Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[user12345]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

Sad Polluiquin can't win a trump +10 most rural district in the country when most other republicans who lost were burb stomped.

Per the article:
"An exit poll conducted on Election Day by Fair Vote, professors at Colby College and the Bangor Daily News found that of the 15,500 people who voted for Bond and Hoar and who ranked their choices, Golden would take 93 percent of the votes."

Congratulations Representative Golden!

[ltomlinson31]

[wesmoorenerd]

Rudy Salas must be kicking himself right now.

[Xing]

A small number of vote looks like it just dropped in AZ. Gaynor up 424. Might be Cochise or La Paz

It was Yavapai.

[wesmoorenerd]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

[Skill and Chance]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

He's clearly out in 2020 unless Trump wins his CD.

[Florida Man for Crime]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

"poll" - lol

Anyway, fantastic tightening. Hopefully there are still more ballots to count, and hopefully they are like this batch was. Maybe then it could be a shocker.

I am afraid though that maybe this doesn't include anything from King County or something like that, and they are just waiting to drop the bomb on us. First get our hopes up, and then disappoint.

[OneJ]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

Makes me sleep better at night. Please let Congressman Golden happen.

[ag]

Actually, how many votes left to count in CA 21? Given the turnout there, even relatively small updates could be decisive. Are we sure Valadao is, actually, elected?

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1061815563494744064

So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe...

EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote.

[Virginiá]

"poll" - lol

Anyway, fantastic tightening. Hopefully there are still more ballots to count, and hopefully they are like this batch was. Maybe then it could be a shocker.

I am afraid though that maybe this doesn't include anything from King County or something like that, and they are just waiting to drop the bomb on us. First get our hopes up, and then disappoint.

The image does say Kern County, although no idea if there are also other counties they didn't mention.

At this point I think it's fair to say that Democrats should make this district a top target in 2020 and just ignore the polls (that goes for the DSCC as well). Whatever polls they did do this time don't seem to be worth much, as they gave up on the district before the show even got started.

[Holmes]

CA-21 might have about 30k votes left to count? 2012 had 116k votes, 2016 had 132k, and 2014 had 79k votes. I'm willing to bet turnout will look closer to 2012 when all is said and done, maybe a bit higher.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1061815563494744064

So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe...

EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote.

The 3552 vote gain matches exactly with Cox getting 65.4% from 11,540 votes , so it does sound like 100% of this batch that just updated must be from Kern County. So Valadao will probably do better, unfortunately, in batches released from other counties.

[ag]

I’m sure if Salas turns it down in 2020, Hurtado will enter. There’s no way the DCCC will sh**t the bed on this again with so few other offensive targets left

Again, we first have to see if Valadao is, actually, elected in 2018

[Florida Man for Crime]

CA-21 might have about 30k votes left to count? 2012 had 116k votes, 2016 had 132k, and 2014 had 79k votes. I'm willing to bet turnout will look closer to 2012 when all is said and done, maybe a bit higher.

I don't know where you are getting the 30K number, but if that is accurate, and if those votes (plus the 12K that just dropped from Kern) were equally distributed to the Clinton-Trump 2016 vote and broke with the same %s, that would give Cox a margin of 4,353 in total (not counting the margin gain he just got from Kern).

That would mean that a best guess would be that in the end Valadao will win by ~1,024 votes, since he started with a 5,378 vote lead.

Since the batch we just got did break pretty much exactly in line with the Clinton vote, a best guess as to how the rest of the votes will break is also in line with the Clinton vote is not really unreasonable.

So looks like probably a narrow advantage to Valadao, but it is definitely close enough that Cox could actually win, if the votes remaining to be counted are a bit more favorable to him than that.

This is definitely a seat that in retrospect, DCCC should have put more resources into, and that Dems look very well positioned to flip in 2020. Lean/Tilt Dem for 2020 at least, I would say, if Valadao almost loses with midterm Hispanic turnout.

[IceSpear]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Zaybay]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not that it means anything, but Wikipedia now labels Sinema as "Senator-elect"

Warms mah heart and soul

[Badger]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

Maybe. But who else? There are posters here far more familiar with Arizona politics than I, but it's pointed out the Congressional bench is pretty damn bad.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Nhoj]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

Except Valadao is the one who is bankrupt. Cox might be a tax cheat though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061824499270778880

[KingSweden]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground.