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

Me and my wife were just watching a snipped of her victory speech and as my wife observed the GREEN outfit was likely not accidental, especially in a State where there are a huge number of Swing / Republican Leaning Indies, that are socially Liberal, not to mention a more Left-Leaning DEM base, that she will continue to represent Socially Liberal and Progressive Anti-Militarist policies, while simultaneously pursuing progressive economic policies, while still maintaining an Independent Arizona perspective and not follow the Party Leaders on all issues....

This is a big deal in Arizona, and the 'Pubs deliberately screwed over Higher Income Voters in DEM states, and then were banking their Tax cuts for the Higher Income Voters elsewhere was going to "seal the deal in 2018"....

House Results obviously indicate this created massive issues for the 'Pubs in places like Cali, etc....

In theory, this should have actually helped PUB SEN candidates in AZ and NV this year.... didn't happen....

Interesting thing about the Green Parties in Europe is that although they aren't huge fans of taxation as a means of funding Social Programs, they believe in increased Government Regulation and controls over business, as well as means to control to "race to the bottom" that Capitalist Economics has been enforcing throughout Western Democracies since the '70s....

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

Have late ballots been breaking towards Thurmond?

Yep. CA Secretary of State now has him leading by 4,000 votes

Sweet

Also, holy crud. Betty Yee is at 63.8% for controller.

[Skye]

A shame that McSally lost. I was really hoping she would win after the ED vote.

[smoltchanov]

A shame that McSally lost. I was really hoping she would win after the ED vote.

I prefer Sinema. At least in House she was a genuine moderate, unlike McSally..

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

[wbrocks67]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

October 5: Kyrsten Sinema announced on Thursday that she would not support Brett Kavanaugh's nomination if she were a sitting senator.

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-kavanaugh-blasey-ford-senate-democrat-10888091

[Gass3268]

We can expect our first Los Angeles County update this afternoon. Doesn't look like there is an exact time.

https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1061722040019824640

[wesmoorenerd]

We can expect our first Los Angeles County update this afternoon. Doesn't look like there is an exact time.

https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1061722040019824640

IIRC the only major race still uncalled in LA County is CA-39. This will probably be make-or-break for Cisneros, he needs as many votes as possible from the LA County portion of the district.

[Badger]

Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good.



https://twitter.com/YoungKimCD39/status/1062130986291318784

Such a shame that a palatable Republican with a potential future is selling their soul.

Palatable? She's like a Korean James Dobson!

[Badger]

McSally has conceded:

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

 

McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid.

[Badger]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban?

[Torrain]

RCV counting underway in ME-02
https://mobile.twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062348026134577152

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/thisdog/status/1062357051756765184

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/thisdog/status/1062357051756765184

Quite naturally: with RCV he loses, without - wins. And no one likes to lose)))

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/

[pppolitics]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/

No one gives a ****.

McSally probably bought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost.

[smoltchanov]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/

No one gives a ****.

McSally probably bought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost.

+100

[wbrocks67]

I'm skeptical/cynical about McSally. Maybe she's being nice right now because she knows she's incoming to the Senate either way.